A Word of Warning!

I have posted on this board and others here on this forum about my playing style in the past. In those points, while telling things accurately, I have probably painted a brighter picture of playing progressions (sepecially negative progressions) than what is probably true. I have had very good success at the tables with my progression system lately; but yesterday I ran into a buzz saw in Atlantic City; and I feel it is my duty to post the other side of the coin too, lest anyone think from my postings that it is all peaches and cream in progression land.

The short version is that I lost around $500 on the day, which was about half of the money I took with me on the trip. Most of this money was lost in one ten-minute streak that I should have bailed on. Be warned: there is a down side to playing negative progressions.

I have done well with my system; and I am still up siginificantly overall, and by any definition of "recently". But I wanted to be sure that I am painting an accurate picture for everyone. I don't want t anyones decision to play progressions influenced even a little bit by my posts here unless they know that days like yesterday do happen to me; and that they are not very pleasent experiences.

There were several things that I did wrong yesterday that, had they been done right, I would have either came out slightly ahead on the day, or at least not that far behind. The biggest one is disciploine, which I have mentioned before is a major problem for me sometimes. There were a couple of key points where I should not have chased as far as I did.

Beyond my own discipline issues, it is worth noting to anyone playing a negative progression that the eight-deck shoes in Atlantic City can be disaster waiting to happen. Also, starting at a higher minimum bet gets your progression in trouble territory much faster. And playing without surrender is not a wise move, especially in conjunction with the first two points.

On the day, I was ahead on the non-standard games like Double Attack Blackjack and Spanish 21. But I lost fast and furious on both my sessions of regular blackjack. I dropped $250 in the first fifteen minutes while winning one of my first eight hands. Then, after winning that back, plus a profit, in Double Attack, I dropped $600 on a bad stretch at another regular table. Both of the losing efforts really boiled down to situations where less chasing would have possibly turned the game around for me, or at least not have been so catostrophic.

At the end of the day, thirty minutes before I had to get on the bus home, my wife gave me $70 to play for her. I did that at Spanish 21, winning up to $200, before giving $50 back and quitting like a good money manager, with an $80 profit. Although she gave me the whole $150 to offset my bankroll losses a little, I'm not counting that in my record of the day's play.

I lost $500 of my precious bankroll, most of which was lost because of undisciplined play.

Just be careful if you're playing negative progressions, where you increase your bets as you lose. Only play the rules you know you can do well with. Only play the minimums you are comfortable with. Maintain your discipline. Put a strict cap on your losses. And please realize that sometimes you'll lose.

Bama...sorry to hear about your loss. Been there and done that. Negatives can work for you to the point that you think that they are almost a sure thing. Then "it" hits the fan and a couple of bad runs clean you out. I'm glad that you are so philosophic about it <smile>.

I'll add my 2-cents during the remainder of the week. I'm heading to Vegas tomrrow and will start the 6-day marathon. I'll try to get back up in the room long enough to post what I hope are "progress" reports. I'll mostly be playing the double-deck game at Plaza (65% pen, s-17, DOA, RSA, 3:2). All in all, about a .19% negative expectation game. Hard to find better anywhere in Vegas or anywhere else, but even with those expectations, there are a lot of swings to it.

I'll be changing my luck every once in a while by playing at 4-Queens at their Single Deck table.

Best of luck to you, Mike. I'm going to hit Mohegan Sun this weekend, I think, to try to get back on a positive note before heading to Vegas at the end of the month. I'll definitely be checking out your game at the Plaza then.

I can be philosophical about the loss yesterday because, while I did go on "tilt" for a little while, I didn't lose such a chunk of my bankroll that I'm down and out. I'm just hopiong that anyone who has let my previous posts on the success I've had with negative progressions will realize that there are two sides to the coin. I still believe it is possible to win on the whole, even with losing days. It just requires more discipline than I showed yesterday.

I'm still way up over the last year, so I really can't complain about yesterday. I just wanted to be sure that I am giving an honest representation of the facts here.

Negative Progression

What is your progression if you don't mind me asking?

Bama.......I think everyone knows that you are playing the progression with your eyes open. If nothing else, it certainly adds some pizazzzzz to the sessions <smile>.

The absolute worst beat I've had came after playing for 5 straight days, probably 12 hours a day. The first two days, I was up $500 (give or take a few tokes). I was playing a conservative $5 and $10 flat bet most of the time and just depending on positive variance and the payoffs on won doubles and splits and blackjacks to increase my stack.

