My first time counting at the casino

[21forme]

I started learning to count a few months ago. I've been practicing online mostly at this site and praciticing basic strategy at http://www.blackjack-bst.com/ . My wife had plans with the kids today, so I took the opportunity to play with counting for the first time.

I went to the Borgata in AC, about a 90 minute drive. It's a nice place. They are reputed to always have some $10 tables, but I could only find two, and they were full. It was a weekend, after all. There were lots of $25 tables. All were 6 decks, S17, DAS, NS. Interestingly, about half of them had dealer shuffle (with no mid-shoe entry) and the other half had a shuffle machine (with mid-shoe entry.) I was baffled why the difference, until I noticed the penetration was significantly better at the dealer shuffle tables.

At first, I tried some back counting, but after counting 2 complete shoes at different tables, the count was never positive. It was also starting to get crowded (I got there about 9:30 AM) so, I decided it was time to sit. I went to a dealer shuffle table.

It was definitely tougher counting for real than in front of the computer. I played about 12 shoes and lost count part way through 2 of them. One time, it just got too fast with a lot of cards being drawn. The other time, I simply forgot the count. Duh! Another time, as I was busy counting, I had a 12 and the dealer had a 6 showing. Initially, I indicated I wanted a card and the dealer paused for a few seconds. I quickly said "oops, I don't want a card," then thanked her for the extra pause, saving the hand for me.

Of the shoes I did count, only 2 went positive. Statistically, what percentage of 6 deck shoes should go positive? Those worked out very well for me, with only one bet lost on a positive count/10 unit bet. I decided to quit when they raised the minimum from $25 to $50. At that point I was up close to $1K.

I'll probably go back next weekend, taking the family and dropping them off at the outlet mall while I'm playing.

It's been a fun learning experience, and thanks to all here for all the interesting reading.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by 21forme

Statistically, what percentage of 6 deck shoes should go positive?

kewl story. pretty gutsy playing quarter tables your first time counting in a casino. it would be safer for you to play lower limit tables at first especially if your going to sit rather than wong in.

about one out of five shoes will present positive counts worth betting up into for a six deck game.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

kewl story. pretty gutsy playing quarter tables your first time counting in a casino. it would be safer for you to play lower limit tables at first especially if your going to sit rather than wong in.

about one out of five shoes will present positive counts worth betting up into for a six deck game.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D

Only 1 in 5? I'd venture to guess that is is more than that. Don't hold me to it, but I really think it should be more than that.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Only 1 in 5? I'd venture to guess that is is more than that. Don't hold me to it, but I really think it should be more than that.

I agree, I'd say at least half will get up to the point where you can put out two units.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Only 1 in 5? I'd venture to guess that is is more than that. Don't hold me to it, but I really think it should be more than that.

i should have qualified that statement to read only about one in five shoes for a six deck game shall present a true count worthy of betting up on if you are wonging out at or around two decks dealt.
this info is from Renzey's Bluebook II the section on the ace/ten front count. i correlated the stats to the hi/lo count.
if you are wonging in (wonging the full shoe) or playing all i don't know the statistic.
good catch guys.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D

[EasyRhino]

Wow, a $25-$250 spread on your first counting trip? Ballsy.

Course, if you were backcounting, and noticed the counts weren't really going positive, then that would normally imply that you should keep backcounting, because otherwise you're playing at a disadvantage for long stretches. If you were at those dealer-shuffled tables, that would eliminate wonging in, but you could still wong out.

[21forme]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

Wow, a $25-$250 spread on your first counting trip? Ballsy.

I didn't think so. I only did it when the count was positive (and I ramped up to the 10 unit bets) and I was sure I was counting correctly. The numbers don't lie, right?

Next weekend, I'll try back counting a few tables again and hopefully I'll be able to wong in before just sitting down somewhere.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

i should have qualified that statement to read only about one in five shoes for a six deck game shall present a true count worthy of betting up on if you are wonging out at or around two decks dealt.
this info is from Renzey's Bluebook II the section on the ace/ten front count. i correlated the stats to the hi/lo count.
if you are wonging in (wonging the full shoe) or playing all i don't know the statistic.
good catch guys.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D

Why would you always be wonging out at 2 decks dealt out of 6? Normally the good counts come in towards end of the shoe...

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Why would you always be wonging out at 2 decks dealt out of 6? Normally the good counts come in towards end of the shoe...

there are two sources in the literature that i got that tactic from.
the aforementioned section on the ace/ten front count by Renzey in Blackjack Bluebook II and from chapter 13 in Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack. in chapter 13 Schlesinger address's the question with regard to wonging in of as he put it " the age old question of When do i leave." it's about a 25 page article complete with loads of tables and graphs. the article does not only address wonging in and when to give up on counting down a shoe but also play all and wong out plays and the question of when to bail out. i won't even attempt to paraphrase this incredibly complex article. i'll just try and give the understanding of what i gleaned from it. (hopefully i'm in the right ballpark)...
so here is how i understand approaching a shoe from the perspective of a player planning to wong out of the shoe at the most opportune time. (note: this is assuming there are good reasons for not wonging in such as heat)
so you sit at a freshly shuffled shoe. if possible don't play the first few hands or so but be counting since your at a disadvantage on the first few hands this is a known fact. but in practice i normally am playing from the get go. but anyway your counting as the pack is being dealt. if at two decks dealt the true count is minus one or zero (and actually plus one believe it or not) then it is probably a good idea to wong out (either take a potty break till the next shoe, get up and make a cell call, or just wave your betting circle off and sit there, ect. ect.). why so? if the true count hasn't gotten positive by two decks dealt it is likely not to achieve a worthwhile positive count before the cut card is reached. the true count will just meander up and down either negative something or zero and possibly a miserly TC=+1 but rarely will it reach above TC=+1. so what you really have if you stay in is the dealer having the advantage the greatest percent of the time and if you do get some advantage it's just some really low degree of advantage such as TC=+1. now what the above mentioned article (and Renzey's piece) pointed out is that if the true count has reached plus one and hopefully above plus one by two decks dealt then it is more likely that a significantly advantageous true count shall present as the shoe progress's. if the true count reachs sllightly above TC=+1 by two decks dealt then the true count has gotten over the hump (if you will) and has a good chance of reaching the really juicy counts further into the shoe as you alluded to. well i haven't really explained this well. the thing to do would be to read the articles. oh yea in the article it explained how one might even wong out at only one deck dealt out. i usually do that if say the true count reachs near minus two.
thats my take on the issue. your mileage may vary. i'm open to comments and counter arguements.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D

[ReidDeCardes]

I was at The Borgata 2 weeks ago on a Saturday and scouted tables at 5 PM or so. There are 2 areas that have Blackjack. The area in the center of the casiono was mostly $25 and up, but I also saw a $15 table or 2. The other area is closer to the Poker area. I played $10 there and there was at least 2 tables. Supposedly there is a $5 table but I'm sure that is beyond packed. This was on Halloween weekend.