Protecting yourself when ace sequencing

[Automatic Monkey]

Still in venue. I found a DD game with vulnerable shuffle, and I've been attacking it pretty heavily.

Here's the problem: I'm predicting the aces with accuracy beyond what I could believe. When I started the session I was quickly up several K. But when the crowd thinned out I found myself playing heads-up, then the trouble started.

I was still predicting the ace, but now dropping it on the dealer instead of one of my hands. Very consistently. In fact, without exaggeration, for 4 monster bets in a row the dealer got the ace, and 3 converted to naturals. I walked out of the casino with what I walked in with, not happy at all and ready to adjust my tactics.

So what's the best way to protect against this? A simple way seems to be not to use this tactic heads-up. Playing two hands didn't seem to help and according to my sim it really wouldn't.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Still in venue. I found a DD game with vulnerable shuffle, and I've been attacking it pretty heavily.

Here's the problem: I'm predicting the aces with accuracy beyond what I could believe. When I started the session I was quickly up several K. But when the crowd thinned out I found myself playing heads-up, then the trouble started.

I was still predicting the ace, but now dropping it on the dealer instead of one of my hands. Very consistently. In fact, without exaggeration, for 4 monster bets in a row the dealer got the ace, and 3 converted to naturals. I walked out of the casino with what I walked in with, not happy at all and ready to adjust my tactics.

So what's the best way to protect against this? A simple way seems to be not to use this tactic heads-up. Playing two hands didn't seem to help and according to my sim it really wouldn't.

It could be just negative variance. Although it does seem easier for the dealer to get that tracked ace since there aren't other players at the table to get it if you don't. So it is probably more profitable to track aces heads up, but it seems to have higher variance than a fuller table.

[Sonny]

Are you using standard sequencing (key cards, etc.)? You mentioned that spreading to multiple hands didn't help so maybe you are using a variation.

Is the dealer picking up the cards the same way when you are heads up? It would be much easier for the dealer to get sloppy if there is only one player at the table. They might be mixing the two hands as they collect them, transposing them (the dealer's hand on top instead of on the bottom or vice versa), riffling differently or some other weird mix-up.

The first thing to do would be to make sure you are not misjudging which cards will become the key cards (which I'm pretty confident you aren't). Once you know that your technique is correct then look at the game conditions. If the dealer is not doing anything differently then you might just be having bad variance. After all, the dealer is going to get the ace pretty often if you are only off by one card. That is just the nature of sequencing. The problem with playing heads up is that the only other person to get the ace is the dealer.

If you want to get more specific you can PM me.

-Sonny-

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes, upon reflection I think it is just variance. I'm using the standard technique with about a 35% theoretical sequence intactness. Very annoying variance!

There is probably some optimum number of hands that keeps your chance of getting the ace at a maximum while making the dealer's chance a minimum.

Oh and here's a little sequencing trick I came up with for hand-held games: after a key card has been recorded, and you get it's twin brother in another hand, arrange the cards in your hand such that the card this is a key for is also beneficial for the player to get, i.e. a 10 value card or even a 9. It's not so bad to put a big bet down and get a 10 or a 9.

[dacium]

If you know you or dealer will get an ace in a hand you have a massive advantage (because of blackjack payout and ability to hit soft etc.) What happened is just variance. Half the time he gets it half you do. I would have been all over that ****!

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by dacium

If you know you or dealer will get an ace in a hand you have a massive advantage (because of blackjack payout and ability to hit soft etc.) What happened is just variance. Half the time he gets it half you do. I would have been all over that ****!

It's even better than half the time if you spread to two hands, which I am assuming that he did.

[KenSmith]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Oh and here's a little sequencing trick I came up with for hand-held games: after a key card has been recorded, and you get it's twin brother in another hand, arrange the cards in your hand such that the card this is a key for is also beneficial for the player to get, i.e. a 10 value card or even a 9. It's not so bad to put a big bet down and get a 10 or a 9.

I've never seen this mentioned before. Great idea!

[Elhombre]

I make ace prediction for about 18 hours the week,
but at 6 deck shoes.
professionell since 1 month in my country.
To avoid that the dealer gets the ace.
I have to spread at least to 5 boxes.But sometimes it happens instead.
That means, the first two boxes with big bets and the others
with min. bets, if there are no other players.

I would make a simulation with cards at home, shuffling like the dealer,
and notice the range of the outcoming key cards and the aces.

the best elhombre

[EasyRhino]

Dumb question, as I'm pretyt ign'nt about ace sequencing in general, but where does the difficulty in keeping the ace away from the dealer come from?

Is it just being off by a few cards in the cut?

Is it difficulty in modulating your own place to force the ace into your hand?

Is it the fact that you can't control the play of the dealer?

[supercoolmancool]

The trouble with ace sequencing is that you don't know for sure when the ace is coming out so the dealer has a good chance of getting it too. You use key cards to predict the ace. With one riffle the sequence of cards in the discard tray gets separated by about one card, but you don't actually know how many cards separate the key card from the ace for 100% fact.