Three card poker promotion. Advantage?

Cass

Well-Known Member
#1
My local casino is having a promotion for a few days that the three card poker table game. Is having double payouts. Ie: something that pay 1:1 now pays 2:1. I know this game has a high house edge because it has a 50cent ante on each bet. the table limits are $2-$25max. Can this game be beaten or should i just stick to BJ. I have no idea how to play this game. They have the same promo on there other carnival game I think it is caribean stud. This game also carries the 50cent ante.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
Game used to be called table slots,until someone picked up on the popularity of poker.
Real simple.You make two bets,one that your cards are better than the dealers,one that you'll draw a pair or better with your three cards.
Thats the game,in a nutshell. After you get your three cards,you either place another bet that you'll beat the dealer,or you fold.
Payouts should be 40-1 straight flush,30-1 Trips,6-1 straight,4-1 flush,even money pair.Then there a few side bonuses.
I don't know where the fifty cent antiecomes in,but if the casino is paying
2X the above pay schedule,I'd think its got to be in the players advantage.
Is it 50 cents a hand,or 50 cents a bet?As you make 3 bets per hand,its a huge difference.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#3
I predict this promo won't last but a few hours. Go bet $25 on both spots for the duration.

If they're paying double on all payouts, your edge is huge.
For example, the normal Pair Plus paytable has a house edge of about 2.3%, which means a payout of 97.7%. You'll be getting a payout of 195.4% instead.

With a $25 bet on pair plus, your expected profit per hand is $23.35 after the 50 cent ante.

For the Ante and Play bet, bet the max, and play every hand. Do not fold.
The expected loss on a normal game would be 7.7% of the ante bet size, but in this case, the expected win is $21.15 per hand. If they take another ante on the back bets, reduce this by 50c or $1 as needed.

So, flat-betting, and playing every hand, your expected win is $44.50 per hand.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#5
Normally, when you stay in and the dealer doesn't qualify, you win the Ante bet and the Play bet is a push. If you're getting paid double on the Ante bet, it's easy to see that playing every hand is well worth it. Yes, if the dealer qualifies and beats you, you lose two bets. But if the dealer doesn't qualify, you win two bets. If you beat the qualified dealer, you win at least 4 bets.
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#6
KenSmith said:
I predict this promo won't last but a few hours. Go bet $25 on both spots for the duration.

If they're paying double on all payouts, your edge is huge.
For example, the normal Pair Plus paytable has a house edge of about 2.3%, which means a payout of 97.7%. You'll be getting a payout of 195.4% instead.

With a $25 bet on pair plus, your expected profit per hand is $23.35 after the 50 cent ante.

For the Ante and Play bet, bet the max, and play every hand. Do not fold.
The expected loss on a normal game would be 7.7% of the ante bet size, but in this case, the expected win is $21.15 per hand. If they take another ante on the back bets, reduce this by 50c or $1 as needed.

So, flat-betting, and playing every hand, your expected win is $44.50 per hand.

Hmm this sounds too good to be true. I asked the pit boss how it works he said, "something that would normaly pay 1-1 is 2-1" I think it is for all the payouts across the board. I'm going to have to research this more next time I go. It doesnt start for a couple weeks.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#7
Cass said:
Hmm this sounds too good to be true. I asked the pit boss how it works he said, "something that would normaly pay 1-1 is 2-1"
To me that means that one of the bets will pay 2-1, but not all of the bets. I don't know how the game works really, but that's what I supspect from the quote from the PB.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#8
KenSmith said:
Normally, when you stay in and the dealer doesn't qualify, you win the Ante bet and the Play bet is a push. If you're getting paid double on the Ante bet, it's easy to see that playing every hand is well worth it. Yes, if the dealer qualifies and beats you, you lose two bets. But if the dealer doesn't qualify, you win two bets. If you beat the qualified dealer, you win at least 4 bets.
Ken,I believe you are mistaken here.
A dealer doesn't have to qualify to beat you on your first bet.
Say you have 9-7-5,and dealer has 10-7-5,he doesn't qualify,but you lose your first bet,lose your pair plus and push the second bet.If he had a Q-7-5,you'd lose all three if you stay in,2 if you had folded.
I can't believe this promo will double all wqinning bets.If they did,I'd be on a jet in no time.
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#9
ScottH said:
To me that means that one of the bets will pay 2-1, but not all of the bets. I don't know how the game works really, but that's what I supspect from the quote from the PB.

