oscar's grind- what are the odds?

HI,
i'm new to casinos and blackjack so any help will be appreciated.

i have a question regarding oscar's grind, it seems the system most adapted to my playing style (conservative) and bankroll (more like a crumb than a roll).

i've used it a bit with good results, it was certainly more effective than flat betting, more exciting and i meet the WR quicker.
on the other hand all betting systems are doomed to fail sometimes and it gets a bit scary sometimes (double down on 22$ is my record)

my question is: how can i calculate the odds of busting out using oscar while starting with 1$ as betting unit in blackjack classic or surrender or switch when my bankroll is
100$
200$
300$
400$
500$

all suggestions and remarks are welcome.

yours
zoidberg

Since you are playing at a disadvantage, you have a 100% chance of going broke using Oscar's Grind. That is, if you play long enough you will eventually lose all of your money. It doesn't matter how big your bankroll is, you will eventually lose it all. In fact, you will lose it faster using Oscar's Grind because your average bet is higher than a flat-betting player. The more you bet, the faster you lose.

-Sonny-

Hi Sonny,

Thanks for the answer, i know that along an infinite time scale i will lose all the money but still if i play using this sytem and bust on 2 casinos while making a nice profit on 8 others it might be worth it.

also anyone has a recommendation for a loss stop: should i stop when i lost so many units or my bets have reached too high a risk?

yours
zoidberg

Trust me, it won't. You may have several small wins at several casinos but the few losses will be so big that they wipe out all of your profit as well as your bankroll. Using a progression system may be fun and it might take care of your WR faster, but it is not a winning system. You will still lose money overall.

You can read through almost any other post on this forum to get more information on why progression systems don't work.

-Sonny-

Loss Stop - now. Start counting. Even Ace-5 tracking would be better than grinding Oscar.

If you insist on it, stop when you've doubled or halved your BR. $100br = $200 or $50.

Hang on, zoidberg's post is evidently with regards to online casino bonus-hustling, and he's just trying to clear wagering requirements.

So the question really is, what would the impact of oscar's grind be with the same average bet of flat-betting?

I don't know enough about oscar's grind to judge it. However, it would take longer to change your bets, which would substantially change the speed at which you can power through the wagering requirements. For that reason I would think it would be a loser.

If you flat-bet the average bet of your oscar's grind system, then the -EV would be identicle. There would be no difference between the games except that flat-betting would be easier.

Oh sure, I was just wondering about win/loss distrubution (I know nothing) about Oscar's grind. But for instance, would it tend to display martingale-like tendencies, with a larger number of modestwinning sessions countered by fewer, must larger, losing sessions?

Yes, you would win more often than flat-betting, but eventually you will have a big losing session that takes away those wins and will put you right where you would be at flat-betting.

Hi

Thanks for all the feedback.

as Easyrhino correctly assumed i am trying to get through WR's quickly.

yesterday i went to cherry casino and oscar nearly brought me down, i wouldn't recommend cherry anyway because of the sloooow java game and it was pretty obvious that it was not about random number generating.
managed to break even in the end though.

thinking i'm gonna try a different approach next time.

all the best
zoidberg.

Depends. If these are sticky bonuses (as most are) your net EV increases with bet size. There are several types of sticky bonuses out there where a progression would be a useful way to exploit them but this is a complicated subject and some of the art is probably best not discussed in public. A progression also produces a betting pattern associated with a gambler and not an advantage player.

If you're playing online bonuses the solution to your problem is just to flat-bet. Flat-betting the minimum will give you your best chance of walking away with your EV. You'll still have the same EV if you increase your bet, but your variance will also increase. But flat-betting the minimum, or another small amount will almost guarantee you a profit.

There are a ton of great bonuses that are not sticky. In fact, when I played for online bonuses I played at probably somewhere between 10-20 casinos and I never played a sticky bonus.

Oh then you should try all the good stickies now. Some of the new ones are quite groovy. For BJ I calculated a bet of 20% your initial account value for the best results, and when you have hit your target and begun your grind-down, that's a good time to start playing around with progressions if one is so inclined.

Do you have a list of good ones handy?

Sure, right here.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/BestInternetCasinos.htm

And I suggest reading Arnold's articles on online play thoroughly before playing stickies. Some of the techniques are not discussed openly so you have to read between the lines. The online stores still have no clue that we can beat them in these ways, and the longer it remains that way the better.

Can you give me a short list of your favorite casinos with sticky bonuses?