shuffle track slugs

blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I'll open up on a recent experience I had at my favorite casino. It was a lower limit table and was counting as usual. It was toward the end of the shoe I estimated one deck before the cut card with one and a half decks behind. The count was really high then started to nose dive the entire last deck out. I attempted to nonchalantly follow the plug through the shuffle which was fairly easy since the dealer did a really poor job of shuffling. I was in luck they let me cut the deck and I did my best to cut the slug to the top. I geuss I was lucky because I took a risk and put a larger bet than normal out for the first four hands and made up the loss for previous hands. It was uncanny how the cards stayed clumped with a little variance you were almost able to tell when those plugs were coming. I did read in a little about in blackbelt anymore insites about actual expereinces. blackchipjim
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
I play mostly at the Borgata. I've watched some shuffles, but am at a loss how to follow them. I don't know if their shuffle is more complex that most (would be interested in hearing about that from Sonny or Bojack) but they take the unplayed cards, divide them into 3 slugs and place them separately within the played cards. Then they break the 6 decks into 4 piles, taking cards from multiple piles and mix them. It's like trying to follow a shell game, at least for me.
 
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Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
21forme said:
I play mostly at the Borgata. I've watched some shuffles, but am at a loss how to follow them. I don't know if their shuffle is more complex that most (would be interested in hearing about that from Sonny or Bojack) but they take the unplayed cards, divide them into 3 slugs and place them separately within the played cards. Then they break the 6 decks into 4 piles, taking cards from multiple piles and mix them. It's like trying to follow a shell game, at least for me.
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The shuffle at the Borgata can be exploitable, but its not the ideal one to look for. At least for me anyway. If you wanted to figure out how to track a slug through that shuffle I would practice the exact shuffle they perform with a marked packet of cards that you would be able to follow through the complete shuffle. That way you could reasonably tell what could or couldn't practically be tracked. It also will give you a good idea what happens to the cards as they get shuffled. You will see that it is better to have your tracked cards to be at the bottom side of a pick other than the top, because most will stay together as random cards get shuffled in. If you get really into it and study the mechanics of the shuffle and the characteristics of card movement that pertains to that shuffle, then you should be able to determine if you have a trackable game. If you do, then you should be able to determine location and strength. You will also find that the shell game type shuffle as you refer to it, is really a bunch of smoke. Once your tracked slug is shuffled in its just sitting in the big stack of cards waiting to be rolled. On a typical 2 pass shuffle there will be only 2 seperate instances where you need to follow the cards. Once you identify where they have been put, all you need to do is know that spot and ignore the rest of the shuffle. If they repeat the procedure, watch your track to see where is picked and where it goes, and then again just remember that and ignore the rest of the shuffle. A helpful hint for tracking at the Borgata is, make the track as small as possible while still keeping it worth tracking. It will be easier to keep it together as they pick the cards.
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
I personally wouldn't "casually track" a slug of cards. That's probably equivilalent to just "watching" for tens and aces, but not counting. You really can't be sure if you really have the advantage or not.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#6
#6
Bojack1 said:
The shuffle at the Borgata can be exploitable, but its not the ideal one to look for. At least for me anyway. If you wanted to figure out how to track a slug through that shuffle I would practice the exact shuffle they perform with a marked packet of cards that you would be able to follow through the complete shuffle. That way you could reasonably tell what could or couldn't practically be tracked. It also will give you a good idea what happens to the cards as they get shuffled. You will see that it is better to have your tracked cards to be at the bottom side of a pick other than the top, because most will stay together as random cards get shuffled in. If you get really into it and study the mechanics of the shuffle and the characteristics of card movement that pertains to that shuffle, then you should be able to determine if you have a trackable game. If you do, then you should be able to determine location and strength. You will also find that the shell game type shuffle as you refer to it, is really a bunch of smoke. Once your tracked slug is shuffled in its just sitting in the big stack of cards waiting to be rolled. On a typical 2 pass shuffle there will be only 2 seperate instances where you need to follow the cards. Once you identify where they have been put, all you need to do is know that spot and ignore the rest of the shuffle. If they repeat the procedure, watch your track to see where is picked and where it goes, and then again just remember that and ignore the rest of the shuffle. A helpful hint for tracking at the Borgata is, make the track as small as possible while still keeping it worth tracking. It will be easier to keep it together as they pick the cards.
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I have a bunch of red and blue backed decks of Aviators, and when I'm analyzing a shuffle by hand I'll put a blue deck in various places in the shoe with the red. It makes it obvious where they ended up.

But normally when I'm playing a shuffle like the one you describe, I use the other method of identifying when a rich slug is coming up. It has one major disadvantage, one minor disadvantage, but a huge advantage in that I can track several slugs as easily as one. It's also much better for Wonging into slugs, because I don't have to stand and watch the shuffle.
 
