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  #11  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 01:50 AM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
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Originally Posted by Terc View Post
Greetings fellow counters. I've been reading this forum for several months now as a guest and decided to finally register. I was in Vegas last week for a 4-day trip where I spent quite a bit of time at the BJ tables, so I'll start my first post with an interesting experience and then edit my post later and tell you guys a little about myself.

I was at the casino in Vegas which has all of the exterior of its glass windows stained a bright gold color. Game was 6D H17 $10 minimum with 1 1/2 decks cut off. I had been playing for about an hour with one other player and the count was neutral or close to neutral almost the entire time (BOORRRINGGGG).

The gambler playing with me finally gambles all his money away and right as he leaves, a group of 4 young players like myself (early-mid 20's) walk over and sit down. They seem unusally excited about playing, as if they have been planning this outing for quite some time. I exchange pleasantries with them and make friends with the chatty asian guy to my left sitting at second base.

I watch their play casually, and they all seem to be playing 90% correct BS or so. After about 20 minutes, the girl with them at the table catches a bad run and she loses 3-4 hands in a row. I notice that after each loss, her bet becomes progressively larger, almost exponentially. First $10, then $40, then $150, then $200. I use my best ploppy interested 'Tell me your secret' voice and ask the asian about this phenomenon and he simply replies, "we have a system we use," and he smiles as if this is a proven strategy. The girl finally wins a hand with a $250 or so bet out after a bunch of losses and reduces her bet back to her starting point at the table minimum.

After another 15 minutes of observation, I realize that all 4 of these people are betting exponentially more after each loss. Each of them bought in for $300, so I am genuinely worried that they will all crash and burn. I convey my concern to the asian, using my personal experiences of 'endless' runs of losing hands. He doesn't take me seriously and they continue playing as before. We go through a couple shoes and two of them wipe out their buy-in and get up from the table to watch from a standing position. The girl colors up with $100 or so in profit. Now it's just me and the chatty asian dude.

Shortly after my warning to the asian, he catches a run of losing 4-5 hands. His bet is out now at $500. As dumb luck would have it, he wins his $500. He is beaming with satisfaction, completely unaware that he was betting progressively higher into an AWFUL count (I don't recall what it was exactly but I know it was not even close to the pivot point). By then, I had been playing for a couple hours with no gains to show for it, so I was quite annoyed that this guy had sat down and won a single hand for $500 in less than half that time. I was considering wonging out, but I decided to stay just to see how the rest of the shoe played out for him.

Several hands before the end of the same shoe, he catches another bad run. That $500 bet comes out again and he busts. I can see his anxiety mounting as he reaches into his wallet for another set of benjamins. Almost visually sweating at this point, he quickly throws down another ~$500 bet and loses. His table chips are all gone and his wallet is empty. I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand.
Schizophrenic?
  #12  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 06:30 AM
tthree tthree is offline
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Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that "and then some" is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.
The OP outlined an even more aggressive style than the traditional martingale.
Win 1 bet progression: $10
Win 2 bet progression: $30
Win 3 bet progression: $100
Win 4 bet progression: 0
Win 5 bet progression: -$150
Win 6 bet progression: $50
Lose 6 bet progression: -$950

I know I don't need to go into the math to show why this is worse, if it doesn't correlate to the count, than a traditional martingale.
  #13  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 09:52 AM
Terc Terc is offline
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For the people asking why my outlook towards this guy changed over the course of the session, here's an explanation:

At first I was concerned because he was a young guy like me, so I felt bad for him. Then when his reckless betting was actually rewarding him with wins, I became annoyed that he was not getting an 'appropriate' result. When he finally lost, I was happy not necessarily in a sadistic sense to see him lose everything, but because I saw him lose with an unreliable strategy. If he hadn't lost like that, he probably would have continued playing that way believing it was a viable long term plan. Also, I don't know about the rest of you, but it does annoy me when people are betting near table max at negative counts and pulling natural BJ

As for the reference made to me being schizophrenic, I think you need do do some research on mental illnesses. I have neither delusions nor hallucinations; my description of this guy being visibly shaken by his losses was simply emphasized for the purpose of the story

Last edited by Terc; October 22nd, 2011 at 09:56 AM.
  #14  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 09:59 AM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Terc View Post
For the people asking why my outlook towards this guy changed over the course of the session, here's an explanation.

