Please Help Need Some Advice

#1
New to the Forum and also to the game...browsed the web and this site appears to be the place to go to find answers for your questions. I tried this last week, well before I had ever heard the word Martingale or "progressive betting", and it appears I haven't made any great discovery. But, I did exactly what is described below last week at a Horseshoe Casino on the Missouri River between Omaha, NE and Council Bluffs, IA for a period of four days. I understand the whole "double betting" systems is said to have not work in the long run due to the streaks in which you lose the unthinkable ten plus times in a row, and also 1.) The amount of bankroll you need to back it up and 2.) The maximum limits at the tables. I guess what I did last week is exactly what everyone discusses except one variation.

I know there are some experts on this site, and I am asking for any help regarding advice on the situation below.

I played an average of six hours a day for 4 straight days, Tues-Fri. I averaged approx $300 in profit every 2 hours and walked away Friday afternoon with $3780 in pure profit. This is what I did, but how many times can I pull this off? What are the odds? Please help....

This is how I played:

Table rules that applied - $5 Min / $5000 Max

- I walked into the casino knowing ahead of time that I would need enough money to back my theory up in order to truly see if it worked.

- I planned to bet the min $5, then if lost continue to bet the 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, and 2560. I had the backing financially to do this and follow thru till the end. As you can see, with the table rules of the $5000 max, this strategy above would allow me lose 9 consecutive times as long as I won the 10th (a $2560 bet).

Due to the fact that I am still learning to play smarter and am not very good at card counting yet, I wanted to try out a betting strategy approach. But as I was thinking of what I wanted to do, this thought occured to me. I had a better chance if I didn't rely on my playing ability, but rather counted on the chance that a Dealer wouldn't go 10 consecutive hands without busting.

These are the rules that I abided by:
-Never hit on 12 or above, ever. That eliminated the option of busting.
-Never double down, split, etc.
-Play $5 Min, if lost double to $10, then to $20, and so on....meaning every winning hand gave me exactly a $5 profit each and every time.

Basically I was a winner as long as the Dealer didn't go 10 consecutive hands without busting above 21.

In four days of playing the most hands a dealer went in a row without busting was 7, and she busted on the 8th. I had $640 on the table and I won my $5 profit. This allowed me to walk with almost four large by the time Friday rolled around, all on winning $5 hands based on the principle the Dealer wasn't going to deal 10 consecutive hands and never bust.

If anyone has any input on this please speak up. What are the odds that the Dealer would go 10 hands without busting once? Does anyone have any idea?
I know this sounds like the Martingale, but I'm basing my theory soley on the idea of the Dealer going 10 hands, not on my playing ability, since I myself will NEVER bust using the set rules.

I understand that at some point you would eventually take an approx $5000 loss and lose ten in a row, but wouldn't it be well less than the profits I am going to make weekly?

Also, the 11th hand would require a bet of $5120, just a bit over the max, but would also mean you can really allow yourself another shot on the 11th try since $5120 isn't far off from the table Max. Figure the odds of that.

I look forward to your community's advice. Thank you.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
This casino allows you to bet $5 minimum and $5,000 max at the same table?
I've never seen a spread greater than 5-500 before.

As for advice-you are playing with fire and you know it.

To review quickly- your system calls for you to double your bet until you win,and each winning series results in a $5 profit.Yet you claim to be making $300 profit every two hours.Pretty amazing.Please remember us when you are rich.
 

sabre

Well-Known Member
#3
If I have two strategies that are identical except that in

Strategy 1
----------
I never hit a hard 12 or higher

Strategy 2
----------
I hit hard 12-16 vs a dealer 7,8,9,T,A
I hit hard 12 vs a dealer 2,3


I will experience 10 straight losses more often using strategy 1 than with strategy 2.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#6
Scary. as. hell.

24 hours of play is, in human terms, a lot. In terms of losing ten times in a row, though, it's not a particularly long stretch.

Let's see, if it was a coin flip, odds of losing 10 in a row would be .5^10, or .09%? If you assume 60 hands/hr (slow play) over 24 hours, that's 1440 hands. But the odds of not busting over that many 10 hand segments hands are... I dunno. .991^100? that gives a 27% chance of survival. I don't really know my math, so it's best to ignore that.

As for the playing strategy, well, not good at all. I can almost understand not splitting or doubling (it would be tough if you had a $1000 bet out there). But not hitting a stiff? That's just bad. While the Martingale is bad, if you have a choice between a Martingale that relies on the dealer busting, and a Martingale that relies on the dealer winning, I'll take the latter one all the time. The dealer busts far less than she loses. Playing more properly could have shrank some of your 6-in-a-row loss streaks to 4- or 5-in-a-row.

What I'm most interested in is the casinos reaction to your play. How much attention were you getting from floor personnel? Did they make any comments to you about your play? While I'm sure they recognized what your strategy was, I'm wondering... did they start to sweat your action any?
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#7
Lets see?

You won $3,780 is 24 hours of play. That means 756 times you got a $5 profit. Since you should average about 60 hands per hour, or 1,440 hands in 24 hours, and you did not double or split, you are telling us that you won 1,098 hands and lost only 342???

Please, throw this stuff somewhere else. We get enough trolls

ihate17
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#8
ihate17 said:
You won $3,780 is 24 hours of play. That means 756 times you got a $5 profit. Since you should average about 60 hands per hour, or 1,440 hands in 24 hours, and you did not double or split, you are telling us that you won 1,098 hands and lost only 342???