R

RJT

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Automatic Monkey said:
But normally when I'm playing a shuffle like the one you describe, I use the other method of identifying when a rich slug is coming up. It has one major disadvantage, one minor disadvantage, but a huge advantage in that I can track several slugs as easily as one. It's also much better for Wonging into slugs, because I don't have to stand and watch the shuffle.
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OK AM, i'll ask. What is this method you describe?

RJT.
 
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Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Automatic Monkey said:
I have a bunch of red and blue backed decks of Aviators, and when I'm analyzing a shuffle by hand I'll put a blue deck in various places in the shoe with the red. It makes it obvious where they ended up.

But normally when I'm playing a shuffle like the one you describe, I use the other method of identifying when a rich slug is coming up. It has one major disadvantage, one minor disadvantage, but a huge advantage in that I can track several slugs as easily as one. It's also much better for Wonging into slugs, because I don't have to stand and watch the shuffle.
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I hope you are not suggesting that you are keying your slugs in this situation, and if you are, I applaud you because you would be 1 out of the many professionals that I know that actually do that with this shuffle. The variance on such a method is so great due to way too many independant variables, along with how to determine the strength of it for proper bet size without seeing the shuffle, that most feel its not a winning procedure. If that is what you are doing and you have a winning record with it, you are better than any I have seen. And that says a lot. Of course I would have to see it to believe it.
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
slug tracks

I myself by no means would attempt to use tracking as advantage play. I have at times counted to really high counts in the shoe only to have the cut card arrive at the same time the high cards started to show up. The casino has a standard shuffle procedure that all dealers use,keep in mind some are tired or don't take the time to follow through procedure on shuffle. First they take the cards left in shoe and split three or two plugs the discard rack. The deck is split three pile which is riffled alernately to a center stack. How often they split or meld the piles varies with crowd conditions in the joint and if the players are winning or losing. I have not practiced like Arnold Synder say to in Blackbelt but just trying to track larger slugs and seeing how accurate you are is a challenge. It does amaze me how poorly decks are shuffled at times. I have seen and experienced card sequences that you can almost call the next card out. blackchipjim
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
slugs and others

Well I have been practicing following the big slugs at two different times. Once with 7players at the table we had face after face with blackjacks for two players and three the next hand. The cut card came after the third high round in a row the count plummeted with these three hands into negitive territory. I watched the dealer as closely as possible and tried to track that slug through the shuffle. It was my turn to cut the 8decks and tried my luck much to my surprise there they were with little dilution I pissed alot of people off because the dealer got three naturals in a row but I felt somewhat accomplished at least this time. blackchipjim
 
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RJT

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
That's fantastic. Nothing feels better than tracking a packet through a shuffle and watching all the Aces and Faces come out when you've got your max bets out. Except winning those hands too ;)
One thing i'd say though is that if you are not confident enough in you skills to actually wager the money on them yet, don't do it. Never mind the fact that you probably need a bit more practice, if you practice in the casino you ruin your counting game. If all the high cards come out at the start of the shoe, it's very unlikely that you'll see a positive count later on.

RJT.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
blackchipjim said:
I watched the dealer as closely as possible and tried to track that slug through the shuffle. It was my turn to cut the 8decks and tried my luck much to my surprise there they were with little dilution I pissed alot of people off because the dealer got three naturals in a row but I felt somewhat accomplished at least this time.
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Well done! That’s a pretty difficult method of tracking as well (in my opinion). It can be tough to follow a random hot slug through the shuffle and it takes excellent deck estimation skills. An easier method is to track certain sections of the discards regardless of their content. For example, you may decide to always track the bottom deck of the discards every time. It is a very easy section to follow since you don’t have to remember where it is while you play the rest of the shoe. Once you get the count(s) you will know right where they are without having to estimate their location. You can then decide how to cut them based on their count.

I’ve found this method to be a bit easier, although somewhat less effective. You’ll often be cutting bad slugs out of play, which isn’t as profitable as cutting hot slugs to the top but it does give you a break-even game off the top while you’re tracking the next shoe. It might be good practice for you to find certain segments that are easy to track (tops, bottoms, cutoffs, etc.) and just keep an eye on them. Once you get some confidence with this method you will feel better about tracking the random hot slugs.

-Sonny-
 
blackchipjim

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
slug trails

To tell you the truth I tried to track shuffles before I even started to count cards. I did it more for amusement than anything else. The table would be full of faces and aces and would never let that slug lose my sight in the shuffle. When someone would cut it up or out I would adjust my bets to when I thought they would reappear. I still do it for fun but I concentrate only on the count and betting. blackchipjim
 
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