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Old October 29th, 2011, 02:54 PM
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Default To be or not to be... randomly speaking

We talk about random shuffles, how many passes it takes, and about VP machines based on random shuffles, and on the possibility fre different things occurring in a random sample, etc., yet is there even such a thing as randomness in the real world? Can randomness be proven to even exist? And if there is no randomness in the universe, does that lead to a deterministic outlook, the possibility that the "fix" is in (on a cosmic scale)? If there is no randomness, can you be sure you really have the chance you think you have? Is there randomness for all practical purposes? How do you know?

http://www.bestthinking.com/articles...domness-exist-

http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~chaitin/sciamer.html

http://www.design-reuse.com/articles...ptography.html

http://books.google.com/books?id=ehl...page&q&f=false

http://www.math.ias.edu/~avi/PUBLICA...ANDOM/proc.pdf
  #2  
Old October 29th, 2011, 07:12 PM
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random ? i dunno, but far as i can tell it might as well be.
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Old October 29th, 2011, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
random ? i dunno, but far as i can tell it might as well be.
Unless of course you had the key to unlock the repeating pattern.
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Old October 30th, 2011, 12:57 AM
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Unless of course you had the key to unlock the repeating pattern.
yeah, no, lol, hey gotta read those links you provided, interesting stuff, this random thing. i know, errhh at least i think i know, like for instance, rng's in computers and stuff, they can get pretty random, but just not quite there, not completely random, is how i understand it. so does that mean people can't make truly random stuff? i dunno, but well just for the case of a computers rng, errrhh why can't we make a truly random rng? understand that, then maybe we could understand what random is or isn't, i sure don't know, but it's interesting, hopefully someone around here can explain a bit about the nature of randomness.
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Old October 30th, 2011, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
yeah, no, lol, hey gotta read those links you provided, interesting stuff, this random thing. i know, errhh at least i think i know, like for instance, rng's in computers and stuff, they can get pretty random, but just not quite there, not completely random, is how i understand it. so does that mean people can't make truly random stuff? i dunno, but well just for the case of a computers rng, errrhh why can't we make a truly random rng? understand that, then maybe we could understand what random is or isn't, i sure don't know, but it's interesting, hopefully someone around here can explain a bit about the nature of randomness.
For one thing, no one can see enough of any possibly random rendering to ensure that it does not repeat itself at some point. That is not to say that it is not random, only that it cannot be proven to be so. Also, in many things that appear random at first glance, a pattern appears on a larger scale, at least, that's what I have gleaned from some of the articles. Like you say, for all practical purposes something may be considered purely random. But what about the physics of it? Does everything have a cause in physics, and if caused, doesn't that make everything predictable, if only you could get your hands around the details of causation? I may not be expressing myself well, but don't exactly same causes have exactly same results all other things being equal? What in the universe is not the result of some sort of causation? The Big Bang, for instance, being the original cause for some scientists, or one of an infinite number of "primal" causes. I am beginning to speak randomly, so I'd better shut up before I disprove my own argument.
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Old October 30th, 2011, 11:01 AM
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Taleb (the Black Swan guy) has some interesting thoughts on randomness, which I tend to agree with.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy

Basically he thinks the real world randomness, namely the financial world, is completely different then the structured randomness of quantum physics (where probabilistic predictions can be made with a remarkable degree of accuracy) and casino games (where all the conditions of the game are known). And that its a huge mistake to model finance like if it was a game.

Personally I think this tends to indicate the financial markets are easier to exploit then casino games I believe he is correct, but having said that, maybe not all casino games have been modeled completely and totally correctly either - in a simple game like roulette or craps, its possible to take into account all conditions and thus can be modeled accurately, but in other games, maybe not so much.
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Old October 30th, 2011, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
yeah, no, lol, hey gotta read those links you provided, interesting stuff, this random thing. i know, errhh at least i think i know, like for instance, rng's in computers and stuff, they can get pretty random, but just not quite there, not completely random, is how i understand it. so does that mean people can't make truly random stuff? i dunno, but well just for the case of a computers rng, errrhh why can't we make a truly random rng? understand that, then maybe we could understand what random is or isn't, i sure don't know, but it's interesting, hopefully someone around here can explain a bit about the nature of randomness.
Yes, practically any computer rng is not entirely random. Some of this has to do with the fact that you often need to generate random numbers quickly (so a simple algorithm is required). Now, are some rng random enough that its hard to exploit, in all likelihood yes.

