What are the odds

On Saturday I was at a local casino. I generally play at a $5-$195 table. They stay on S17, Split any 2 cards upto 3 hands except A. A can only split once, plus you only get 1 card on A. Double on any 2 cards.

First hand, I have a pair of 8's with $20 bet. Dealer has a 4 up. I split my 8's, get a A on the first 8 and stand. Then get a 2 on the second 8. Double and get a 10. So I have 19 and 20 with a dealer 4 showing, with $60 bet. Dealer turns over a 4, then draws 2, 2, 2, 2, 5 for a 7 card 21. Wiped out the table.

Later at a different table, different dealer, I get a pair of 7's with $15 bet. Dealer has a 5 up. I split my 7's, get a 3 on the first 7, so I double and get a 10. On the second 7, I get a 4, so I double again and get a 9. So I have 2 20's with a dealer 5 showing, with $60 bet again. Dealer turns over a 4, then draws a 3, A, A, 2, 5 for another 7 card 21. Wiped out the table.

What are the odds of a 7 card 21 for the dealer happening twice in a 3 hour span?

For you, I would say...about 100% !!!

Sorry, I could not resist...

:joker:

Wow, I'd say it was time to head home after that.

I left the table approximately 30 seconds after the 5 hit the table. I was on the road within 10 minutes.

Had you been counting, I'll bet you a dollar to a donut that the count was astronomically low. If that was the case, the "wonder" would be that you were extremely "lucky" to hit the high cards, not that the dealer hit so many low ones. It could have just been variance though that would be highly unlikely.

Either way, it was a pair of bad beats for you!

Don't remember the first one, but the second was the first deal out of the shoe.

The odds? I'm not sure. The thing with blackjack is that you'll be asking yourself that everytime you lose a hand that you "think" you should have won. I've played a session where the dealer converted their 5 or 6 FIVE TIMES in a row into a 21 or a 20. I lost 10k that session thinking that my double down's (20's) would hold, and that my splits would pay off.

Remember though...are mind makes as remember those loses more. How about those times that every double down you make in a shoe you get a face card? Or those times that a poor BJ player doesn't hit their 16 but "saves the table" and you win. Poor fellow would sure catch it when everyone loses though.

So...welcome to BJ and over the years you'll see some strange things.

The strangest I've ever seen is me having 3 spots with a 17, 15 and an 18 versus a dealer 3 of clubs...dealer draws another 3 of clubs and we're all thinking ok a face would be nice now...instead the third card is another 3 of clubs...now instead of focusing on the 3 of clubs we're worried the dealer would catch a face...my buddy then calls the pit over and jokingly says I'll bet you 200$ that the next card isn't a 3 of clubs...sure enough 3 of clubs comes up for a total of 12 for the dealer.

Well...a face will win me 1500 dollars. Nope, the fifth card is a 3 of diamonds, and the 6th card is a 3 of spades. A six card 18.

Apparently the pit boss entered this configuration into his computer and told us that this was a 1 in 13 million chance. I should have bought a lottery ticket.