Progression Betting

I am new to posting on this site so be gentle with me. :whip:

I have played BJ for many years flat betting and winning some and losing more. I finially came up with a system that seems to work for me. I tried the KO system but as I don't get to play that often so decided not to count. I live in North Georgia which is a Casino wasteland. Nearest casino is Harrah's Cherokee in North Carolina.

Anyway here is my system. As a BS player I can expect to win almost half of my bets. I play a few hands to see how hot the dealer is, and if the dealer is not hot will use this system. Bet 1 win, bet 1 win, bet 1 lose, bet 2 lose, back to bet 1. If the dealer is not hot I will win the hands that I double my bets and drop back to unit bet after winning. I've tried this system for a couple of years and it works. You need to pay attention to how the cards are falling and leave the table when the cards turn against you. Best of all your spread is only 1-2 so no heat from the PB.

OK guys and gals punch holes in it but it works if you pay attention to the cards.

how do you determine when a dealer is hot?
by the way there is no advantage to the bet sequence posted above.

best regards,
mr fr0g

Hot Dealer

When I'm at the table and the dealer is winning 75% of the hands its doesn't take a genius to know its time to find a new table. When I'm cold I limit amount I will wager, usually 20 units. When I'm hot I can win 40-50 units in a couple of hours. Pay attention to the cards, when you get more DD hands and don't bust when hitting, push your bets.

so thats your cut off point dealer wins 75% and your history? lemme think about this out loud for a moment. dealer just won 75% of the rounds or hands if it's been one on one let us say. well the dealer normally wins most when the players are at a disadvantage. the players being at a disadvantage for 75% of the rounds or hands could mean that the dealer has burnt up a high percentage of the cards that are favorable for her and unfavorable for you. this could mean that the rest of the pack has a larger than normal proportion of player favorable cards left to be dealt. but if you just left the table your missing out on recieving the benefit of being dealt those cards. but really if your not counting cards you have no way of really knowing if the situation is favorable for the dealer or favorable for the players.
how do you quantify the degree to which you are 'cold' and how do you ramp those twenty units that you wager. how do you quantify the degree to which you are 'hot' ? it sounds as if you are sort of playing by the seat of your pants with out a more precise method of playing i don't see how you can expect to succeed with out a great deal of luck.
earlier you refered to the need to really watch how the cards are falling. what do you mean by that? are you refering to some method of counting?
i think you should return to using the KO system to help insure your continued success you've been having as doubtless the good results your reporting are most likely the result of a lot of good luck.

best regards,
mr fr0g

i can commiserate with you if Harrah's NC is your only option. those electronic tables are something aren't they. the thing i don't like about them is i've never seen any table with less than a $15 minimun. you need a substantial bankroll to even consider playing them. when i'm there i usually drop a few bills in some of the blackjack slot machines they have. some of those they have there are fairly decent. if i remmember correctly they let you double on 9, 10 & 11. they allow spitting but no RSA and blackjack i believe payed 3:2.
not great but kind of fun and not to expensive.
best regards,
mr fr0g

sagefr0g: thanks for your input. I agree that playing at hARRAH'S NC is not very good. They do have 1 or 2 $10 tables when they open the no smoking section about 10am. Have not tried the BJ slot machines yet. I'll try them next time I go up there. Counting is a waste of time there with the 50%(estimate) penetration and the difficulty watching all the hands with the flat video screens.

thank you for the info about the rare $10 tables. are you sure about that 50% estimate for penetration? when i was observing them it seemed there were a sufficient number of rounds dealt before the shuffle that one could employ counting. i never did figure out how to interpret what their graphic representation of the discard tray was or if that was supposed to be a graphic representation of a shoe with cards being diminished.
also i'd have to take exception to your statement that it would be so difficult watching all the hands with the flat videor screens. i observed how that works and you would only have to watch your video screen not the video screens of the other players. your video screen flashs the other players cards when they are being dealt to. so you could count their cards. the cards are flashed a bit quickly but it seemed to me that counting in that manner would be achievable.
also i want to make sure i don't lead you astray with regards to those blackjack slot machines. i have no idea if they can be consistantly beaten. i pretty much just played them for entertainment value. i've made about three visits to that casino and each time i was able to drag about thirty or fifty bucks out of those slots. probably just luck though.
best regards,
mr fr0g

The dealer being "hot" has nothing to do with your chances of winning your next hand. They deal 8 hours a day. If you flip coins 8 hours a day, you will go on "winning streaks".

Only the makeup of the rest of the cards, and order of the rest of the cards matters. And you can know them (relatively) through counting and tracking.

No matter what progression you play, the results will always be the same. You will win 43, lose 48 and push 9 hands for every 100 in the long run. PERIOD.

But do what works for you because its not my money, its yours.

Its's rather simple



Obviously,the key is to have larger bets out on the 52 hands that you'll win or push,and smaller bets on the 48 losers.

exactly, which can only be determined by counting or tracking.