Please, throw this stuff somewhere else. We get enough trolls

ihate17
I bet he is talking about an online casino. They offer much larger spreads, so 5-5000 is possible, and he could also get way more than 60 hands per hour in. That would explain it. He could be telling the truth.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#9
ScottH said:
I bet he is talking about an online casino. They offer much larger spreads, so 5-5000 is possible,
a) He said he was in Iowa.
b) I usually see table limits on line hiting at 250, 500, or 1000 dollars.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#10
He claims he is talking about the Horseshoe in Iowa.

If someone wants to come on to a site that has numeroues BJ experts and a lot of people who play,you would hope they would at least learn the parameters before attempting a hoax.
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#11
I'm with IH17

ScottH said:
I bet he is talking about an online casino. They offer much larger spreads, so 5-5000 is possible, and he could also get way more than 60 hands per hour in. That would explain it. He could be telling the truth.
The original post states, in fact that he was playing at the Horsehoe near Omaha, so its sounds fishy to me too. Good catch Ih17!
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#12
EasyRhino said:
a) He said he was in Iowa.
b) I usually see table limits on line hiting at 250, 500, or 1000 dollars.
I've seen 2-2000 online, so that's why I thought it was entirely possible to see 5-5000 somewhere. In a land-based casino, I highly doubt you would ever see 5-5000.

Shardroch, I am curious to what hoax he is trying to pull. It doesn't seem like he is selling his "system", so the only hoax would be trying to get people to use the faulty system, which wouldn't benefit him at all.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#13
bj bob said:
The original post states, in fact that he was playing at the Horsehoe near Omaha, so its sounds fishy to me too. Good catch Ih17!
Ha, well I didn't actually read the post. It would be a waste of my time! :)
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#14
ihate17 said:
You won $3,780 is 24 hours of play. That means 756 times you got a $5 profit. Since you should average about 60 hands per hour, or 1,440 hands in 24 hours, and you did not double or split, you are telling us that you won 1,098 hands and lost only 342???
ihate17
Well I think it would mean that he won 756 serieses (that's the plural of series lol). I mean he never lost $5 - he either wins $5 or loses $5115 right? So it really means he had 756 outright wins which would be a huge win rate for 1440 hands. So he probably played more hands. At 1440 hands that would mean each series averaged less than 2 hands.

Anyway, if craps or roulette have the same betting spread, he'd be alot better off playing that rather than BJ when the house has about a 6% HA due to not doubling and splitting and never hitting a bust hand.

So I'd say it's about a 1 in 600 chance, probably less, of the dealer getting 10 losses in a row and, considering there have been about 1430 chances, probably more, of losing 10 in a row, he has been most fortunate up to now.

I think it pretty darn unlikely the most the dealer ever lost in a row was 7 hands.

Maybe the casino will leave the limit alone, assuming it's true, knowing a sucker when they see one. Best advice - take your win and never go back!
 

Preston

Well-Known Member
#15
I've been there before.. and here are the rules as I remember them:

6 deck. DAS DOA split 3 except Aces no surrender
Dealer hits soft 17.

now what are the odds of this being pulled off?
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#16
Hang on, what's so bizarre about winning 756 times out of 1440? I mean sure, it's win rate of like 52% instead of the usual 43%, but it's not THAT far off.

Or am I missing something very important?
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#17
Preston said:
I've been there before.. and here are the rules as I remember them:

6 deck. DAS DOA split 3 except Aces no surrender
Dealer hits soft 17.

now what are the odds of this being pulled off?
If you're asking me, probably the same (whatever they are lol) since the only changes between H17 and S17 would be doubling and he doesn't do that anyway.

Which actually means I haven't a clue mathematically speaking!

You've been to this casino - does it really have such a spread?
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#18
EasyRhino said:
Hang on, what's so bizarre about winning 756 times out of 1440? I mean sure, it's win rate of like 52% instead of the usual 43%, but it's not THAT far off.
Or am I missing something very important?
No you're not lol - I'm just guessing. Like u say if he were playing BS he would be expected to win less than 44% of the hands. But he's playing a game with a HA over 12 times worse than regular BJ! So it just seems likely to me he probably played more hands. That's all. It would be interesting to know what a flat bet session would have yielded him.

I mean who knows - maybe he was playing heads up the whole time.
Certainly, stranger things have happened I bet Let's face it, the dealer doesn't lose 10 in a row that often. Thank God :) !
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#19
EasyRhino said:
Hang on, what's so bizarre about winning 756 times out of 1440? I mean sure, it's win rate of like 52% instead of the usual 43%, but it's not THAT far off.

Or am I missing something very important?

Not only is he winning 52% of the time,he's doing it with a no bust strategy that should be killing his win total.
 
#20
I played way more than 60 hands per hour those 4 days. A lot more...with the lack of people at the table it's not so unbelievable. I remember a speedy dealer specifically quoting that the casino likes to see over a hundred hands dealt per hour. Call me a liar but that's what he said...I have no reason to make this up, I was only looking for advice. And for the table limit, check for yourself: Horseshoe Casino * Council Bluffs, IA * 712-329-6000

http://www.harrahs.com/casinos/horseshoe-council-bluffs/hotel-casino/property-home.shtml

$5 Min / $5000 Max

Maybe I just got lucky.
 
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