Amatuer hitting the tables tomorrow.

[aarono2690]

Hey guys,

This will be my 4th time playing blackjack in a casino setting. I've studied card counting and practiced it (I by no means have even a foothold on it though), and I plan to bring a "hit-stand" strategy chart (is it best to follow it religously or use it as a general guide?) with me so I can play by the book.

I have a few questions though. I plan on bringing roughly $70-100 dollars to the $3 minimum table (the smallest they have). Any particular betting strategy I should follow with such a small amount of chips?

[MartyAce]

You should follow that basic strategy card to the T. It's not there to be just as a guideline or to look like you know nothing.

Basic strategy is based on the mathematics of the game. it has been tested and refined through computer simulations. For every hand you get there is a CORRECT way to play the hand. When you follow it you will reduce the house edge on you greatly.

I apologize if this information is already apparent to you, but from the sound of it, you don't have too much experience with it.

As far as betting system or strategy goes, there is none, unless you are counting cards, but I'm putting a question mark by this one for a few reasons:

Even though you have studied card counting and practiced it (to what extent I do not know). It would be in your best interest maybe to just count on the side and always bet your minimum just to play at this point and get an idea of how hard it can be to count in a casino environment.

I say this because your number one priority should be to play perfect basic strategy. This has to be engrained into your memory to the point of where you shouldn't have to think about it anymore, and certainly not look at a card.

That would be my advice to a player such as you just still starting out. I mean if you have confidence in what you are doing with counting, then go ahead and raise your bets slightly, but now your getting into deck estimation, figuring out your true count (depending on your system), etc. It can be a lot of thinking to do and you may find yourself completely lost at a point in the game when you have one of the more harder basic strategy decisions, trying to count, and the dealer and other players are getting annoyed with you taking so long.

That would be my advice to you. Let me know how your trip goes and I'll be happy to respond with some comments or answer questions.

[aarono2690]

Yeah I wasn't going to try to perfectly count, just keep a rough estimate of how many -1 and +1 cards have gone through.

I was thinking this should be a rough betting guideline:

Go to a table with a fresh shoe.

Bet minimum ($3).

If I win go to $4. If I lose stay at $3.

If I win go to $5. If I lose continue at $3.

When I get to $7 I will start over from $3 and repeat the process until I hit $8. Once 8 is hit I'll repeat until I get to 9 and keep increasing by one.


This will try to limit crazy betting (seeing I have a limited bank roll), keep my profit in check, and keep my money in check during a losing streak.

[aarono2690]

Are there any times you don't use the basic strategy? For instance if you had 16 and the dealer had 8. The book says to hit, but say you had a hunch would you stand?

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by aarono2690

Are there any times you don't use the basic strategy?

NO!

If there was a word there you don't understand let me know

Learn what expected value means!

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by aarono2690

Yeah I wasn't going to try to perfectly count, just keep a rough estimate of how many -1 and +1 cards have gone through.

I was thinking this should be a rough betting guideline:

Go to a table with a fresh shoe.

Bet minimum ($3).

If I win go to $4. If I lose stay at $3.

If I win go to $5. If I lose continue at $3.

When I get to $7 I will start over from $3 and repeat the process until I hit $8. Once 8 is hit I'll repeat until I get to 9 and keep increasing by one.


This will try to limit crazy betting (seeing I have a limited bank roll), keep my profit in check, and keep my money in check during a losing streak.

Sounds like you would just be betting a positive progression modified martingdale kind of thing.

I would think you would have less risk to your bankroll by flat-betting. At the expense of less profit. So pick which u like better.

With $100 u could last for hours at a full table in a 6 deck game with less than a 10% chance of losing your $100 if u flat-bet. Win a $6 bet every couple hours and u could play (almost) indefinitely.

[aarono2690]

Just keep betting minimum when I suspect the count is good? If I somehow tally up a negative in my head don't play then?

[EasyRhino]

If not counting, and armed with $100, I'd recommend $3 or $5 bets, and you could probably play for quite a while.

The betting system you're proposing is, bluntly, gibberish. You don't raise or lower bets based on your win/loss history, you raise them based on the count.

... what counting system have you been practicing, is it a legitimate one?

Anyway, here's the rough order of which moves will give you the most "bang for your buck" at blackjack, in descending order of importance:

1) Follow basic strategy perfectly.
2) Use a counting system to determine when to place "big" vs. "small" bets
3) Implement a proportional bet spread
4) Modify your play strategy using index plays that dependi on the count

So, if you find yourself at the casino, and basic strategy is hard, then just work on that, don't worry about it.

If BS is easy, then go on to step 2. Maybe have your "big bet" as $5 or $6. I wouldn't worry about steps 3 or 4 at all tomorrow.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by aarono2690

Just keep betting minimum when I suspect the count is good? If I somehow tally up a negative in my head don't play then?

Well your proposed betting scheme of "If I win, bet this, if I lose bet this" made me think you weren't really card-counting or you would say "Bet this at this count or this at this other count". If you're counting, you don't change your bet because you won or lost a hand, you change it because the count changed.

And, really, stuff like "suspecting a good count" doesn't fill me with confidence. But if u suspect a + count and it gives you confidence to raise your bet a buck or two, go ahead. But don't delude yourself you're being an advantage player.

Or, wait until you suspect (I love this suspecting stuff) a really good count, bet $6 and, if you win, you've overcome your expected loss of 3 hours of play.

Really a 33 unit bankroll just isn't the greatest to be counting with IMHO!

It's all about risk vs reward. If u wanna break even, you can play for hours. If u wanna win $500 in the same amount of time, you'll lose your $100 often. Common sense. Your money, your choice.

For guys like you, new to the game, I just like to see you have fun, get a feel for the game, get your hours in and not lose your money all the time so you don't end up hating the game.

[WumpieJr]

Originally Posted by aarono2690

Are there any times you don't use the basic strategy? For instance if you had 16 and the dealer had 8. The book says to hit, but say you had a hunch would you stand?

No one has addressed this directly so I will. The reason that people are reacting so negatively to this proposition (and rightly so) is that hunches in blackjack have *zero* validity. There is no way that anyone can predict what card is going to fall in the long term. Play the plays that are correct based on percentage to win/lose/etc. That is basic strategy. Don't deviate from it unless you are counting. Even if BS loses you the hand when you had a "hunch" that it might be wrong, remember that if you acted on the next hundred hunches, you'd end up losing money on them. So stick to BS!

Also, rather than try to keep a general sense of the count (which is useless to actual counters), try to keep track of the count for real. Since you're only practicing, if you lose track of the count, restart from zero. See how long you can go without losing track. Try to extend that to a whole half shoe. Then a whole shoe.

It may make sense to change your bet just to give yourself some other distraction and make it more realistic. But any bet alteration you make that isn't based on the count will just be random.