Question about "Flux" and bankroll

[adventureboy]

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours. Today's session was great--the count got really positive really fast for 4 decks (double deck) in a row. I kept pushing my max bet out and kept drawing blackjacks and winning doubles. Man, if it were only this way all the time!!!

Question: Should I start a new bankroll with $20,000 and refigure my bet sizes, or should I continue to play out 80 hours with the $10,000 figure in mind? The "flux" god has smiled on me, I have no doubt that a frown is comming!

Thanks in advance for you advice!

BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by adventureboy

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours. Today's session was great--the count got really positive really fast for 4 decks (double deck) in a row. I kept pushing my max bet out and kept drawing blackjacks and winning doubles. Man, if it were only this way all the time!!!

Question: Should I start a new bankroll with $20,000 and refigure my bet sizes, or should I continue to play out 80 hours with the $10,000 figure in mind? The "flux" god has smiled on me, I have no doubt that a frown is comming!

Thanks in advance for you advice!

BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

You should not keep playing the 80 hours out as planned. You should re-evaluate what you want to do with your newly increased bankroll.

[shadroch]

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by shadroch

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

Just because he had really good postive variance does not mean he should expect negative variance to even it out.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by adventureboy

I started last week with a $10,000 bankroll and had a goal (as always) of doubling it in about 100 hours of play. I just finished playing today and...bang! I doubled it in just under 20 hours.
BTW--My "total" baknkroll is a little over 50K, I just took 10k as my "Playing" bankroll and tried to double it.

So your BR increased ONLY by 20% so its not time to re-size it yet.

Tell us what your unit size, spread, and max bets are. zg

[EasyRhino]

Also, please explain the difference, in your mind, between your total and playing bankrolls.

[RikaKazak]

Originally Posted by shadroch

If,as you state,you are sure a frown is coming,perhaps now is not the time to increase your bets.

you're kidding right?

something makes me think you're not....and that makes me sad

should you increase your bankroll? of course...and then if you lose down to say $18K, then redo your unit size again.

Pretty much every "good or bad" stretch you should be readjusting your unit size.

[ChefJJ]

In my opinion...you've hit a short-term gain (stating the obvious, I know). Remember, you're expecting somewhere around 0.5 - 1+% long-term advantage on the game. So, if you re-evaluate your bet schedule don't do it based just on those recent gains.

Take your recent 20% gain. If you up your bet levels and experience a 19% loss in the upcoming short-term, does that leave you ahead?

good luck

[adventureboy]

Well, that was a pretty diverse range of answers. As to some of your questions:
1. I play 25 unit with a 1-8 unit spread. However, on true counts of +10 or more I bet 16 units. This is what happened last session and kept winning my big bets for several decks in a row!
2. My total bankroll is just that--my total funds available for blackjack.
My "playing" bankroll is the amount I physically taken out in cash and also the amount that I am looking to double....but I size my bets according to my "total" bankroll. My max bet of 400 means that I have over 100 big bets of cushion for negative flux.

I am now adding the 10K win to my "total" bankroll, bringing me to 60K.

Is the answer to my question simply a matter of how aggresive I want to be? Or am I being foolish to even consider the potential of negative flux?

[21forme]

Another thing to consider is the larger your bets, the more scrutiny you'll receive while you play. Do you play for recreation or to augment your living/lifestyle? It all depends how greedy you are and how much risk you wish to take..