Please help a new guy!!!

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OregonRick

Active Member
#1
#1
I have been studying, and practicing blackjack on CVBJ for about 2 months now. I use the hi-lo counting system, and in about a month, I think that I will be ready to play at a casino. Here is the setup on the blackjack game I will be playing in.

Lucky Ladies-
*any 20 pays 4-1
*suited 20 pays 9-1
*matched 20 pays 19-1
*Queen of Hearts Pair pays 125-1
*Queen of Hearts Pair with Dealer Blackjack pays 1000-1

Blackjack-
*6 deck shoe
*Dealer hits soft 17
*Double down on any 2 cards
*Split pairs up to 4 times
*about 80-85% penetration
* no surrender
*Blackjack pays 3-2

Questions-
1. I have about $1000 spending money every month after bills, so I am giving myself a $1000 Bank roll. With a $1000 Bank roll starting out, what kind of betting strategy should I be using?

2. On My Lucky Lady side bets, at what true count should I start betting the lucky ladies, and what kind of betting strategy should I be using on the lucky ladies as well?

3. Getting a matched 20 on Lucky Ladies...Does that mean that my 20 has to be paired, or paired and suited?

4. I also read somewhere that once the true count gets pretty high that it may start working against me(obviuosly not on lucky ladies). At what kind of true count can I expect this to happen?

Lots of questions. Sorry, but I want to get it right the first time. Thanx!
 
supercoolmancool

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
If you bankroll is only $1000, then you can only afford a $10 max bet. But since you have a replinishable bankroll every month you can play like it is a lot more. Someone else could probably help you more.
 
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OregonRick

Active Member
#3
#3
supercoolmancool said:
If you bankroll is only $1000, then you can only afford a $10 max bet. But since you have a replinishable bankroll every month you can play like it is a lot more. Someone else could probably help you more.
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What would be a more realistic bankroll to consider for myself?
 
supercoolmancool

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
I really don't know exactly, but I know someone else does. You could play like you have a $12,000 bankroll and use a $120 max bet. The thing is that you will bust out a ton and lose a lot of playing time. You need to find the perfect balance.
 
halcyon1234

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
OregonRick said:
What would be a more realistic bankroll to consider for myself?
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In general, the "safest" way to play (lowest RoR vs. good returns) is that your max bet should be 1% of your bankroll.

However, some people say you can make your max bet up to 10% of your bankroll, provided you are willing to accept the additional risk of busting out completely.

If your bankroll is replenishable, I'd say that you should play it more aggressively. Over the long term, you'll make up for the bust outs with good sessions with higher bets.

As for the "higher count turning agaist you" thing: That is just variance. Blackjack is unsafe at any count. There's ALWAYS the chance you'll bust out completely. But the higher the count, the more returns you will see (if you are betting appropriately). There's no "turn against you" mark. It's just that busting out a high count FEELS worse, because you have the edge at that point.

To prove my point, think about a deck that ONLY has 10s and aces. Every hand, one of three things will happen (assuming you don't hit a hard 20)

1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet
3) You have 21 and the dealer has 20, you win 3:2

Since it is equally likely that either you or the dealer will have blackjack, you have the edge, since the house only gets your bet when you lose, and you get 1.5 your bet when you win. EV = (1.5)(.5) - (1)(.5) = .75 - .5 = +.25.
 
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bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
halcyon1234 said:
1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet
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not sure what you were trying to prove there, but you're edge is actually considerably higher. remember that insurance now becomes a VERY good bet to take.
 
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OregonRick

Active Member
#7
#7
halcyon1234 said:
In general, the "safest" way to play (lowest RoR vs. good returns) is that your max bet should be 1% of your bankroll.

However, some people say you can make your max bet up to 10% of your bankroll, provided you are willing to accept the additional risk of busting out completely.

If your bankroll is replenishable, I'd say that you should play it more aggressively. Over the long term, you'll make up for the bust outs with good sessions with higher bets.

As for the "higher count turning agaist you" thing: That is just variance. Blackjack is unsafe at any count. There's ALWAYS the chance you'll bust out completely. But the higher the count, the more returns you will see (if you are betting appropriately). There's no "turn against you" mark. It's just that busting out a high count FEELS worse, because you have the edge at that point.

To prove my point, think about a deck that ONLY has 10s and aces. Every hand, one of three things will happen (assuming you don't hit a hard 20)

1) You and the dealer tie with 20 or 21, push
2) The dealer has 21 and you have 20, you lose your bet
3) You have 21 and the dealer has 20, you win 3:2

Since it is equally likely that either you or the dealer will have blackjack, you have the edge, since the house only gets your bet when you lose, and you get 1.5 your bet when you win. EV = (1.5)(.5) - (1)(.5) = .75 - .5 = +.25.
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I am thinking of making my max bet right now $25, but may be willing to go as high as $50. What kind of betting should I be doing vs. the true count. I am a little behind on CVBJ and am wandering if my betting stategy may be a little off.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
I started out doing $5-$25, that was mainly "practice mode". Vs. a 6 deck shoe, it's possibly breakeven without wonging. With wonging, it's profitable, but trivially so.
 
supercoolmancool

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Ha Ha. That remids me of someone on this forum who got barred for spreading 5-30. That's rediculous. But I guess the casinos simply can't rationalize paying a dealer to deal to someone with an edge. Makes sense I guess.
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Barred? $5-$30!