Here's an example of a once popular rng. Every 3rd random number generated had an exact correlation to to the first two random numbers generated! Something to keep in mind.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RANDU

I love this quote:

'One of us recalls producing a “random” plot with only 11 planes, and being told by his computer center’s programming consultant that he had misused the random number generator: “We guarantee that each number is random individually, but we don’t guarantee that more than one of them is random.” Figure that out.'
—W. H. Press
  #8  
Old October 30th, 2011, 11:51 AM
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Default Michael Larson, Game Show Legend

Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
yeah, no, lol, hey gotta read those links you provided, interesting stuff, this random thing. i know, errhh at least i think i know, like for instance, rng's in computers and stuff, they can get pretty random, but just not quite there, not completely random, is how i understand it. so does that mean people can't make truly random stuff? i dunno, but well just for the case of a computers rng, errrhh why can't we make a truly random rng? understand that, then maybe we could understand what random is or isn't, i sure don't know, but it's interesting, hopefully someone around here can explain a bit about the nature of randomness.
Frog, I think you make a really good point that random doesn't really mean random. The hard part is trying to figure out the pattern. Do you remember the game show Press Your Luck?

http://gscentral.net/larsen.htm


mmeyers
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Old October 31st, 2011, 01:35 AM
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Originally Posted by aslan View Post
..... But what about the physics of it? Does everything have a cause in physics, and if caused, doesn't that make everything predictable, if only you could get your hands around the details of causation? I may not be expressing myself well, but don't exactly same causes have exactly same results all other things being equal? What in the universe is not the result of some sort of causation? The Big Bang, for instance, being the original cause for some scientists, or one of an infinite number of "primal" causes. I am beginning to speak randomly, so I'd better shut up before I disprove my own argument.
well speaking of physics, as i think maybe legend has it, or at least according to some stories i've read, even Mr. Einstein may have had a problem with causation with respect to quantum physics, no? that 'spooky' action at a distance stuff, entanglement stuff, errhh i dunno, seems he had some discomfort viewing stuff through the lens of quantum mechanics, maybe? i think it might of had to do with his sense that causation had to be in the mix somehow.

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..Yes, practically any computer rng is not entirely random. Some of this has to do with the fact that you often need to generate random numbers quickly (so a simple algorithm is required). Now, are some rng random enough that its hard to exploit, in all likelihood yes....
and here's something regarding that, errhh well, for me personally, i've been realizing or finding that seemingly paradoxically but i guess it isn't really paradoxical, that the fact that stuff we want to exploit in the casino's is for all practical purposes random, errrhh well that fact can help us exploit that stuff.

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mmeyers
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Frog, I think you make a really good point that random doesn't really mean random. The hard part is trying to figure out the pattern. Do you remember the game show Press Your Luck?

http://gscentral.net/larsen.htm
lol, i sure do remember Larsen & Press Your Luck, can't remember all the details, so i want to review your link, but heck yeah, a classic sort of an advantage play, imho.
and, i'm guessing, trying to remember but here, wasn't Larsen exploiting the lack of randomness in something that was supposedly random, sorta thing? lol
edit: sort of another side of the coin, here where the fact something is supposed to be random but really isn't, lends the situation exploitable.

Last edited by sagefr0g; October 31st, 2011 at 01:45 AM. Reason: screwed up as usual
  #10  
Old October 31st, 2011, 10:08 AM
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blackjack avenger blackjack avenger is offline
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Default many questions

Is Aslan and froggie the same person?

Is non randomness another reason to bet 1/4 to 1/8 kelly?

If a non random jacks or better game occasionally holds out a 2 or an A from the deal. How many hands until one can realize it? How many hands until it matters in ev?

If we flip every penny in the world at the same time is that random enough? Are there enough Chinese to do it? Would the world survive?

Last edited by blackjack avenger; October 31st, 2011 at 10:11 AM.
 

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