3:1 on suited blackjacks?

[EasyRhino]

So, I saw a sign that a local casino was occasionally offering a promo where suited blackjacks pay 3 to 1. It begs some interesting questions.

- How much of an advantage would this yield off-the-top? It seems like it would be large.
- At what negative count would the game revert to having a house edge? (Let's assume 8D, H17, DOA, DAS, LS)
- What are the odds that the promo would be burned out if I name the casino on the interweb (I mean, they're advertising it in-house, so it's not mega-secret or anything).

[MGP]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

So, I saw a sign that a local casino was occasionally offering a promo where suited blackjacks pay 3 to 1. It begs some interesting questions.

- How much of an advantage would this yield off-the-top? It seems like it would be large.
- At what negative count would the game revert to having a house edge? (Let's assume 8D, H17, DOA, DAS, LS)
- What are the odds that the promo would be burned out if I name the casino on the interweb (I mean, they're advertising it in-house, so it's not mega-secret or anything).

TD EV: 1.30747531943847%

[shadroch]

I wouldn't worry about mentioning it here. I've become convinced there are no more than a handful of people here that actually play the game.I'm sure it will produce a lot of fascinating posts on the advantages of such a game,but little action.

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I wouldn't worry about mentioning it here. I've become convinced there are no more than a handful of people here that actually play the game.I'm sure it will produce a lot of fascinating posts on the advantages of such a game,but little action.

1. People that play seriously don't post trip reports.
2. People that play seriously rarely talk about play at all.
3. Most people lurk on forums and don't post at all.

So, how would you know

[ihate17]

If you have a casino promotion that gives you a positive game off the top, broadcasting it on the internet can result in the destruction of the game.

The casino makes a decision. They know that for example, Tuesday morning and afternoon is their slowest time, so they come up with a promotion. They do not advertise it on TV or the local papers, they announce it in their mailers to their existing customers. Those existing customers are the people the casino wants to entice in on Tuesday with the bonus. If the broadcast on the internet results in a bunch of unknowns, who play much better blackjack than their usual customers, someone just about always pulls the plug on the promotion. Sometimes it is even killed while it is supposed to be going on.
So I do not share special games. I have had request to share from several people in the past and if I happen to think they might have something to trade, I might share information, but otherwise spreading the word burns the game out in my opinion.

ihate17

[EasyRhino]

That's the concern, and I think your point about how means of advertising is a good one.

The counter-example I can think of would be Siena's (Reno) Happy Hour Blackjack. A really great promotion, that's still running after being blabbed on the boards here. However, that promotion is also structured in such a way as to be fairly well-protected against interlopers (weekend mornings only, max $25 bet I think).

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by MGP

TD EV: 1.30747531943847%

Suited BJs = +1.3%? Sounds high. zg

[MGP]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Suited BJs = +1.3%? Sounds high. zg

I assumed that the suited BJ always won. If it doesn't then I get:

TD EV 3:1 hand must win: 1.14358443558594%

[EasyRhino]

I assume the suited BJ is otherwise like a regular one, in that it wins against all but a dealer BJ. I honestly haven't inquired.

And remember, it's three to one... the 1.3% number seems reasonable, if extrapolating from the effects of 1:1 and suited 2:1 payouts from wizardofodds.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by EasyRhino

I assume the suited BJ is otherwise like a regular one, in that it wins against all but a dealer BJ. I honestly haven't inquired.

And remember, it's three to one... the 1.3% number seems reasonable, if extrapolating from the effects of 1:1 and suited 2:1 payouts from wizardofodds.

Without simming it, I get prob of suited BJ about 1.19%. Prob of pushing BJ about 4.6% so prob of untied (winning suited BJ)=1.13%.

So you're picking up an extra 1.5 units 1.13% of the time. So if the house edge is -.58% your picking up an extra 1.7 % for an overall edge of -0.58+1.7=1.12%. More exactly, I actually get 1.13%.

So pretty close to MGP's sim but not as high as the 1.3% like Zen intuitively thought.

So I would assume around a TC-2 the game might revert to about even.

So does one wong out in a positive expectation game lol? Bet table max off the top lol? How greedy u gonna get ?