Quote:
Originally Posted by cisco
I do find it hard to believe. Especially when you have a 12 the guy next to you has a 13 and he hits and takes the dealers bust card. That happened to me twice in one game.
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but what makes that card the so-called "dealer's bust card?"
nothing you or anyone else at the table can do will predict with 100% certainty what the next card flipped over will be. not a damn thing.
it is just as likely, in fact more so that the dealer will turn a card that will give a pat total (70% of the time!). this is the absolute first step to making you a better player.
if you play your own hand on these similar "hunches" and not according to basic strategy then you will lose money over the long term at a much faster rate than if you just stick to the facts of the game.
fact 1) there are 13 different cards in the deck(s), without knowledge of the deck composition no player at the table can change the odds of play for any other player at the table based on their hit/stand/double/split/surrender decisions.
the dealer's next card isn't "controlled" by your play since you have no accurate knowledge about what their next card would be. if you're hoping for a dealer bust card (say a 9,10,J,Q,K) then you're holding on to a 5/13 chance, regardless of how the person at 3rd base plays.
and if you play your game agonizing over how someone else at the table is playing then you're ingnoring proven mathematical facts that have been shown over and over again.
acceptance might be a bastard for you on this point, but losing all your money playing hunches will be a worse one.