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#1
November 26th, 2011, 01:45 PM
 Midnightblues Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 16
Martingale still a fallacy when you have statistical advantage?

We've all heard of the martingale fallacy and how it is a common failure. However, I've considered doing a limited martingale type only when back counting and when I have an advantage.

For example: Backcount until the count gets to +1/+2 TC, then play one betting unit and double until lost until 4, a 1-4 bedding spread. If I failed at the 4th unit, then I would drop back down to one unit, to prevent losing money too fast. Here are my questions.

1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house?

2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?

I know that Martingale is a fallacy. I just wonder if martingale is still a bad idea during a statistical advantage. I scanned one book that encouraged this idea, but I didn't know if it worked and don't want to try it without input. Thanks!
#2
November 26th, 2011, 01:47 PM
 QFIT Executive Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NO LONGER HERE Posts: 2,884

Yes, it is still a bad strategy.
#3
November 26th, 2011, 01:53 PM
 Midnightblues Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by QFIT Yes, it is still a bad strategy.
Not much help, but thanks though

If anyone can offer a detailed explanation that would be nice, actually answering the questions.
#4
November 26th, 2011, 02:16 PM
 blackjack avenger Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,267
im with Q

It's always your bet at whatever the EV is, weather + or -

#5
November 26th, 2011, 02:35 PM
 QFIT Executive Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NO LONGER HERE Posts: 2,884

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Midnightblues Not much help, but thanks though If anyone can offer a detailed explanation that would be nice, actually answering the questions.
The question has been answered 1,000 times.
#6
November 26th, 2011, 02:41 PM
 21gunsalute Executive Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Area 51 Posts: 1,144

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Midnightblues For example: Backcount until the count gets to +1/+2 TC, then play one betting unit and double until lost until 4, a 1-4 bedding spread. If I failed at the 4th unit, then I would drop back down to one unit, to prevent losing money too fast. Here are my questions.
Itr might be fine for a 1-4 bedding spread but it won't work for any betting spread.
#7
November 26th, 2011, 02:46 PM
 21gunsalute Executive Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Area 51 Posts: 1,144

And even if you Martingaled "successfully" what have you gained?
#8
November 26th, 2011, 03:25 PM
 Zerg Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 44

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Midnightblues 1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house? 2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?
1.) Your advantage on any given hand would be best estimated by the count. You are best off Kelly betting according to your advantage. If you base your bet based on Martingale, you will be worse off. For example, your system was "When TC >=2 martingale up to 4X, when TC 1 or lower sit out." You would be playing with a statistical advantage. If your bankroll were large enough you would win long term. I would guess your results would be similar to flat betting 1.5 units when TC>=2. *Note that you could easily improve (win more money in the same amount of time with less risk) using this with this ramp: TC 2 - 1 unit, TC 3 - 2 units, TC 4 - 3 units, TC 5 - 4 units.

2.) I would use the word "skew" to describe your results. If you do a classic Martingale, you will have many small wins and few catastrophic losses. With your 3 level betting system you probably wouldn't notice much of a difference though.
#9
November 26th, 2011, 03:31 PM
 blackjack avenger Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,267

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Zerg 1.) You are best off Kelly betting according to your advantage.
With Kelly betting in the real world one faces a ror due to table min. If one bets fractional Kelly the ror is greatly reduced.
#10
November 26th, 2011, 03:31 PM
 ringlejames Banned Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 166

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Midnightblues We've all heard of the martingale fallacy and how it is a common failure. However, I've considered doing a limited martingale type only when back counting and when I have an advantage. 1. Is it advantageous in anyway to use a Martingale when you have a statistical advantage over the house? 2. Would this reduce or increase the volatility of blackjack by using this system?

AND YES IT IS A GOOD IDEA

AND YES IT IS AMAZING COVER FOR WONGING

I personally dont know what these jokers are talking about.

Yes you have an advantage using a 1-4 martingale bet spread. I am guessing it is 1,2,4,8, bet spread???

Its stupidity like this that has not moved this game forward.

Probably more profitable even than normal bet spreading.

But of course it is not as profitable as betting max on all TC's +2 or higher wonging

although maxbet wonging at all counts does have a higher ROR

And I am quite sure that playing like you suggested has a lower ROR THAN ALL OTHER FORUMS OF WONGING IN... BUT I COULD BE WRONG

Last edited by iCountNTrack; November 27th, 2011 at 07:11 PM.

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