Quote:
Originally Posted by AussieBlackjack
Thanks for that Mr Frog but that now brings me to my second question and thats is how do you figure out the true count? I mean i know it depends on how many decks are left in the shoe but how can you really be sure how many decks are left so is is just a rough guess rounded up or down or is there a way to figure out exactly.So if you have a running count of +8 and there are 6 decks remaining does that mean the true count is 1 (rounded down)?? 
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opps i overlooked the part of your question about rounding down.
actually no i don't believe you are in a mathematically classical sense rounding down your true count when you employ deck estimation according to the scenerio described above.
what you are doing is flooring your deck estimation to a full deck. so for example if we are playing a six deck game and we see from zero to fifty one cards in the discard tray we floor the number of decks considered to be in the discard tray to be zero decks hence our divisor for deteriminig the true count is 6. now if we observe from fifty two to one hundred and three cards in the discard tray we floor the number of decks considered to be in the discard tray to be one deck. so now our divisor for determining the true count is 5 . ect. ect. ( i'm being a bit radical here to make the point in reality if i observed 51 cards in the discard tray i would probably divide by 5 to get my true count instead of 6. but then that would not technically be full deck estimation with flooring.)
at any rate you can see that there is indeed a great deal of approximations going on here. additionally if you are going to use this method in the casino and you are correlating your optimal bets to a simulation then you should have your simulator set up to perform full deck estimation and the resulting true counts that your simulation yields will find the advantage for a range of TC's. ie. TC<=0 but TC>-1 the advantage may be X%, TC<= 1 but TC>0 the advantage may be Y%, ect. ect.
so that what you have here is a given advantage X% for a true count that ranges from zero to just greater than minus one. in the casino i would call that a true count of zero. and a given advantage Y% for a true count that ranges from just greater than zero to one. in the casino i would call this a true count of one. ect. ect.
so this procedure isn't the same thing as rounding that is classicaly perfomed in mathematics (ie. rounding up or rounding down) .
best regards,
mr fr0g :D