
November 20th, 2011, 09:52 AM

Member


Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1


Hit or stay on 16
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?
What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?
Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?

November 20th, 2011, 10:27 AM


ChemMeister


Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 780


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace High
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?
What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?
Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?

There ya go, i only posted the single deck values and S17, but you can get them for any number of cards
http://code.google.com/p/blackjackc...downloads/list
Code:
///////1 deck, S17//////////
********************************************
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.657943433709
p_0 = 0.060306641789
p_+2= 0.281749924502
EV for doubling= 0.752387018413 ± 1.78680922523
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.657943433709
p_0 = 0.060306641789
p_+1= 0.281749924502
EV for hitting= 0.376193509207 ± 0.893404612615
************************************************
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 8
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.76350326193
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.23649673807
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.527006523861 ± 0.849861237973
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.681168316615
p_0 = 0.0624859167129
p_+2= 0.256345766672
EV for doubling= 0.849645099887 ± 1.74016077918
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.681168316615
p_0 = 0.0624859167129
p_+1= 0.256345766672
EV for hitting= 0.424822549943 ± 0.870080389589
**********************************************
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 9
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.769615756767
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.230384243233
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.539231513534 ± 0.842157571249
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.708318244314
p_0 = 0.0626698865513
p_+2= 0.229011869135
EV for doubling= 0.958612750359 ± 1.68237393247
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.708318244314
p_0 = 0.0626698865513
p_+1= 0.229011869135
EV for hitting= 0.47930637518 ± 0.841186966233
************************************************
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 10
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.790130953287
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.209869046713
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.580261906574 ± 0.814429935464
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.662971292784
p_0 = 0.0579720249632
p_+2= 0.197424029191
EV for doubling= 1.01272718025 ± 1.58037894169
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.744603945845
p_0 = 0.0579720249632
p_+1= 0.197424029191
EV for hitting= 0.547179916654 ± 0.801637146
***********************************************
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 1
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.879580663876
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.120419336124
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.759161327752 ± 0.650902510708
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.501690908078
p_0 = 0.0435060431592
p_+2= 0.148680599783
EV for doubling= 1.01214306557 ± 1.37228819686
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.807813357058
p_0 = 0.0435060431592
p_+1= 0.148680599783
EV for hitting= 0.659132757275 ± 0.722521947852
10,6 vs 10 is a very close call especially for mulitple decks for examples for 6D, S17
Code:
player's Hand 10,6
dealer's upCard 10
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.788304231586
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.211695768414
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.576608463173 ± 0.817020611856
player's probabilities for doubling
p_2 = 0.680144821752
p_0 = 0.0551878170108
p_+2= 0.186997458325
EV for doubling= 1.06396462977 ± 1.55377549531
player's probabilities for hitting
p_1 = 0.757814724664
p_0 = 0.0551878170108
p_+1= 0.186997458325
EV for hitting= 0.57081726634 ± 0.786752713016
Last edited by iCountNTrack; November 20th, 2011 at 10:33 AM.

November 20th, 2011, 03:00 PM

Executive Member


Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,277


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace High
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?
What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?
Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?

You push 0% by not hitting. I hope that helps.

November 20th, 2011, 03:17 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 10,532


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace High
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?
What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?
Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?

Its not even close. Just trust correct basic strategy, which we are guessing you do not know. zg

November 21st, 2011, 01:11 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Casino backroom
Posts: 1,118



November 21st, 2011, 02:45 PM

Member


Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 77


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace High
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?
What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?
Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?

Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (56). You can't win unless the dealer bust.
Pushing is impossible by standing on 16

November 21st, 2011, 02:48 PM

Senior Member


Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 449


Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach R
Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (56). You can't win unless the dealer bust.
Pushing is impossible by standing on 16

Also the reason you sometimes would hit on a 16 vs dealer 10 is so you will lose less, not to win.
Last edited by BJLFS; November 21st, 2011 at 02:51 PM.

November 21st, 2011, 04:49 PM


ChemMeister


Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 780


Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach R
Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (56). You can't win unless the dealer bust.
Pushing is impossible by standing on 16

I am sorry but this is not true, the odds are different
16 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.589511449401
p_0 = 0
p_+1 = 0.410488550599
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.179022898802 ± 0.983844907343
***********************************************
11 vs 5
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.566326835062
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.433673164938
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.132653670123 ± 0.991162450763
Basic strategy takes into account all possible combinations of playerHand/dealerHand , bust rate of the dealer is mythical figure used by scam system promoters
Last edited by iCountNTrack; November 21st, 2011 at 04:53 PM.

November 21st, 2011, 05:23 PM

Executive Member


Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,277


Quote:
Originally Posted by iCountNTrack
I am sorry but this is not true, the odds are different
16 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.589511449401
p_0 = 0
p_+1 = 0.410488550599
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.179022898802 ± 0.983844907343
***********************************************
11 vs 5
player's probabilities for standing
p_1 = 0.566326835062
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.433673164938
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= 0.132653670123 ± 0.991162450763
Basic strategy takes into account all possible combinations of playerHand/dealerHand , bust rate of the dealer is mythical figure used by scam system promoters

I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?
Last edited by tthree; November 21st, 2011 at 05:26 PM.

November 21st, 2011, 07:11 PM

Member


Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 77


Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree
I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?

I noticed that too, I think some people look way too deep for some kind of a quotion, or mathmatic formula to make something easy look complex. The dealer is either going to bust or not, that's why counters count, and understand the best times to do certain things. It doesn't matter if you have 4,7,9,12,or 16, you can't win if the dealer doesn't bust. There is a very long and complicated equation that explains why, and how gravity affects objects of all sizes, shapes, and weight. The bottom line is, if you throw a ball in the sky, it is going to drop.

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