Positive Progression - Count Modified

I played with a positive progression system for a while and it seemed to produce decent results, though I did not record it acurately enough to say whether or not it produced an overall win. Note - I do not use this in my current play, I'm just curious if anyone else does.

Here's the mehtod I used:

1) I started with a $10 bet - two red chips

2) If the hand won, and the TOTAL card count was positive I would increase my bet to $15 - three red chips

3) If that hand won, and the card count FOR THE HAND was netural to positive I would increase my bet to $20 - four red chips.

4) I would continue with this until I lost a hand or encountered a negative count for the hand.

This system seldom produced bets over $40.00, results would appear as follows:

1) Bet $10, Win result: $10.00, Loss of hand result: $-10.00

2) Bet $15, Win result: $25.00, Loss of hand result: $-5.00 - end progression

3) Bet $20, Win result: $45.00, Loss of hand result: $5.00 - end progression

3) Bet $25, Win result: $70.00, Loss of hand result: $20.00 - end progression

4) Bet $30, Win result: $100.00, Loss of hand result: $40.00 - end progression

5) Bet $35, Win result: $135.00, Loss of hand result: $65.00 - end progression

6) Bet $40, Win result: $175.00, Loss of hand result: $90.00 - end progression

7) Bet $45, Win result: $220.00, Loss of hand result: $130.00 - end progression

THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THIS IS TO STOP THE PROGESSION AT ANY NEGATIVE TURN OF THE CARDS. I've witnessed may progressive players continue the progession into very negative conditions. I've felt like yelling over to them "Stop now!".

I read somewhere that every two hours you can expect a win or loss streak of seven hands. In this system you would rarely get to seven straight without the cards turning negative. I did reach the seventh straight hand on a couple of occasions.

What I liked about this system is that the risk of loss was minimal, after three straight wins you were guaranteed a positive result.

I mostly played this when the cards seemed to be running in streaks. Also, it's easier to start the progressions when you're ahead. In a back and forth game it is a losing proposition.

Anyone else tried a similar system where the card count was used to continue or cancel the progression?

I did heaps of sims and math on this.

I thought 'what if i use martingale only when count is positive'

The result is a system that works. But you can prove that the risk of ruin is greater than just betting to the kelly criterion.

Stopping the progression when negeative count just pulls it more to match the kelly criterion. In the end if you bet to exact kelly criterion it is the best way. Most people do 1/4 or 1/2 kelly etc. They are idiots. Once you are slightly ahead bet full kelly. no progression is better.

Of course the system works. It doesn't matter how much you bet, as long as you're only betting in positive counts you will make money.

It's the opposite of the BS martingale player. No matter how they bet they lose because they are playing at a disadvantage. But in positive counts, you can bet however you want and you will make money in the long run.

As long as you don't go broke first!

You're right, of course, but I never pass up a chance to mention the fact that overbetting, even with an advantage, can still bankrupt a player.

-Sonny-

Simple progression schedule vs Kelly


I'm not familiar with Kelly (probably should be!). Is it easy to use?

I generally used the progrression I mentioned when I was ahead and wanted to take a shot at pushing it up. I never used it when I was down as a way to overcome my losses. Basically, as you stated, the risk of ruin is higher so adding to your risk when your risk is already higher (higher risk because your bankroll is lower than it was at the start), sounds like a formula for disaster!

I used it after reducing my risk of ruin. My bankroll was up, so I was willing to accept some additional risk.

Appreciate the feedback.

-Buzzer

Kelly criterion is just says how much to bet based on your edge.

If your edge is 1% you should not be betting more than 1% of your bankroll, infact the optimum bet is 1%.