I called the PB to confirm it is double pay on everything! Ante is 50cents. So this gives the player a huge advantage. i cant wait till it starts!
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#11
Cass said:
I called the PB to confirm it is double pay on everything! Ante is 50cents. So this gives the player a huge advantage. i cant wait till it starts!
Hopefully they don't realize how bad this is for them and change it before it starts. Good luck when you play this promo!

Let me know when and where. If this promo stands it is definitely worth the drive for me if the EV is 44.50 per hand!
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#12
shadroch said:
Ken,I believe you are mistaken here.
A dealer doesn't have to qualify to beat you on your first bet.
Say you have 9-7-5,and dealer has 10-7-5,he doesn't qualify,but you lose your first bet,lose your pair plus and push the second bet.If he had a Q-7-5,you'd lose all three if you stay in,2 if you had folded.
I've seen dealers that misunderstand this rule as well.
If the dealer does not qualify, you win the ante bet and the play bet is returned to you. Your cards do not matter. Of this, I'm quite certain.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#13
Learn something new,everyday.

KenSmith said:
I've seen dealers that misunderstand this rule as well.
If the dealer does not qualify, you win the ante bet and the play bet is returned to you. Your cards do not matter. Of this, I'm quite certain.
This is quite strange. I've played uncounted hours of 3 card poker and would have sworn you were mistaken.I asked several guys who have played even more than me,and they also were unaware of the dealer needing a queen to qualify,or you win.All of us thought the dealer qualifying was only for your second bet.
I can't imagine in the course of a normal game,staying on bad hands,the rule of thumb being Q-6-4 as a minimum hand to keep,but you were correct on your idea of staying in a game that pays 2-1.
I don't ever recall anyone staying and winning on a bad hand,with a regular payout it makes no sense.
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#14
Too good to be true.

You know what they say,"if it sounds too good to be true it probably is." The double payouts go into a pooled account which is paid back to the players in the form of a drawing. And i had my retirement all planned out :rolleyes:
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#15
Cass said:
You know what they say,"if it sounds too good to be true it probably is." The double payouts go into a pooled account which is paid back to the players in the form of a drawing. And i had my retirement all planned out :rolleyes:
Do they pay ALL of the money back to the players? How does this drawing work exactly?
 

Cass

Well-Known Member
#16
ScottH said:
Do they pay ALL of the money back to the players? How does this drawing work exactly?
Yes i think they pay all of it back to club members. The average amount of money wagered through these games is probably $100/hr. I dont think there promotion will spark much business. Last night No one played the three card poker game. They had the decks still in there packaging at 2am when i left. There drawings usually work that they just randomly pick people like once a hour for x amount. Then you go receive your prize. I'm sure it isnt worth it anyway.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#17
Cass said:
Yes i think they pay all of it back to club members. The average amount of money wagered through these games is probably $100/hr. I dont think there promotion will spark much business. Last night No one played the three card poker game. They had the decks still in there packaging at 2am when i left. There drawings usually work that they just randomly pick people like once a hour for x amount. Then you go receive your prize. I'm sure it isnt worth it anyway.
You might want to check out the details a little more.It just might be that the drawing is onbly for 3 card poker players,and you'll be the only one playing.Exploiting promotions and comps has an added value that far exceeds the edge the best counters have.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#18
It's officially over.

Me and supercoolmancool were planning on going to play the promotion in it's last weekend. We called to make sure it was still going and they said it is over. Now I am really glad I went a week early. In about 20 hours of play I made 2750 dollars. Just in time to pay off my tuition! :)

Cass, me, and supercoolmancool took almost half of the total money they had for the promo! Cass got most of it, but I'm glad we all got to take a good chunk of the money.

Thanks again Cass for mentioning the promo!
 
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