I'm just finishing up a sequencing mission at a theoretically very beatable shuffle in Atlantic City, and oh was this trip a disaster.
First clue- the bus ride. I got a mighty comp at the store in question so being I wouldn't need to stay out at the roach motels on Rt 30, I wouldn't need a car, so I took the bus from CT to AC to save expenses. It was late every step of the way. The leg from CT to NYC was OK but the next one was full, cramped and dirty. The malt liquor and fried chicken was being passed around like an ethnic joke being acted out. Some of these people don't have the best hygiene either, and BO was everywhere. Couldn't wait to get off.
Then the real pain began. I decided to take my first run single-ace, single-key, and had good results. Then it just turned to garbage. And the amazing part was, I was catching my bullets! Just nothing to go with them. Typically I'd end up with a soft double, get stiffed and the dealer would catch a 5 card hand. Unbelievable. I switched to a couple of other simplified methods that don't require memorizing 24-32 key cards so I could both record and play back keys on the same shoe, with about the same results. Finally I played a carnival game where you have over a 5% advantage if the next card is not an ace, to let the variance associated with sequencing work against the house rather than against me, and I got absolutely hammered. Sure, I was dodging the dealer's aces quite well, but he just caught hands time after time after time. Walked away to reanalyze.
I came up with this- that the variance for this type of sequencing is probably a lot higher than for counting because you are predicting only one card, whereas counting provides a degree of prediction for all cards. In other words, if the deck is rich in 10's, I not only have a better chance of getting a natural and of a double down converting desirably, but of the dealer busting not only on his first draw but on any card he draws. Single-key single-ace sequencing helps me get an ace on my first card but does exactly nothing for my second card, nor for the dealer's draws. So even if I get my ace, there's no expectation that the rest of the cards won't be working against me, thus the effect of every card other than my first one is pure luck. So it would seem that I can't bet a hand with a 2% advantage due to sequencing as aggressively as I would a hand with a 2% advantage due to counting. Does this make sense? Thanks in advance.
First clue- the bus ride. I got a mighty comp at the store in question so being I wouldn't need to stay out at the roach motels on Rt 30, I wouldn't need a car, so I took the bus from CT to AC to save expenses. It was late every step of the way. The leg from CT to NYC was OK but the next one was full, cramped and dirty. The malt liquor and fried chicken was being passed around like an ethnic joke being acted out. Some of these people don't have the best hygiene either, and BO was everywhere. Couldn't wait to get off.
Then the real pain began. I decided to take my first run single-ace, single-key, and had good results. Then it just turned to garbage. And the amazing part was, I was catching my bullets! Just nothing to go with them. Typically I'd end up with a soft double, get stiffed and the dealer would catch a 5 card hand. Unbelievable. I switched to a couple of other simplified methods that don't require memorizing 24-32 key cards so I could both record and play back keys on the same shoe, with about the same results. Finally I played a carnival game where you have over a 5% advantage if the next card is not an ace, to let the variance associated with sequencing work against the house rather than against me, and I got absolutely hammered. Sure, I was dodging the dealer's aces quite well, but he just caught hands time after time after time. Walked away to reanalyze.
I came up with this- that the variance for this type of sequencing is probably a lot higher than for counting because you are predicting only one card, whereas counting provides a degree of prediction for all cards. In other words, if the deck is rich in 10's, I not only have a better chance of getting a natural and of a double down converting desirably, but of the dealer busting not only on his first draw but on any card he draws. Single-key single-ace sequencing helps me get an ace on my first card but does exactly nothing for my second card, nor for the dealer's draws. So even if I get my ace, there's no expectation that the rest of the cards won't be working against me, thus the effect of every card other than my first one is pure luck. So it would seem that I can't bet a hand with a 2% advantage due to sequencing as aggressively as I would a hand with a 2% advantage due to counting. Does this make sense? Thanks in advance.
