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#11
November 21st, 2011, 07:54 PM
 iCountNTrack ChemMeister Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 780

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tthree I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?
It doesnt make a difference it is still diferrent see below:

11 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.574852433669
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.425147566331
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.149704867338 ± 0.988730728103
*****************************
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009

the odds will always be diferrent because they depend on BOTH the players's hand and the dealer's upCard
#12
November 21st, 2011, 07:59 PM
 21gunsalute Executive Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Area 51 Posts: 1,144

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tthree You push 0% by not hitting. I hope that helps.
Not always true. Depends on how alert the dealer is.
#13
November 21st, 2011, 09:08 PM
 tthree Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,277

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iCountNTrack It doesnt make a difference it is still diferrent see below: 11 vs 6 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.574852433669 p_0 = 0 p_+1= 0.425147566331 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.149704867338 ± 0.988730728103 ***************************** 16 vs 7 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.741662210131 p_0 = 0 p_+1= 0.258337789869 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009 the odds will always be diferrent because they depend on BOTH the players's hand and the dealer's upCard
You did it again, you used different dealer upcards for the 2 situations. You are comparing apples to oranges.
#14
November 22nd, 2011, 01:32 PM
 Cardcounter Executive Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Lake Tahoe and reno! Posts: 799

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ace High What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace? What percent will you win or push by hitting it? What percent will you win or push by not hitting it? Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
Hitting a 16 vs a 7 is significantly better than staying. Hitting a 16 vs a 10 is only marginally better.

With 16 you are going to lose most of your hands no matter how you play it you are going to bust the hand 62% if you hit it. But the 38% of the time that you draw a hand you will be much better off especially if drawing against a 7.

If you don't hit 16 against a 7-A ace the dealer will make a hand 75% of the time on average with those hands and beat you 80% with an ace. You will win 20%-25% of the time if you don't hit. There will be a zero percent chance of a push because the dealer must draw to 17 or higher.
#15
November 22nd, 2011, 02:55 PM
 iCountNTrack ChemMeister Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 780

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tthree You did it again, you used different dealer upcards for the 2 situations. You are comparing apples to oranges.
Ah, I misunderstood the poster's point i thought he meant 11 vs 5 or 6, he meant 11 composed of a 5 and 6. Nevertheless, the odds will still be different because as i have mentioned they depend on BOTH the dealer upCard and the player hand.

11 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.744468761037
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.255531238963
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.488937522075 ± 0.872318806118
************************************************** *******
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009

There is no systematic way to "explain" optimum decisions. Some playing decisions will sometime look weird, that is because most of the time we are overlooking some cases. A combinatorial analysis takes care of that by enumerating all possible outcomes.
#16
November 22nd, 2011, 04:59 PM
 tthree Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,277

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iCountNTrack Ah, I misunderstood the poster's point i thought he meant 11 vs 5 or 6, he meant 11 composed of a 5 and 6. Nevertheless, the odds will still be different because as i have mentioned they depend on BOTH the dealer upCard and the player hand. 11 vs 7 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.744468761037 p_0 = 0 p_+1= 0.255531238963 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.488937522075 ± 0.872318806118 ************************************************** ******* 16 vs 7 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.741662210131 p_0 = 0 p_+1= 0.258337789869 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009 There is no systematic way to "explain" optimum decisions. Some playing decisions will sometime look weird, that is because most of the time we are overlooking some cases. A combinatorial analysis takes care of that by enumerating all possible outcomes.
Thanks. I knew there would be some difference but also knew it would be fairly insignificant. Your numbers confirm this.

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