Must resist taking the "smack the side player" bet...

Arg! The table I'm playing at has the lucky-7 side bet going. That is, for $1, if you're dealt a 7 for your first card, you get paid 3-to-1. It goes up from there, for two or three sevens of suits or not. The highest payout is 3 suited sevens = 5000-to-1.

But I'm sitting there thinking-- wait a minute. 3 to 1? But it's 13 to 1 to hit a seven. I'm not scientician or anything, but even I can figure that out. And with eight decks, even a rough figuration puts the 3 suited sevens at a huge number to one-- and they're only paying 5000-to-1?

Okay, whatever. Sidebets suck. But an aquantence of mine is playing them. Religiously. I point out the odds, and he says "Yeah, but I hit the 1000-to-1 once. It'd suck if the sevens came out and you weren't playing them".

I shrug, willing to leave well enough alone. I'm just not going to play them. But he KEEPS GOING ON! "I mean, if you're already paying $25 a hand, why not $26?". Must bite tongue to resist pointing out the stupidity of that. If I was paying $26 a hand-- I'd be getting back $26 when I win! I'm not paying $26. I'm paying $25, and there's a dead dollar on the table.

And worst of all-- absoloute worst of all-- the same guy then turns around and starts admonishing another player who has bought a lottery ticket because the ODDS ARE BAD! He even starts quoting them. "Isn't it, like, several million to one of actually getting the numbers? It's a stupid tax, I tell you.". Bad Odds preaching to Bad Odds. Sigh.

(Sidenote: Yes, lottery is-- but concidering the odds of winning the lottery are in the neighbourhood of 1 in 13 million-- and the odds of the suited 7 is 0.000016% (1 in ~60000). At least if Lottery guy hits, he'll be paid in the millions! Must better return on the $1.)

Le rant = over.

I tried to throw down some math on this, butcherered it, and realized the Wizard already had a page:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix8.html

... KO count reckons sevens, wonder if that would help on this side bet?

Here's a funny story about how Arnold Snyder was involved with this side bet:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/sevens.htm

-Sonny-

It's actually one of the better sidebets, very countable with a simple sidecount of 7's. It does have the problem of high variance and you aren't going to have +EV until you do hit the suited 7's, but "it's only a dollar" is a true statement and a green chip or higher player isn't going to go bankrupt playing it. If I were using High-Low or another count that doesn't recognize the 7's it might be worth it to sidecount the 7's and use the info for both bet adjustment and this sidebet.

It can also use as a cover, the casino will think you are a gambler since you bet on something with a huge house edge.

Countable,s ure--- but this was at a CSM table! =)

Must resist

I was at a table in Oklahoma practicing my counting when one of these side bet propositions came up to a player that was actually playing (I was just standing there practicing counting two tables and not playing).

He had the $0.50 side bet and one of the promotions is a suited 6-7-8 (any order) and you win a progressive jackpot, which at this time I think was around $2500. Well he had bet $10 and had the 6 and 7 of clubs with the dealer showing a four. It came his turn to play and he passed. I said "whoa!! aren't you going to hit? You gotta a chance at a jackpot?". He said no he might bust, then I asked if I could buy his hand. He said no and I upped my offer, $20-double his bet so it would be like he won. Still he wouldn't sell and I offered $30. Still a no from the player. Then the floorperson asked me if I would like to play (of course I didn't) and the turn went to the next player.

Well of course the 8 of clubs came up and everyone, EVERYONE at the table, dealer and pit personnel included, went "AAAAWWWWW!!!!!!". I think I actually felt my toes ball up into a fist, I'm not sure as I my eyes went cross-eyed, my stomach went into a knot and I got dizzy.

That's the second time somebody failed to hit with the 6-7-8 suited promotion and lost the jackpot while I was watching.

You have to remember that you are getting all the payouts on for one bet. So of course a single 7 is way worse than 13:1 and the big payout is way worse than the actual odds. Its only about 14% house edge apparently so its not much worse than most of the crap bets out there.