Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com


Go Back   Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com > Blackjack Forums > Blackjack - Theory and Math

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old November 8th, 2011, 07:23 PM
iCountNTrack's Avatar
iCountNTrack iCountNTrack is offline
ChemMeister
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 780
Default 2 billion round simulation? Is that enough of rounds?





  #2  
Old November 8th, 2011, 08:21 PM
blackjack avenger's Avatar
blackjack avenger blackjack avenger is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,267
Default its about time you contributed something

Joking

If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?
  #3  
Old November 8th, 2011, 08:28 PM
aslan's Avatar
aslan aslan is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 8,683
Default

My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
  #4  
Old November 8th, 2011, 11:49 PM
k_c k_c is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 624
Default

If I understand correctly you are enumerating the number of possible card combinations that could possibly lead to an outcome for any player strategy for a round of blackjack for 1 player versus dealer.

For what it's worth there are 3072 possible unbusted player hands of 2 or more cards. If dealer stands on soft 17 there are 1677 possible dealer hands. If dealer hits soft 17 there are 1740 possible dealer hands. As number of decks becomes more limited there are fewer possibilities than above. Therefore for a single unsplit round there are up to 3072*1677 = 5,151,744 possibilities for s17 and up to 3072*1740 = 5,345,280 possibilities for h17.

If I am not wrong there are 15,450 player hands of 2 or more cards if busts are included.
If 2 hands are dealt back to back to account for pair splits there are (15,450)^2 = 238,702,500 hand combinations.
If the condition of both hands totaling > 21 is eliminated, that would leave 85,827,635 hand combinations to account for a single split.
Therefore in order to account for 1 possible split there are up to 85,827,635*1677 = 143,932,943,895 possibilities for s17 and up to 85,827,635*1740 = 149,340,084,900 possiblities for h17.

Adding more splits would increase number of possibilities exponentially.

fwiw that's how I would answer the question and I don't have any opinion or knowledge of what the statistical significance may be. I am sure of the numbers for a single hand and less sure of the numbers for a single split. Also I am sure of the number of possible dealer hands.
  #5  
Old November 9th, 2011, 01:07 AM
sagefr0g's Avatar
sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan View Post
My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
you really have an excel simulator? i gave up trying to figure out how to heck to handle splits, with the one i tried to make.
but yeah, the other thing was, if it ever was created it would have to run for ever, also i just didn't think it could contain all the data.
  #6  
Old November 9th, 2011, 01:15 AM
zengrifter's Avatar
zengrifter zengrifter is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
This where algebraic approximated indices come in handy!
  #7  
Old November 9th, 2011, 04:49 AM
QFIT's Avatar
QFIT QFIT is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NO LONGER HERE
Posts: 2,884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjack avenger View Post

If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?
Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.
  #8  
Old November 9th, 2011, 04:52 AM
zengrifter's Avatar
zengrifter zengrifter is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan View Post
My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!
Just re-build the Excel for algabraic approximation using the Griffin formula.
Excels over-heat running sims, could start a fire. zg

Here >>

Jensen Algebraic Index Calc (ZIP D/L EXCEL)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/Generator.zip
  #9  
Old November 9th, 2011, 04:54 AM
zengrifter's Avatar
zengrifter zengrifter is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by QFIT View Post
Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.
How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg
  #10  
Old November 9th, 2011, 05:07 AM
QFIT's Avatar
QFIT QFIT is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NO LONGER HERE
Posts: 2,884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg
As many as it would take to calculate correct indexes, instead of algebraic estimates. Which varies enormously depending on the index, tags, methodology and other variables. Unlike BJ simulation, index generators do not run a preset number of hands, which is why you see some indexes pop up quickly and others grind away for long periods.
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:29 AM.


Forum Software vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2005-2011 Bayview Strategies LLC