Why doesn't this strategy work?

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mattmd

New Member
#1
#1
Hi,

A friend told me about this strategy that looks like it works, but I am not a math guy and I have read before that betting strategies don't work, so I would like someone to explain to me why this won't work because I can't figure it out :)

If you play basic strategy, the house advantage is less than 1%, so you win almost half of the hands that you play. If you start with a $5 bet and add $5 to it every time you lose a hand and take $5 away every time you win a hand, you should win around $5 for every 2 hands that you play (slightly less because of the house's tiny advantage).

So how does it not work?

Thanks, Matt
 
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LeonShuffle

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
How did you come up with a $5 win for every two hands? A half percent house advantage is a half percent house advantage no matter how much you bet.
 
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mattmd

New Member
#3
#3
If we start with $100 total and play 10 hands, and the betting goes like this:

bet $5 - lose - total = $95
bet $10 - lose - total = $85
bet $15 - lose - total = $70
bet $20 - lose - toal = $50
bet $25 - lose - total = $25
bet $30 - win - total = $55
bet $25 - win - total = $80
bet $20 - win - total = $100
bet $15 - win - total = $115
bet $10 - win - total = $125

we're up $25 and we've won the same # of hands as the house. That's $5 profit for every 2 hands we played. Put the wins / losses in any order and we still win $5 for every 2 hands. It just occured to me that I may be misunderstanding what is meant by a half percent house advantage. I thought it meant that if we play 200 hands, the house would win 101 of them and we'd win 99. Is that incorrect?
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Someone with much better math skills can fill in the details, but the house wins more than .5% more than the player.

The player recoups some of that by winning on splits and double-downs.

So, insert an extra couple of losses into your pattern, and you can see how, long-term, it's the same as if you were just betting big in general.
 
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LeonShuffle

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
The half percent advantage is in terms of money, not hands. The actual win/loss/push percentage is approximately 42%W, 51%L, 7%P. If you play perfect BS, over the long run you'll lose about 50 cents for every $100 wagered no much how much is bet or in what order the bet is increased or decreased. Of course the long run is a very long time and the more that's wagered, the higher the flux will be.
 
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davidmcclung

New Member
#6
#6
Up one unit on loss down one unit on win

That system would work much better in craps betting the pass line where you are very near 50% wins and 50% losses, in fact I may give it a try when I start losing at blackjack which I normally do lately. It does seem like it is getting harder to win at blackjack lately, may have something to do with the shuffle, but very few winners seen lately.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
davidmcclung said:
It does seem like it is getting harder to win at blackjack lately, may have something to do with the shuffle, but very few winners seen lately.
Click to expand...
I think it has something to do with the not counting!
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
mattmd said:
So if I did the math correctly, the strategy in my first post should be a break even one.
Click to expand...
I'm afraid not. The house edge does not change. The system you mentioned, just like all progression systems, will still lose. In fact, it may even lose more money because you are making bigger bets when you still have a disadvantage. Since your average bet is higher you should expect to lose more money overall.

Read some of the pther posts in this forum to get more details about the dangers of pregression systems.

-Sonny-
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
mattmd said:
So 42%W, 51%L, 7%P is incorrect?
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It is a fairly accurate estimation. The actual numbers may change slightly based on the game and strategy, but those numbers are reliable.

-Sonny-
 
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XxGuardiaNxX

New Member
#13
#13
Nobody has really answered the question straight up.

Here it is:

Almost all casino's have a betting maximum, usually $2-500. Therefore you can't really lose anymore than 10 times in a row you'll go broke. Ten may seem like it wont happen, but trust me. After playing maybe 200 hands, it will.

If you do this and things work out, quit while you're ahead.
 
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ortango

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
mattmd said:
If we start with $100 total and play 10 hands, and the betting goes like this:

bet $5 - lose - total = $95
bet $10 - lose - total = $85
bet $15 - lose - total = $70
bet $20 - lose - toal = $50
bet $25 - lose - total = $25
bet $30 - win - total = $55
bet $25 - win - total = $80
bet $20 - win - total = $100
bet $15 - win - total = $115
bet $10 - win - total = $125

we're up $25 and we've won the same # of hands as the house. That's $5 profit for every 2 hands we played. Put the wins / losses in any order and we still win $5 for every 2 hands. It just occured to me that I may be misunderstanding what is meant by a half percent house advantage. I thought it meant that if we play 200 hands, the house would win 101 of them and we'd win 99. Is that incorrect?
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Let me translate what ZG meant by BOLLOCKS: it means "I have seen this post too many times to type more than 8 letters about it."

Matt,

Losing more than 6 hands is easy. Likewise, don't count on winning 6 hands straight. With any betting strategy with a house edge, YOU WILL RUN OUT OF MONEY AND THE HOUSE WILL NOT.

Only having a better chance of winning will make you a winner. Let me revise your chart to what it should say:

bet $5 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $10 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $15 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $20 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $25 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $30 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $25 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $20 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $15 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $10 - 49.5% chance of winning

That is if you play perfect Basic Strategy

Cheers :cow:
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
ortango said:
Let me translate what ZG meant by BOLLOCKS: it means "I have seen this post too many times to type more than 8 letters about it."

Matt,

Losing more than 6 hands is easy. Likewise, don't count on winning 6 hands straight. With any betting strategy with a house edge, YOU WILL RUN OUT OF MONEY AND THE HOUSE WILL NOT.

Only having a better chance of winning will make you a winner. Let me revise your chart to what it should say:

bet $5 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $10 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $15 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $20 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $25 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $30 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $25 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $20 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $15 - 49.5% chance of winning
bet $10 - 49.5% chance of winning

That is if you play perfect Basic Strategy

Cheers :cow:
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The actually win % is more like 43%. You expect to get about 99.5% of the money you bet back each hand, which doesn't sound like a great deal to me.
 
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ortango

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
ScottH said:
The actually win % is more like 43%. You expect to get about 99.5% of the money you bet back each hand, which doesn't sound like a great deal to me.
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Heh, Scott I beat you to it. You know what I meant. :p

Of course I didn't win anything. Internet forums are like the Special Olympics. Even if you win, you are still retarded.
 
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