Search BlackjackInfo

 Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com 2 billion round simulation? Is that enough of rounds?
 FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
November 8th, 2011, 08:23 PM
 iCountNTrack ChemMeister Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 780
2 billion round simulation? Is that enough of rounds?

#2
November 8th, 2011, 09:21 PM
 blackjack avenger Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,267
its about time you contributed something

Joking

If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?
#3
November 8th, 2011, 09:28 PM
 aslan Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 8,683

My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
#4
November 9th, 2011, 12:49 AM
 k_c Executive Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 624

If I understand correctly you are enumerating the number of possible card combinations that could possibly lead to an outcome for any player strategy for a round of blackjack for 1 player versus dealer.

For what it's worth there are 3072 possible unbusted player hands of 2 or more cards. If dealer stands on soft 17 there are 1677 possible dealer hands. If dealer hits soft 17 there are 1740 possible dealer hands. As number of decks becomes more limited there are fewer possibilities than above. Therefore for a single unsplit round there are up to 3072*1677 = 5,151,744 possibilities for s17 and up to 3072*1740 = 5,345,280 possibilities for h17.

If I am not wrong there are 15,450 player hands of 2 or more cards if busts are included.
If 2 hands are dealt back to back to account for pair splits there are (15,450)^2 = 238,702,500 hand combinations.
If the condition of both hands totaling > 21 is eliminated, that would leave 85,827,635 hand combinations to account for a single split.
Therefore in order to account for 1 possible split there are up to 85,827,635*1677 = 143,932,943,895 possibilities for s17 and up to 85,827,635*1740 = 149,340,084,900 possiblities for h17.

Adding more splits would increase number of possibilities exponentially.

fwiw that's how I would answer the question and I don't have any opinion or knowledge of what the statistical significance may be. I am sure of the numbers for a single hand and less sure of the numbers for a single split. Also I am sure of the number of possible dealer hands.
#5
November 9th, 2011, 02:07 AM
 sagefr0g Executive Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 5,141

Quote:
 Originally Posted by aslan My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
you really have an excel simulator? i gave up trying to figure out how to heck to handle splits, with the one i tried to make.
but yeah, the other thing was, if it ever was created it would have to run for ever, also i just didn't think it could contain all the data.
#6
November 9th, 2011, 02:15 AM
 zengrifter Executive Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 10,532

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iCountNTrack
This where algebraic approximated indices come in handy!
#7
November 9th, 2011, 05:49 AM
 QFIT Executive Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NO LONGER HERE Posts: 2,884

Quote:
 Originally Posted by blackjack avenger If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?
Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.
#8
November 9th, 2011, 05:52 AM
 zengrifter Executive Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 10,532

Quote:
 Originally Posted by aslan My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
Just re-build the Excel for algabraic approximation using the Griffin formula.
Excels over-heat running sims, could start a fire. zg

Here >>

Jensen Algebraic Index Calc (ZIP D/L EXCEL)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/Generator.zip
#9
November 9th, 2011, 05:54 AM
 zengrifter Executive Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 10,532

Quote:
 Originally Posted by QFIT Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.
How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg
#10
November 9th, 2011, 06:07 AM
 QFIT Executive Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NO LONGER HERE Posts: 2,884

Quote:
 Originally Posted by zengrifter How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg
As many as it would take to calculate correct indexes, instead of algebraic estimates. Which varies enormously depending on the index, tags, methodology and other variables. Unlike BJ simulation, index generators do not run a preset number of hands, which is why you see some indexes pop up quickly and others grind away for long periods.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Welcome to the BlackjackInfo Forums     Site Announcements Blackjack Forums     Blackjack - General     Blackjack - Voodoo Betting Strategies     Blackjack - Card Counting     Blackjack - Advanced Strategies     Blackjack - Variations     Blackjack - Theory and Math     Blackjack - Online Casinos     Blackjack - Stories Land Based Casinos     Las Vegas     Nevada - Outside Vegas     Eastern US     Southern US     Midwest US     Western US     Canada     Australia     Europe     Asia, Africa & Far East     Caribbean & Latin America Online Casinos     Reputable Casinos     Problem Casinos     Latest Promotions Miscellaneous     Other Games     Gambling Law     Blackjack in the Media     Site Discussion     News     Sports Betting     Investing and Financial     Anything Else

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:16 AM.