The ultimate KO spreadsheet

[21forme]

With the recent threads about KO and TKO, and a number of PMs back and forth between myself and Mimosine, I put together a little spreadsheet (my first time using Excel, so be gentle) customized for KO the way I play it.

This is for 6D with the IRC shifted to -3 (key count +15, pivot point (max bet and insurance) +20) using the "fab fives" strategy in the KO book.

Each cell contains the calculated TC. Note how it changes based on the number of decks remaining. I've highlighted the TC in a number of cells and marked the wong out and start of bet ramp points. To keep the sheet a small size, I did not include every point in the RC, but put in every 3, and added additional key points.

One can see how "standard" KO misses +EV opportunities early in the shoe, and the points when bets should be increased.) The numbers show how the oft-mentioned "KO overstates advantage late in the shoe" is not really correct. With 2 decks remaining, at the key count of 15, the TC = 1. Only at 1 deck remaining (how often does that happen?) is there a -EV at RC=15. Of note, late in the shoe, the TC increases very quickly with each point of the RC.

Feel free to modify this for your own playing conditions.
The formula I used to for the calculations is
TC = (RC-IRC-(4*#deckplayed))/#decksremain.

[Mimosine]

looks good.

i only avoided the Fab 5's because i might play some DD soon and for me the regular implementation works better for more than 1 game. to make a fab 5's for DD you would have to rework the IRC and keycount. though the simplicity of fab 5s for 6D is pretty darn great.

[21forme]

There are no 2 deck games here, so it's not an issue for me. If and when I ever play one, I'll have to reevaluate things, including the counting system I use...

[golfnut101]

why the difference of 18 between IRC(-3) and KC(15) for 6d ? I thought it had to be 16 for any adjustments ?

thnx
good work by the way

[21forme]

The KO authors rounded the key numbers to multiples of 5s to make it easier to remember. IIRC, they did a sim that showed the difference between the rounding of fab fives and the theoretical numbers was something like 0.01%

[Izatnice]

I have read the section multiple times but still am a little confused....The Fab 5 's is used for 6 deck shoes am i correct? The second question is how do i use this i am a newbie to Shoes i usually play 1-2 decks. Want to count 6 decks if i can figure it out but hate the negative numbers.....Thanks again

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by Izatnice

I have read the section multiple times but still am a little confused....The Fab 5 's is used for 6 deck shoes am i correct? The second question is how do i use this i am a newbie to Shoes i usually play 1-2 decks. Want to count 6 decks if i can figure it out but hate the negative numbers.....Thanks again

Fab 5s, from my (multiple) readings is for 6D shoe ONLY.

I forget all the correct plays, someone else can help you, but in general start at IRC = -3 (then you'll only be in negative territory for a little while).

at 15 start ramping bets (and i think you stand on 16v10), at 20 take insurance and make all other index plays.

for wonging out, i think you wong out at -5 after one deck or 0 after two decks. someone else can clarify these points - but again it is only for 6D.

[21forme]

Mimosine is correct. The wong-out point at 3 decks is +5.

If you are serious about using KO, spend the $13 on the book!