Then those final three days hit me. I didn't seem as though I could buy a hand! I lost all I'd won, then lost another $500. The last $300 came on the final hand. I broke every rule I'd set for myself. I had $200 left in chips and $100 in my pocket. I put $100 chips on two spots. First spot, I got a 9/2. Second spot, I drew a 14. Dealer showed a 4. I doubled the 9/2 using the $100 in my pocket! I stood on the 14. The dealer hid my double-down card and then commenced to hit 7 cards to a total of 21. Busted me out!

My only defense is that I was exhausted after 5 days of 12-hours at the tables plus more than my share of drinks! I'm a lot more disciplined now <LOL>

It varies, based on the situation. If I am at a $5 table, what I'd normally like to do is bet $10, then drop it to $5 if I win and raise it to $20 if I lose. Then the positive progression for the win would be 5-7-10-15-20-25-30-and so-on until I lose. The negative progression would be 20-50-100-200-500. I have various other pieces that I factor in. For example, in some situations, I might count money lost in doubling or splitting, and factor that into sizing the next bet. In others, I'd just count doubling and splitting as a "side-bet" as far as sizing the next bet is concerned. If surrender is offered, I'll often just count the amount that was lost, not the amount that was wagered; but other times, I'll count the full amount of the wager in sizing the next bet. I also should play with a cap, which I wasn't observing very well yesterday, of three or four bets up the progression, before dropping back to table minimum and riding out a long losing streak.

Not used yesterday, but something I have been playing with in simulations is to bet the same level until I lose two bets in a row, then I triple the bet. If I win that, I go back to the first level. If I lose that, I re-bet it, and play until I either lose two in a row and move up again, or until I win two in a row and drop back to the bottom level.

I had my biggest win using a straight negative progression, with no caps and flat betting the win streaks at the bottom level. That progression was 5-10-25-50-100-200-500-1000. I bet the $1000 level three times that day, winning two of the three. I opted not to go any further the time I lost the $1000 bet, and just cycled back down and started over. That day, I won $4500 on a $300 buy-in.

Yesterday, what I had intended to do was to use the following schedule:

10-15-25 as a negative progression, going back to 10 if I lost the $25, and 10-10-15-20 and so-on as a positive progression when I won.

I just broke discipline and kept thinking the "one more round" mentality when I was losing; and of course, sometimes one more would bring me back; and that just made it easier to go another round off the farm next time. My trouble was caused by two series back to back where I lost bets all the way up to $200., which meant nearly $800 in losses total (offset by my other gains.)

this is my whole mentality...you're not going to win all the time so when you lose just shake it off

Well, I made another trip this weekend to try and redeem myself a little from the AC trip, and to try to build the bankroll a little for my upcoming Las Vegas trip. This time it was Mohegan Sun, site of a $1700 win about two months ago.

I got there with $10 tables, which were quickly raised to $15, and then to $25. However, Mohegan Sun grandfathers you in at whatever the table was when you started. So I played for about three hours on one table.

I played very conservatively. My series was $10, $15, $25, and back to $10 if I lost the $25. I later raised that to allow for a $50 and $100 wager, once I had won a little.

I was up about $600 at one point; and I had a losing streak right around the time I was going to need to go anyway to meet back up with my wife and in-laws. So I foolishly decided to take the series a step further, dropping a $200 bet, and going down about $400 on that series.

So sitting there up $200 for the day, I decided to push out a $400 bet, my last of the day, win, lose, or draw. That would leave me up $600 or down $200 (and my loose interpretation of the count was that there were a lot of tens left to come.) I got 9-2; and the dealer showed a 7. I reached into my pocket and pulled out four more Franklins and doubled down on my 11. The delaer gave me a six, which didn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies. But I still felt okay with his seven showing. I was pretty sure I'd at least push at 17. Then, the unthinkable happened. He flipped a three and pulled a nine, leaving me down $600 for the day.

I probably shouldn't have placed the original $400 bet; but I stand by the decision to double on that hand once it was on the table. Even with the loss, I felt better about my play for the day. I didn't really go on "tilt". The decisions at the end to take the bets on up were made knowing what the outcome could be. They were more or less decisions to take a shot at a nice gain for the day; and I got the opportunity I wanted. It just didn't work out that time.

The origin of this thread was me giving a word of warning to others playing progressions; and this just stresses that a bit more. Be careful and know what you're doing; and remember that there are days where you'll come home lighter in the pockets than when you left. I'm fortunate that I still have money to play in Vegas; but there were certainly times when an $1100 loss in one week would have completely devastated not only my gambling bankroll, but my whole financial situation.