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Old December 4th, 2011, 03:19 PM
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Default funny you should mention that

Quote:
iCountNTrack
ChemMeister

...If 200 mg of potassium cyanide is lethal, 100 mg is not a panacea.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...5&postcount=34
was watching a chit chat news show this morning, news folks interviewing doctors about this arsenic in apple juice thing.....
got me to pondering toxicology, a subject i know virtually nuthin about, among many, lol.
but the dr's were saying "parts/million sorta thing about arsenic in water, and apple juice, no big deal. far as apple juice and kids, maybe limit how much they drink a day, sorta thing."
whatever, it made me want to maybe study up a little on the maths of toxicology, maybe.
maybe get a clue as to how much 'toxic' gambling stuff an AP can handle, as well as variance issues for AP's. handled i know by Kelly stuff, but maybe just me, thought it was interesting.
  #2  
Old December 4th, 2011, 04:50 PM
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Default expense

One could look at a -EV game as an expense, but its worse then that because of variance.
  #3  
Old December 4th, 2011, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjack avenger View Post
One could look at a -EV game as an expense, but its worse then that because of variance.
there yah go.
if we play all bj, then we have, errhh i think it's about 70% of the time or so playing at negative ev, an expense.
so why you say it's worse than that because of variance? do you mean because the variance involved in the positive ev part of play could completely destroy our bankroll, or significantly cripple it?
  #4  
Old December 4th, 2011, 05:41 PM
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I've started to view variance as an even more critical factor than EV itself. Variance is what can turn a winning game into a loser. Double Kelly exemplifies this perfectly.
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Old December 4th, 2011, 06:11 PM
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Default its all about the variance

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Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
there yah go.
if we play all bj, then we have, errhh i think it's about 70% of the time or so playing at negative ev, an expense.
so why you say it's worse than that because of variance? do you mean because the variance involved in the positive ev part of play could completely destroy our bankroll, or significantly cripple it?
& the -EV

The -EV game would have variance. Those negative BJ hands also have variance. Even though; hopefully, the negative bets are small & few. The N0 is damaged regardless if the negative hands are BJ or another game.

Your bank could be crippled by the -EV of bets or the variance.

Last edited by blackjack avenger; December 4th, 2011 at 06:15 PM.
  #6  
Old December 4th, 2011, 06:20 PM
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Default picky

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Originally Posted by PierceNation View Post
Variance is what can turn a winning game into a loser. Double Kelly exemplifies this perfectly.
Double Kelly betting no long term growth
over double Kelly bank shrinks long term
  #7  
Old December 4th, 2011, 06:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
was watching a chit chat news show this morning, news folks interviewing doctors about this arsenic in apple juice thing.....
got me to pondering toxicology, a subject i know virtually nuthin about, among many, lol.
but the dr's were saying "parts/million sorta thing about arsenic in water, and apple juice, no big deal. far as apple juice and kids, maybe limit how much they drink a day, sorta thing."
whatever, it made me want to maybe study up a little on the maths of toxicology, maybe.
maybe get a clue as to how much 'toxic' gambling stuff an AP can handle, as well as variance issues for AP's. handled i know by Kelly stuff, but maybe just me, thought it was interesting.
I saw that, too. The one doctor was of the opinion that is wasn't even a close call-- his advice-- fagetaboutit. The other doctor just could help himself. Agreed it wasn't close....but.... just to be sure.... don't give the children any more than one 6 oz. glass a day. <--- Now, that's exactly what causes all this concern. One doctor tells it like it is (I think), but the other doctor doesn't want to say definitively... he shoulda been a lawyer. This second guy planted more questions in one's mind--- don't sue me--- I didn't say it was safe! The urge to kill!!!! j/k

PS-- the criterion should not be your professional opinion, it should be what you would do if your own children were involved. Then we might get to the truth! instead of CYA.

Last edited by aslan; December 4th, 2011 at 06:27 PM.
  #8  
Old December 4th, 2011, 07:30 PM
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Your body flushs most minerals on a daily basis, so very small amounts in water or food is not a problem. Some minerals are not flushed and build up over time. Ingesting tiny, trace, amounts of these over fifty or so years can lead to problems. I have no idea which group arsenic falls into, and am too lazy to bother looking it up.
  #9  
Old December 4th, 2011, 08:18 PM
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Default call ZG

c'mon... pesticide residue... GMO Seed stock...Fukushima Daiichai..
Chernobyl,still not "fixed"...Gulf Oil Spill... Arsenic, one more catalyst to increased mortality.
We are not wise enough to be stewards of this Earth, much less our human societies.
  #10  
Old December 5th, 2011, 12:22 AM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackjack avenger View Post
& the -EV

The -EV game would have variance. Those negative BJ hands also have variance. Even though; hopefully, the negative bets are small & few. The N0 is damaged regardless if the negative hands are BJ or another game.

Your bank could be crippled by the -EV of bets or the variance.
just for clarification of my lack of knowledge about N0, lemme ask.
the one standard deviation of bad luck that Brett Harris writes about in this link:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Betsize/theory.htm
where he says "Hence, N0[B] can be seen as the number of rounds required to overcome one standard deviation of 'bad luck'.", is that 'one standard deviation of 'bad luck' the same thing as 'one low standard deviation' ( ie. where 1lowSD = EV - 1SD)?

does part of what reaching N0 means that you have a 68% chance of actually realizing EV or better?
and so like for this N0 calculator: http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/N0.htm
errhh, if you get in 4*N0 hands, you'd have a 95% chance of actually realizing EV or better?
& if you get in 9*N0 hands, you'd have a 99% chance of actually realizing EV or better?

Last edited by sagefr0g; December 5th, 2011 at 12:24 AM.
 

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