Please help a new guy!!!

[OregonRick]

I have been studying, and practicing blackjack on CVBJ for about 2 months now. I use the hi-lo counting system, and in about a month, I think that I will be ready to play at a casino. Here is the setup on the blackjack game I will be playing in.

Lucky Ladies-
*any 20 pays 4-1
*suited 20 pays 9-1
*matched 20 pays 19-1
*Queen of Hearts Pair pays 125-1
*Queen of Hearts Pair with Dealer Blackjack pays 1000-1

Blackjack-
*6 deck shoe
*Dealer hits soft 17
*Double down on any 2 cards
*Split pairs up to 4 times
*about 80-85% penetration
* no surrender
*Blackjack pays 3-2

Questions-
1. I have about $1000 spending money every month after bills, so I am giving myself a $1000 Bank roll. With a $1000 Bank roll starting out, what kind of betting strategy should I be using?

2. On My Lucky Lady side bets, at what true count should I start betting the lucky ladies, and what kind of betting strategy should I be using on the lucky ladies as well?

3. Getting a matched 20 on Lucky Ladies...Does that mean that my 20 has to be paired, or paired and suited?

4. I also read somewhere that once the true count gets pretty high that it may start working against me(obviuosly not on lucky ladies). At what kind of true count can I expect this to happen?

Lots of questions. Sorry, but I want to get it right the first time. Thanx!

[supercoolmancool]

If you bankroll is only $1000, then you can only afford a $10 max bet. But since you have a replinishable bankroll every month you can play like it is a lot more. Someone else could probably help you more.

[OregonRick]

Originally Posted by supercoolmancool

If you bankroll is only $1000, then you can only afford a $10 max bet. But since you have a replinishable bankroll every month you can play like it is a lot more. Someone else could probably help you more.

What would be a more realistic bankroll to consider for myself?

[supercoolmancool]

I really don't know exactly, but I know someone else does. You could play like you have a $12,000 bankroll and use a $120 max bet. The thing is that you will bust out a ton and lose a lot of playing time. You need to find the perfect balance.

[halcyon1234]

Originally Posted by OregonRick

What would be a more realistic bankroll to consider for myself?

In general, the "safest" way to play (lowest RoR vs. good returns) is that your max bet should be 1% of your bankroll.

However, some people say you can make your max bet up to 10% of your bankroll, provided you are willing to accept the additional risk of busting out completely.

If your bankroll is replenishable, I'd say that you should play it more aggressively. Over the long term, you'll make up for the bust outs with good sessions with higher bets.

As for the "higher count turning agaist you" thing: That is just variance. Blackjack is unsafe at any count. There's ALWAYS the chance you'll bust out completely. But the higher the count, the more returns you will see (if you are betting appropriately). There's no "turn against you" mark. It's just that busting out a high count FEELS worse, because you have the edge at that point.

To prove my point, think about a deck that ONLY has 10s and aces. Every hand, one of three things will happen (assuming you don't hit a hard 20)

1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet
3) You have 21 and the dealer has 20, you win 3:2

Since it is equally likely that either you or the dealer will have blackjack, you have the edge, since the house only gets your bet when you lose, and you get 1.5 your bet when you win. EV = (1.5)(.5) - (1)(.5) = .75 - .5 = +.25.

[bluewhale]

Originally Posted by halcyon1234

1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet

not sure what you were trying to prove there, but you're edge is actually considerably higher. remember that insurance now becomes a VERY good bet to take.

[OregonRick]

Originally Posted by halcyon1234

In general, the "safest" way to play (lowest RoR vs. good returns) is that your max bet should be 1% of your bankroll.

However, some people say you can make your max bet up to 10% of your bankroll, provided you are willing to accept the additional risk of busting out completely.

If your bankroll is replenishable, I'd say that you should play it more aggressively. Over the long term, you'll make up for the bust outs with good sessions with higher bets.

As for the "higher count turning agaist you" thing: That is just variance. Blackjack is unsafe at any count. There's ALWAYS the chance you'll bust out completely. But the higher the count, the more returns you will see (if you are betting appropriately). There's no "turn against you" mark. It's just that busting out a high count FEELS worse, because you have the edge at that point.

To prove my point, think about a deck that ONLY has 10s and aces. Every hand, one of three things will happen (assuming you don't hit a hard 20)

1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet
3) You have 21 and the dealer has 20, you win 3:2

Since it is equally likely that either you or the dealer will have blackjack, you have the edge, since the house only gets your bet when you lose, and you get 1.5 your bet when you win. EV = (1.5)(.5) - (1)(.5) = .75 - .5 = +.25.

I am thinking of making my max bet right now $25, but may be willing to go as high as $50. What kind of betting should I be doing vs. the true count. I am a little behind on CVBJ and am wandering if my betting stategy may be a little off.

[supercoolmancool]

Definately spread to $50. $25 is worthless.

[EasyRhino]

I started out doing $5-$25, that was mainly "practice mode". Vs. a 6 deck shoe, it's possibly breakeven without wonging. With wonging, it's profitable, but trivially so.

[supercoolmancool]

Ha Ha. That remids me of someone on this forum who got barred for spreading 5-30. That's rediculous. But I guess the casinos simply can't rationalize paying a dealer to deal to someone with an edge. Makes sense I guess.