Can anyone explain why basic strategy dictates doubling a soft 14 on the dealer upcards 5 and 6 while the strategy for doubling soft 15 is dealer upcards 4, 5 and 6? The player has 5 possible cards to make a hand of 17-21 in either scenario. Shouldn't the rule be either double on the dealer's 5-6 or dealer's 4-5-6 in both situations?
Question about basic strategy - doubling on soft 14 vs soft 15
- Thread starter gatorjuice
- Start date
Math says so.
Mathematically is proven. Billions of simulations were done in computers, so we should trust basic strategy and math. It would be impossible to explain your question and prove mathematically right now. But in order to answer your question at least partially.
In table below is represented mathematically your expectation. These numbers are already calculated and proven and you should stick to them. Bolded are best expectations.
(A,3 vs 6) stand (-0.14357) hit (0.140795) double (0.189743)
in this case double has the biggest expectation for you even though it is such a small difference in between numbers. Same goes for numbers below
(A,3 vs 5) stand (-0.15483) hit ( 0.117682) double ( 0.144734)
(A,4 vs 4) stand ( -0.20038) hit ( 0.059483) double( 0.06443)
difference is so small in this case 0.06443 - 0.059483 = 0.004947 , but still it is a better choise to double.
Basic Strategy is like that if you observe every single rule, edge against you will be about 0.5% on average. Not observing all of the rules or playing partially correct basic strategy will cost you 3% - 5% of the money wagered in a long run.
Mathematically is proven. Billions of simulations were done in computers, so we should trust basic strategy and math. It would be impossible to explain your question and prove mathematically right now. But in order to answer your question at least partially.
In table below is represented mathematically your expectation. These numbers are already calculated and proven and you should stick to them. Bolded are best expectations.
(A,3 vs 6) stand (-0.14357) hit (0.140795) double (0.189743)
in this case double has the biggest expectation for you even though it is such a small difference in between numbers. Same goes for numbers below
(A,3 vs 5) stand (-0.15483) hit ( 0.117682) double ( 0.144734)
(A,4 vs 4) stand ( -0.20038) hit ( 0.059483) double( 0.06443)
difference is so small in this case 0.06443 - 0.059483 = 0.004947 , but still it is a better choise to double.
Basic Strategy is like that if you observe every single rule, edge against you will be about 0.5% on average. Not observing all of the rules or playing partially correct basic strategy will cost you 3% - 5% of the money wagered in a long run.
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still doesn't seem right
Thanks for the reply. I have been following this basic strategy (and will continue to do so). It just doesn't make sense intuitively. If you have a soft 14, you have removed a 3 from the deck. With a soft 15, you have removed a 4. Therefore, the dealer would have a miniscule chance less to bust with your soft 15 vs soft 14. Using this logic, the chances of the dealer busting with a 4 upcard are less when you have a soft 15 vs soft 14. Maybe I'm thinking about this too much.
Thanks for the reply. I have been following this basic strategy (and will continue to do so). It just doesn't make sense intuitively. If you have a soft 14, you have removed a 3 from the deck. With a soft 15, you have removed a 4. Therefore, the dealer would have a miniscule chance less to bust with your soft 15 vs soft 14. Using this logic, the chances of the dealer busting with a 4 upcard are less when you have a soft 15 vs soft 14. Maybe I'm thinking about this too much.
If you have very small bankroll and you just want to have good time, in that case it is definitely better to hit A4 against 4 insted of doubling. The only reason is to prevent fluctuations, and losing your money fast. After all you wanna have good time!
In long run it is definitelly better to double down! Because that is positive expectation for player. When you have positiv expectations you should wager as much money as possible!
In long run it is definitelly better to double down! Because that is positive expectation for player. When you have positiv expectations you should wager as much money as possible!
gatorjuice said:
Thanks for the reply. I have been following this basic strategy (and will continue to do so). It just doesn't make sense intuitively. If you have a soft 14, you have removed a 3 from the deck. With a soft 15, you have removed a 4. Therefore, the dealer would have a miniscule chance less to bust with your soft 15 vs soft 14. Using this logic, the chances of the dealer busting with a 4 upcard are less when you have a soft 15 vs soft 14. Maybe I'm thinking about this too much.
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