Martingale still a fallacy when you have statistical advantage?

[Midnightblues]

We've all heard of the martingale fallacy and how it is a common failure. However, I've considered doing a limited martingale type only when back counting and when I have an advantage.

For example: Backcount until the count gets to +1/+2 TC, then play one betting unit and double until lost until 4, a 1-4 bedding spread. If I failed at the 4th unit, then I would drop back down to one unit, to prevent losing money too fast. Here are my questions.

1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house?

2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?

I know that Martingale is a fallacy. I just wonder if martingale is still a bad idea during a statistical advantage. I scanned one book that encouraged this idea, but I didn't know if it worked and don't want to try it without input. Thanks!

[QFIT]

Yes, it is still a bad strategy.

[Midnightblues]

Originally Posted by QFIT

Yes, it is still a bad strategy.

Not much help, but thanks though

If anyone can offer a detailed explanation that would be nice, actually answering the questions.

[blackjack avenger]

It's always your bet at whatever the EV is, weather + or -

1 no extra advantage
2 adds great volatility because your not following the above, your bets won't correspond to actual advantage

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Midnightblues

Not much help, but thanks though

If anyone can offer a detailed explanation that would be nice, actually answering the questions.

The question has been answered 1,000 times.

[21gunsalute]

Originally Posted by Midnightblues

For example: Backcount until the count gets to +1/+2 TC, then play one betting unit and double until lost until 4, a 1-4 bedding spread. If I failed at the 4th unit, then I would drop back down to one unit, to prevent losing money too fast. Here are my questions.

Itr might be fine for a 1-4 bedding spread but it won't work for any betting spread.

[21gunsalute]

And even if you Martingaled "successfully" what have you gained?

[Zerg]

Originally Posted by Midnightblues

1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house?

2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?

1.) Your advantage on any given hand would be best estimated by the count. You are best off Kelly betting according to your advantage. If you base your bet based on Martingale, you will be worse off. For example, your system was "When TC >=2 martingale up to 4X, when TC 1 or lower sit out." You would be playing with a statistical advantage. If your bankroll were large enough you would win long term. I would guess your results would be similar to flat betting 1.5 units when TC>=2. *Note that you could easily improve (win more money in the same amount of time with less risk) using this with this ramp: TC 2 - 1 unit, TC 3 - 2 units, TC 4 - 3 units, TC 5 - 4 units.

2.) I would use the word "skew" to describe your results. If you do a classic Martingale, you will have many small wins and few catastrophic losses. With your 3 level betting system you probably wouldn't notice much of a difference though.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by Zerg

1.) You are best off Kelly betting according to your advantage.

With Kelly betting in the real world one faces a ror due to table min. If one bets fractional Kelly the ror is greatly reduced.

[ringlejames]

Originally Posted by Midnightblues

We've all heard of the martingale fallacy and how it is a common failure. However, I've considered doing a limited martingale type only when back counting and when I have an advantage.


1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house?

2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?

YES YOU HAVE THE ADVANTAGE

AND YES IT IS A GOOD IDEA

AND YES IT IS AMAZING COVER FOR WONGING


I personally dont know what these jokers are talking about.

Yes you have an advantage using a 1-4 martingale bet spread. I am guessing it is 1,2,4,8, bet spread???

Its stupidity like this that has not moved this game forward.

Probably more profitable even than normal bet spreading.

But of course it is not as profitable as betting max on all TC's +2 or higher wonging

although maxbet wonging at all counts does have a higher ROR

And I am quite sure that playing like you suggested has a lower ROR THAN ALL OTHER FORUMS OF WONGING IN... BUT I COULD BE WRONG