Yeah, That caught my attention too. I just got done playing 10+ hrs. in those ( over 5 days) same places with that same spread on 2D. No trouble at all. I think this gentleman should definitely practice his cover, at least not use fingers or count out loud!
 
halcyon1234

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
bluewhale said:
not sure what you were trying to prove there, but you're edge is actually considerably higher. remember that insurance now becomes a VERY good bet to take.
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True, true. That would make EV much higher, I forgot that. 80% chance of a 10 in the hole.

I was just pointing out that there's no magical "cutoff" for the count. The higher it gets, the better the EV for the player. To prove it, you only need to look at the deck's status at the highest count. If there was a cutoff, then an all 10/A deck would be bad for the player.
 
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squaredancer

Member
#13
#13
lucky ladies

DON/T DON'T even play them the house edge is way to high and i have seen a lot of money given away. at $1 per hand you will lose a $10 bet every ten hands. once saw 16 hands, 5 players 6 deck before they hit. was in reno at time.
 
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bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
oregon, you've probably seen the MIT show on breaking vegas... many people think its cheesy or whatever, but i really think there is a lot of useful information there.
you might have a limited bankroll or whatever, but the single most important thing for a card counter is to get the money out when you have the advantage. now if you go out there and only raise to 20 bucks at a TC of 5, you're not playing a winning game anymore. you might as well take your bankroll and spend it on some new shoes or something, cause its gonna be gone pretty soon. i think everything is secondary to the first law, make sure you are playing a winning game, which means bet high enough when you have the advantage. its better to err on the side of betting too much in fact. i'd rather be the guy with the high ROR, but who is playing an advantage game than the other way around.

note: you could choose to practice with a 1-5 spread, but know that it is maayybe a break even game and don't stay there for long. with your BR, and the fact that it is replenishable, def. do the 5-50 spread, and u could consider going as high as 100 if you wong.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
OregonRick said:
So if I change my max bet to $50, and my minimum stays at $5, what should my betting be in relation to the true count?
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You calculate your max bet based on your bankroll. Say you have a 5000 dollar bankroll, in general you would divide 5000/100 to get a 50 dollar max bet.

Then to calculate your minimum bet you would decide on the best spread to beat the game, but still get away with it. If you decide 1-10 is good for both of those, then 5 dollars would be your minimum bet.

You always calculate your top bet based on your bankroll, and your min bet based on the spread you will use. You don't just throw out numbers. You cant just change your top bet from 25 to 50, unless you have the bankroll to support that increase.
 
M

mdlbj

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
On a 10 dollar table, you should bring 1200. Also, play the best table rules that you can find. Buy in for 500 if your solo.. Use wonging liberally. Use a 12/1 spread..I think I read your BR is disposable. Be perfect in your play and dont drink.
 
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OregonRick

Active Member
#19
#19
ScottH said:
You calculate your max bet based on your bankroll. Say you have a 5000 dollar bankroll, in general you would divide 5000/100 to get a 50 dollar max bet.

Then to calculate your minimum bet you would decide on the best spread to beat the game, but still get away with it. If you decide 1-10 is good for both of those, then 5 dollars would be your minimum bet.

You always calculate your top bet based on your bankroll, and your min bet based on the spread you will use. You don't just throw out numbers. You cant just change your top bet from 25 to 50, unless you have the bankroll to support that increase.
Click to expand...
I appreciate all the info. on betting. I do have one more question in regards to a betting strategy for lucky ladies. I know that I am suppose to start betting on lucky ladies with a 6 deck shoe when the true count reaches +4. I am assuming that if my normal betting ranges from $5-$50, then my betting on lucky ladies would follow the same range of bets, and at a true count of +4 I would be betting $5. What kind of betting strategy would be best to use on the lucky ladies side bet in relation to the true count?
 
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bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
well the LL side bet is not so much a money maker as much as a cover play move. sure when the count hits +4 u have a slight edge there, but remember you have a bigger edge on your blackjack hand, so why not just take your LL bet and put it with your other 50 bucks? also keep in mind that the LL bet has a HUGE amount of variance associated with it. so my advice, unless you really feel like gambling, stay away from the ladies.

OregonRick said:
I appreciate all the info. on betting. I do have one more question in regards to a betting strategy for lucky ladies. I know that I am suppose to start betting on lucky ladies with a 6 deck shoe when the true count reaches +4. I am assuming that if my normal betting ranges from $5-$50, then my betting on lucky ladies would follow the same range of bets, and at a true count of +4 I would be betting $5. What kind of betting strategy would be best to use on the lucky ladies side bet in relation to the true count?
Click to expand...
 
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