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#1
October 26th, 2011, 04:14 AM
 PierceNation Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: South Island Posts: 149
TC conversion in a deck or half deck sized slug

If you use a 1D TC adjustment, you have a running count of +10 with one deck remaining, fair to say a TC of 10 aswell.

Now what if you track a slug of fair size, say 1 deck of 10 extra low cards. Halfway through this slug your count is at -2, so the bulk of your best cards lie within said second half deck of slug.

Keep your TC of 10 or readjust? And if you did readjust would it be correct to divide 8/0.5 to get a true count of 16 and readjust your bets or keep your usual max bet and just reassess your indice plays?

If it went far enough, would it be better to readjust your TC with a quarter deck of the slug left?!

I can see the obvious necessity of this for indice play but not sure how it would work out for bet resizing...

Pierce
#2
October 26th, 2011, 04:22 PM
 zengrifter Executive Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 10,532

Quote:

RC 2

1.0 - 2
.75 - 3
.50 - 4
.40 - 5
.33 - 6
.25 - 8
#3
October 27th, 2011, 12:51 PM
 Nazgul Member Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 65

If you know that the RC of the entire deck is -10 then you are safe to readjust. If you are shuffle tracking then you are probably dealing with some unknown cards so it is safer to use the NRS.
#4
October 27th, 2011, 01:02 PM
 zengrifter Executive Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 10,532

I misread the OP. This where ST bridges into more art than science. zg
#5
October 28th, 2011, 07:04 AM
 PierceNation Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: South Island Posts: 149

With this particular example I know for sure that the slug composition has a definite extra 10 high cards (e.g the slug was -6 and it got mixed with a -4).

I guess it is more of an art. At a TC of 10, id be at max bet anyway, so would I go up and above that max bet for a 4% advantage in that slug and deal with the extreme deviation that will inevitabley occur..?

Or do i keep my max bet out, adjust my indices and just be happy that im putting my max out into a fantastic advantage?

At a reasonable betting rate of half kelly, id be betting 2% of my bankroll with this scenario...thats pretty high. Too high? Guess its a judgement call.

If I knew the slug had 8 extra aces Id probably do it.
#6
November 22nd, 2011, 10:00 PM
 Gramazeka Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: USSR Posts: 112
Nrs

#7
November 24th, 2011, 09:28 AM
 bigplayer Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: United States Posts: 401

Quote:
My first thought is that if you have a +10 True Count (High-Low?) you're probably already making a max bet so for the sake of safety I'd probably just ride the slug out without any bet adjustment.

Arnold suggests that using an alternative strategy to the NRS will get most of it's value without the need of doing any complex calculations. It consists of just cutting your bet by half if you get your expected drop in the count (big cards) before your slug is done and dropping your bet completely if you get 150% of your expected big cards before the slug (playzone) is finished.

Before you raise your bet into a rising count in a tracked slug you should be 100% sure your cut was accurate. Always err on the side of caution with regards to betting with a pure ST game. When ST shoes (especially bigger slugs) you get a lot more chances for big bets but often at just barely at the threshold for those big bets so you get some massive swings...this is why many ST teams will underbet those slugs somewhat because they know the increased opportunities will make up for the difference.

If you are small slug tracking (with bigger resulting edges during those) there is a much higher chance for error because very precise cutting is required and that itself calls for accounting for the possibility of error in your bet sizing.

I know many players who cut into an expected slug but missed it (putting the big cards out of play) and just kept on raising their bets as the small cards continued to come out only to find the big cards never came out. Many a bankroll gets destroyed when you ST and miss or get too aggressive with your betting.

BTW, you can eliminate the chance for error by cutting your slug to the 3rd (or 3.5th) deck instead of the 1st deck. You lose the benefit of cover BUT you basically turn the six deck game into a 1 or 2 deck game which allows you to use a very tight betting spread and a play-all approach which might fly below the casinos radar and if you cut the big cards to the 3rd (or 3.5th) deck the count should rise naturally right into your slug. Normally you get to make big bets 1 shoe out of 5, if you can cut a big slug to be the last deck to be played you will be able to make a big bet every shoe which changes the TC distribution and means a smaller spread will beat the game AND you will know your cut is correct because the count rises into it. Also, if the casino does inside plugging the slug you just played will always be the tops of the discards making it possible to recycle them for multiple shoes.
#8
November 25th, 2011, 01:58 PM
 Gramazeka Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: USSR Posts: 112

Quote:
 Originally Posted by QFIT Agree. I've run extensive sims on this and the cookbook betting method does not work in most cases. NRS does.

Last edited by Gramazeka; November 25th, 2011 at 02:09 PM.
#9
November 25th, 2011, 02:04 PM
 blackjack avenger Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,267

Half Kelly betting in an unsure situation is probably not conservative.
#10
November 25th, 2011, 02:14 PM
 blackjack avenger Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,267

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bigplayer Many a bankroll gets destroyed when you ST and miss or get too aggressive with your betting.
One does not have to ST in order to be to aggressive with their bank & have it destroyed. The left tail of the bell curve can appear at any time. The only defense is to bet conservatively so variance of existing bank is minimal.

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