What is the value of this promotion

[mjbballar23]

Here's a promotion that I saw recently and was curious what you guys thought:

Grand Prize drawing: $80k car (probably closer to 100K but this is conservative)

Casino
midsize/midroller casino, slots and VP up to $5 denomination

Base Entries:
Each of the middle and top tier players club members were sent 5 entries in the mail. 1 entry could be redeemed every 6 days during the month, so you had to make 5 separate visits during the month to redeem the 5 entries that were sent to you. The drawing was on the last day of the month.

Additional Entries:
Throughout the month, you can earn 1 additional entry for every $5,000 coin in on slots and $10,000 coin-in on VP per day.

Situation:
-Say I could theoretically play $5 VP at 900 hands per hour with an hourly EV that is either breakeven or even positive.

If someone decided to grind $5 VP for the entire month, what % of the total entries do you think someone could earn? How about a team of 2 or 3?

please no political discussion or discussion of rigged drawings

[KenSmith]

I'll make up some numbers to work with. You'll want to revise my estimates with more reasonable numbers based on your knowledge of the casino.

Let's say there will be 1000 people present in the casino for the drawing. Let's say each person has an average of 3 tickets in the drum. That gives us 3000 tickets in the drum.

Doing $1 million coin-in on VP would only earn you 100 tickets plus your free 5, so you are still a big underdog.

If you want a serious chance, you'll need to up the action. Even at $5M coin-in, you're still not strong enough for my tastes. Just too many free tickets in this event compared to the difficulty in earning them.

[FLASH1296]

Here is a simplified reply:

It is worth just about "zilch"


p.s. Winner must pay all taxes and applicable (padded) fees and charges prior to taking possession of the grand prize.

p.p.s. Of course, drawings like this are sometimes rigged.

[shadroch]

Its hard to say without knowing the size of the casino.
I've been at car drawings at Trump that attracted thousands of people and had tens of thousands of entries. going in, I had about thirty tix and thought I was well postioned.
Been to one in Laughlin and there were less than a 1,000 people, although some had hundreds of entries.
I read an interesting story about a couple who won a Mustang at a casino.
It was a very limited edition and had a book value of $125,000. They kept it three weeks and put just over 2,000 miles on it when they decided to sell it. They put it on the internet for $110K. Nothing. $100K Nothing.
Offered it to a dealer and he was willing to go $65K. Another went $63K.
Ended up selling it on a television reality show for $67,000.
Months later, they get a tax bill on the cars $125,000 value and a late bill. Also turned out that the car had jumped their total income into a much higher bracket. They ended up paying almost $50,000 in taxes and late fees for a net profit of less than twenty grand.

[mjbballar23]

Originally Posted by FLASH1296

Here is a simplified reply:

It is worth just about "zilch"


p.s. Winner must pay all taxes and applicable (padded) fees and charges prior to taking possession of the grand prize.

p.p.s. Of course, drawings like this are sometimes rigged.

It's clearly worth more than zilch. I said 80k instead of 100k to account for the fees and taxes.

Ok so here is where we are right now:

$5m coin-in = 500 tickets + 5 freebies

1,000 people with 3 tickets per person on average = 3,000 tickets

EV = 505/3505 * $80k = $11,542

2 Players: 1010/4010 * $80k = $20,149

3 Players: 1515/4515 * $80k = $26,843

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by mjbballar23

It's clearly worth more than zilch. I said 80k instead of 100k to account for the fees and taxes.

Ok so here is where we are right now:

$5m coin-in = 500 tickets + 5 freebies

1,000 people with 3 tickets per person on average = 3,000 tickets

EV = 505/3505 * $80k = $11,542

2 Players: 1010/4010 * $80k = $20,149

3 Players: 1515/4515 * $80k = $26,843

What size casino are you talking about? I suspect your numbers are insanely off.Most casinos have tier memberships in the hundreds of thousands.
Keep in mind that the value of the car is added to your total income. Thats what you get taxed on in the end, even if you prepay the tax on delivery.

[KenSmith]

Originally Posted by mjbballar23

EV = 505/3505 * $80k = $11,542

$11,542 on $5M adds 0.23% to the video poker edge.
The variance is of course huge on the VP, and the drawing contributes more variance.

Originally Posted by shadroch

I suspect your numbers are insanely off.Most casinos have tier memberships in the hundreds of thousands.

But only a tiny fraction of the total membership will be present for the drawing. These numbers are not crazy for a small to medium size casino.

[Machinist]

Good luck!
An overlooked rule that negates a huge amount of tickets is "Must be present to win"

Machinist

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by KenSmith

$11,542 on $5M adds 0.23% to the video poker edge.
The variance is of course huge on the VP, and the drawing contributes more variance.

But only a tiny fraction of the total membership will be present for the drawing. These numbers are not crazy for a small to medium size casino.

The number of people present may not be far off, but the total number of entries is.

[blackjack avenger]

Take a look around on a weekend night, how much action is your competition generating?

if its a locals casino, everyone will be there! For drawing

Is there a drum you can look at and guess ticket number?

If your beating the game and this is extra ev great. I would be very hesitant in thinking this makes a game beatable. Betting on unsure things takes a massive bank.

Know what bank is needed on a break even VP game? Think infinite