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  #1  
Old November 7th, 2011, 09:28 PM
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flyingwind flyingwind is offline
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Default The insurance puzzle

Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
  #2  
Old November 7th, 2011, 11:52 PM
AussiePlayer AussiePlayer is offline
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Could #3 be the Victor Insurance Paramter?
  #3  
Old November 8th, 2011, 07:29 AM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingwind View Post
Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
That's Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.
  #4  
Old November 8th, 2011, 09:14 AM
neversplit5s neversplit5s is offline
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Here's an even simpler "perfect insurance count":

Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
Insure when the count is positive; don't when it's negative (at zero it's break-even)
  #5  
Old November 10th, 2011, 09:26 PM
Mersenne Twister Mersenne Twister is offline
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I found this somewhere.

"true counted" unbalanced insurance count,
IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
count tag for non-tens are +1
count tag for tens are -2

when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
C : number of cards dealt
N: number of non-ten cards dealt
T: number of ten cards dealt
number of cards in shoe = 312-C
number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
RC = -24+N-2T
N+T = C
probability of insurance win = P

after some calc,
TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
then (52+TC)/156=
by computation,
=(96-T)/(312-C)
this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
by computation,
=BR*TC/104
  #6  
Old November 10th, 2011, 10:34 PM
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NAP NAP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister View Post
I found this somewhere.
Like the post immediately before yours?
  #7  
Old November 11th, 2011, 12:07 AM
Mersenne Twister Mersenne Twister is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NAP View Post
Like the post immediately before yours?
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
determining insurance buying amount.

Someone can sim?
  #8  
Old November 16th, 2011, 09:49 PM
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bejammin075 bejammin075 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister View Post
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
determining insurance buying amount.

Someone can sim?
You'd have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you'll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!
  #9  
Old November 17th, 2011, 08:43 AM
Mersenne Twister Mersenne Twister is offline
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How about 2-man-team at same table?
  #10  
Old November 17th, 2011, 12:17 PM
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NAP NAP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister View Post
How about 2-man-team at same table?
Now you're talking.
 

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