At first I was concerned because he was a young guy like me, so I felt bad for him. Then when his reckless betting was actually rewarding him with wins, I became annoyed that he was not getting an 'appropriate' result. When he finally lost, I was happy not necessarily in a sadistic sense to see him lose everything, but because I saw him lose with an unreliable strategy. If he hadn't lost like that, he probably would have continued playing that way believing it was a viable long term plan. Also, I don't know about the rest of you, but it does annoy me when people are betting near table max at negative counts and pulling natural BJ

As for the reference made to me being schizophrenic, I think you need do do some research on mental illnesses. I have neither delusions nor hallucinations; my description of this guy being visibly shaken by his losses was simply emphasized for the purpose of the story
Why worry about if anyone else at the table is winning or losing? It doesn't affect you at all. Ploppies have short term fluctuations just like everyone else. Don't worry about it. Concentrate on your own game.
  #15  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 10:08 AM
tthree tthree is offline
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I bet they are back at it today. Their confidence indicated they are up so far. Few of these types quit while they are up with a losing strategy. They wait until they are way down to admit the truth.
  #16  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 10:41 AM
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FLASH1296 FLASH1296 is offline
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I am one of the sole posters actually qualified to diagnose anyone.

It is not a wise thing to do - tossing about terms like "schizophrenic"

so "Cut it Out" !
  #17  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 03:10 PM
stopgambling stopgambling is offline
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i thought most of the $$$ are from the pathological gamblers, not from the masses of average small time players.TO ME ,THE CASINO IS A BUSINESS THAT PROFIT FROM PEOPLE 'S MISERIES.NOT TOO MUCH different from drug ,alcohol,tobacco .....etc....Sure ,nobody pointed a gun to their head to gamble ,but if it is there ,then people will go . I m sure they did extensive study to prove that it is a great business before they did when it all started!! i heard this dealer said something about my endless complains of bad cards and stated no one forced me to come !!!Good call ,The casino already knew ,there will be a good number of people that will get in too deep in these so called "games".So they profit big time ,yet we are the citizens that have to deal with the social problems??W T H???? If they can do it for their own gain,why can we?? I am sure if he was the one that was losing ,he would not feel good about it .So why would he be an a -ho and talk like that ???Wish he have to pay some kind of price for this just like everybody else.We all payed some kind of price for this industry,directly or indirectly .Well ,nobody said life is fair ,so i will continue to try to win from them for my personal gain ,do what i can to get what i can !!!!!!!
  #18  
Old October 22nd, 2011, 06:09 PM
AussiePlayer AussiePlayer is offline
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Can't recall who said it, but one of my favorite quotes from this site is, "There are other people at the table?"
  #19  
Old October 23rd, 2011, 02:44 AM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLASH1296 View Post
I am one of the sole posters actually qualified to diagnose anyone.

It is not a wise thing to do - tossing about terms like "schizophrenic"

so "Cut it Out" !
Well first off I don't take orders from you, and you shouldn't be barking out orders to me or anyone else here. Secondly you're making it sound like a threat. Lastly I was simply posing a question because the OP appeared to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. So I'm going to kindly ask you to please "cut it out" sir. I have a right to my opinion and I have a right to ask questions.
  #20  
Old November 13th, 2011, 05:57 AM
duanedibley duanedibley is offline
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I once sat down at a table with a 50 something year old guy from Texas who, as it quickly became apparent, was doubling his bet after each loss. After losing three hands in a row he won the fourth and proclaimed to the table, "That's what you call progressive betting, gentlemen." Someone questioned him about it and he offered a few more details and then said, "My son used to do it professionally." He then proceeded to lose $3000 in the next 20 minutes before storming off.
 

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