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#1
November 7th, 2011, 09:28 PM
 flyingwind Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 425
The insurance puzzle

Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
#2
November 7th, 2011, 11:52 PM
 AussiePlayer Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 295

Could #3 be the Victor Insurance Paramter?
#3
November 8th, 2011, 07:29 AM
 tthree Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,277

Quote:
 Originally Posted by flyingwind Anyone want insurance? The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want? 1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76 2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85 3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ? 4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0 What is the IC of #3? What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4? How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
That's Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.
#4
November 8th, 2011, 09:14 AM
 neversplit5s Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 42

Here's an even simpler "perfect insurance count":

Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
Insure when the count is positive; don't when it's negative (at zero it's break-even)
#5
November 10th, 2011, 09:26 PM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 19

I found this somewhere.

"true counted" unbalanced insurance count,
IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
count tag for non-tens are +1
count tag for tens are -2

when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
C : number of cards dealt
N: number of non-ten cards dealt
T: number of ten cards dealt
number of cards in shoe = 312-C
number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
RC = -24+N-2T
N+T = C
probability of insurance win = P

after some calc,
TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
then (52+TC)/156=
by computation,
=(96-T)/(312-C)
this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
by computation,
=BR*TC/104
#6
November 10th, 2011, 10:34 PM
 NAP Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Midwest Posts: 108

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister I found this somewhere.
Like the post immediately before yours?
#7
November 11th, 2011, 12:07 AM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 19

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NAP Like the post immediately before yours?
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for

Someone can sim?
#8
November 16th, 2011, 09:49 PM
 bejammin075 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 38

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister My interest in that insurance counting system is, simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is, (in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for betting and playing, and that insurance count system for determining insurance buying amount. Someone can sim?
You'd have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you'll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!
#9
November 17th, 2011, 08:43 AM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 19

How about 2-man-team at same table?
#10
November 17th, 2011, 12:17 PM
 NAP Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Midwest Posts: 108

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister How about 2-man-team at same table?
Now you're talking.

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