
November 8th, 2011, 07:23 PM


ChemMeister


Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 780


2 billion round simulation? Is that enough of rounds?

November 8th, 2011, 08:21 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,267


its about time you contributed something
Joking
If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?

November 8th, 2011, 08:28 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 8,683


My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!

November 8th, 2011, 11:49 PM

Executive Member


Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 624


If I understand correctly you are enumerating the number of possible card combinations that could possibly lead to an outcome for any player strategy for a round of blackjack for 1 player versus dealer.
For what it's worth there are 3072 possible unbusted player hands of 2 or more cards. If dealer stands on soft 17 there are 1677 possible dealer hands. If dealer hits soft 17 there are 1740 possible dealer hands. As number of decks becomes more limited there are fewer possibilities than above. Therefore for a single unsplit round there are up to 3072*1677 = 5,151,744 possibilities for s17 and up to 3072*1740 = 5,345,280 possibilities for h17.
If I am not wrong there are 15,450 player hands of 2 or more cards if busts are included.
If 2 hands are dealt back to back to account for pair splits there are (15,450)^2 = 238,702,500 hand combinations.
If the condition of both hands totaling > 21 is eliminated, that would leave 85,827,635 hand combinations to account for a single split.
Therefore in order to account for 1 possible split there are up to 85,827,635*1677 = 143,932,943,895 possibilities for s17 and up to 85,827,635*1740 = 149,340,084,900 possiblities for h17.
Adding more splits would increase number of possibilities exponentially.
fwiw that's how I would answer the question and I don't have any opinion or knowledge of what the statistical significance may be. I am sure of the numbers for a single hand and less sure of the numbers for a single split. Also I am sure of the number of possible dealer hands.

November 9th, 2011, 01:07 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141


Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan
My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!

you really have an excel simulator? i gave up trying to figure out how to heck to handle splits, with the one i tried to make.
but yeah, the other thing was, if it ever was created it would have to run for ever, also i just didn't think it could contain all the data.

November 9th, 2011, 01:15 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532


Quote:
Originally Posted by iCountNTrack

This where algebraic approximated indices come in handy!

November 9th, 2011, 04:49 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NO LONGER HERE
Posts: 2,884


Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjack avenger
If one were simming rare indicies 2 billion may not be enough?

Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.

November 9th, 2011, 04:52 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532


Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan
My Excel spreadsheet simulator has been running for 2 months, 14 days, and a little over 3 hours now, but I'm sure it will soon give me a statistically relevant answer to my last query, that is, if I entered the data right. It's a little tricky the way I have it set up. Someone suggested I give in and get Qfit's blackjack simulator. What!? And miss all the fun?!

Just rebuild the Excel for algabraic approximation using the Griffin formula.
Excels overheat running sims, could start a fire. zg
Here >>
Jensen Algebraic Index Calc (ZIP D/L EXCEL)
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/Generator.zip

November 9th, 2011, 04:54 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532


Quote:
Originally Posted by QFIT
Creating indexes is a very different problem. And no, 2 billion would not be enough.

How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg

November 9th, 2011, 05:07 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NO LONGER HERE
Posts: 2,884


Quote:
Originally Posted by zengrifter
How many sim hands would it take to show a difference between extensively simmed indices and those approximated by algebra? zg

As many as it would take to calculate correct indexes, instead of algebraic estimates. Which varies enormously depending on the index, tags, methodology and other variables. Unlike BJ simulation, index generators do not run a preset number of hands, which is why you see some indexes pop up quickly and others grind away for long periods.

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