Need Help with Numbers

[tedloc]

Got into a discussion, with a guy who loves single deck 6/5 BJ. I told him to forget the game but he loves it. I made a comment that I thought it was beneficial to double down, with a blackjack vs. dealer 6. Based on 100 hands, $5 per hand, when the player has a blackjack, he will win $600. If he doubles vs dealer 6, he only has to win 61% to be ahead.
For you numbers guys. Can you expect to win 61% of the time by doubling an 11 vs dealer 6.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by tedloc

Got into a discussion, with a guy who loves single deck 6/5 BJ. I told him to forget the game but he loves it. I made a comment that I thought it was beneficial to double down, with a blackjack vs. dealer 6. Based on 100 hands, $5 per hand, when the player has a blackjack, he will win $600. If he doubles vs dealer 6, he only has to win 61% to be ahead.
For you numbers guys. Can you expect to win 61% of the time by doubling an 11 vs dealer 6.

You'd probably need a good count to double a blackjack. I don't think it's BS to double a blackjack, even in 6:5 blackjack. But with the lower payout on the blackjack, there would probably be indexes on when to double your blackjack. They count never gets that high in 3:2 blackjack, but in 6:5 it probably does.

[shadroch]

I asked a similar question about a year ago and someone,I believe it was Ken Smith, gave the numbers that showed it is not a good play.You are not factoring in your losses

100 hands of BJ= $600 profit
61 hands winning a DD=1210
39 losing DDs= 780
$1210-780=430

Thats if you use your 61% figure.You'd need to win at quite a higher rate to make it worth while

[tedloc]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I asked a similar question about a year ago and someone,I believe it was Ken Smith, gave the numbers that showed it is not a good play.You are not factoring in your losses

100 hands of BJ= $600 profit
61 hands winning a DD=1210
39 losing DDs= 780
$1210-780=430

Thats if you use your 61% figure.You'd need to win at quite a higher rate to make it worth while

I realize that you must subtract your losses. If you bet $5 per hand that makes it a $10 double. Getting paid 6/5 on BJ will get you $600 on 100 hands. If you win the double down, 80% of the time and lose 20% you will break even. My question again is... How many hands can you expect to win with, 11 vs dealer 6?

[aka23]

Am I missing something here? It obviously is not optimal strategy to double down on a blackjack. Even if blackjack pays 1:1, the average gain by doubling down is still about 30% lower than standing.

[tedloc]

Originally Posted by aka23

Am I missing something here? It obviously is not optimal strategy to double down on a blackjack. Even if blackjack pays 1:1, the average gain by doubling down is still about 30% lower than standing.

Of course it not good strategy to double on a blackjack. Let me try again. How many hands out of 100 can you expect to win with 11 vs dealer 6.

[SystemsTrader]

Originally Posted by tedloc

Got into a discussion, with a guy who loves single deck 6/5 BJ. I told him to forget the game but he loves it. I made a comment that I thought it was beneficial to double down, with a blackjack vs. dealer 6. Based on 100 hands, $5 per hand, when the player has a blackjack, he will win $600. If he doubles vs dealer 6, he only has to win 61% to be ahead.
For you numbers guys. Can you expect to win 61% of the time by doubling an 11 vs dealer 6.

Blackjack vs. dealer 6 in 1D H17
stand= 1.2
hit= 0.339582
double= 0.679165