Advice for a Sydney boy.

[matteotm]

Hi All,

just a kind of a BR question really. (which i know has been "done to death") i generally use a BR of only 10 units.
I started off with 10 units of $10.......then i went up to 10 units of $25

then i would buy in for 10 units @ $50..

and now ive been buying in for 10 units @ $100.

I play only BS in Sydney with CSM.. and i have definately had my fair share of awful sessions (including some times i dipped into the wallet for more than 10 units)

however on one of my usual nights with a buy in of $500 for $50 units.....the table was red hot..and i soon noticed every1 around me was betting $100 chips.. so i decided to up the stakes as i could see i was missing out.. that night i won about $2k.

and thats when i started... doing 10 units @ $100.

since that day i have had 6 sessions where the worst result i have had is double to 20 units......and some sessions ive come out at 25 or 30...

the problem is now i know im "due for a loss" or at least something in my mind is screaming out to me.......which i think is going to affect my confidence. I have been hesitent to go back.

any1s thoughts?

[EasyRhino]

Well, if you're due for a loss, it's easy, just switch to $5 or $10 units.

I guess, especially if you're not doing advantage play, it's a matter of how long you want to play, and how much you're willing to lose.

If the potential for playing a shortish time (possibly under an hour) then 10 units is fine. If you want to be able to play for a longer stretch, I'd lean towards 20 units. Even 20 units leaves you a chance of ruin before you get bored, but it's fairly small.

I'm not sure if you could do some kind of fancy Kelly betting (each bet a % of your BR) as that's usually reserved for games with a positive EV.

But hey, congratulations on the luck!

[ortango]

I'm sure others here could tell you in more detail, but I will summarize what 9 out of 10 folks would probably tell you:

Your trip bankroll is too small, even for a flat bettor. With 10 bets you will not last long ... you will be giving up advantageous situations, because you will be constantly be on the verge of losing all your money and can't split or double correctly.

Obviously you are not counting cards, as you are playing CSMs. If you are willing to give up money in the long run for entertainment, that is your call. Advantage play takes research, practice and patience. If you dont' find it worthwhile to learn advantage play, and would rather pay for the entertainment, then that is your money and I will not tell you how to spend it. You have been lucky so far, which is great for you, but everything the you are doing is in the Casino's favor and you will always be welcome there.

I personally find it worth my time to learn how to play advantageously, because I have more fun when I win and I like taking the casino's money. You can be a longtime winner with a lot of luck, but I would rather roll a barrel down a hill than push it up one. I can tell you that I used to play as a non advantage player and I enjoy it now tremendously more.

Your past winning sessions will not affect your future performance. The law of averages does not apply in your situation. Only learning how to play better will affect your future performance positively. I know you don't want to hear most of this, but here is my advice.

- Learn advantage techniques.
- If you don't want to, play the minimum to cut your losses

[matteotm]

Hi Ortango,

you spoke about "learn advantage play". With the whole CSM thing. obviously as you know card counting is not an option, so im pretty much limited.. (main problem here is that in australia its only CSMS so i could learn advantage techniques all i wanted.. but i wouldnt be able to implement them, unless i went to LV or AC etc.

basically im making the best of bad situation.. one scenario that did happen to me on $100 was 4,4 vs 5

in which i spilt (according to BS)

i was then given a double opportunity on both 4's which i took .. (total of $400 on the table) dealing ended up busting.........

ive never yet had a situation where ive "not been able to split or double" because of being chip short" my sessions have always started by winning the first one or two hands and after that ive just been playing on profit... the worst i can remember getting down in a session is 4 units out of the 10. normally i only play for about 1 hour.. im estimating im probably up about $8k from these six sessions.. had i been going there with 40 units of $25 i dont think i could ever achive that. but obviously its a much higher ROR... could any1 give me some figures on ROR..

say on 40 units of 25

vs
10 units of 100.

[mickpk]

main problem here is that in australia its only CSMS

That's not true. I believe the VIP lounge in Star City (Sydney) deals from a shoe, but even then, Crown (Melbourne) has plenty of non-CSM tables. I've been told that even Canberra has non-CSM tables on Fri nts and weekends. But you'll need more than 10 units bankroll if you want to make a success of card counting.