The First Three Cards n° 3
Hello everybody
Today, I want to talk in more details about percentages.
You agree or disagree?
1. Short term results are meaningless.
2. Whichever game you playing at will have "lost hands/winner hands balance"
let's say you have played 1000 hands; (I still call that "short term")
three possibilities
the balance is in your favour ex: you won 525 bets dealer won 475 (difference +50)
the balance is in his favour ex: you won 480 bets dealer won 520
(difference -40)
the balance is Zero ex: you won 500 bets, so did the dealer (difference 0)
Testimonial stating. I have won 400$ after 20 minutes of playing might not be false ones
they just had a very positive balance on a very short period of time.
for example, they played a constant bet of 20$, played 70 hands. luckily, the win/loss balance reached 45 wins against 25 loss (+20) and they made 400 bucks.
Do you believe they proved something?
You can play at constant bet, but unless you have a clearly identified fair casino that allows the player to surrender, with the house edge to your advantage, you will never make money that way. I admire ken smith paying 10 days at constant bet but as it puts it himself, that is "serving a boring sentence".
Overall result (10$ constant bet) for 2689 hands was a loss of $200. To me, that means that up until now, that particular casino has the following advantage:
If mr. smith lost 200$ betting constantly 10$, that means that is win/loss balance is -20
If he played 2689 hands the house's edge is 20*100/2689 = -0.744% (to the casino's advantage, of course). I wouldn't declare that that this particular casino "IS FAIR" yet. I wont say the opposite either.
I have A question for ken smith when he states:
"The expected win of that action is 2689 * $10 * 0.11% = $29.58."
I want to ask you this. Where did you pick up that 0.11 factor.
1. Does the casino claim that these are the odds?
2. Do they play a particular set of rules that according to your knowledge tunrs out to have these odds.
I'm very curious to read your answer?
and for everybody
do you agree or disagree?
the only way to beat a casino (blackjack) is to vary you bets.
increase them when the last hand you played was at the house's advantage.
decrease them them when in the opposite situation.
What does a card counter do when his count is very much positive.
He will increase hit bet. Won't he?
Card counters like the high value cards. Yes and what they love most is blackjack. so do I.
Let me prove to you that card counters are using the three first card theory that I'm trying to develop here without knowing they do.
YOU ONLY GET A BLACKJACK INSIDE THESE FIRST THREE CARDS. if the hand requires a forth, a fifth or more cards to get to it's final result, that means there were no blackjack. you agree ?. and now and again a particular hand might be piled up with aces and tens coming after the first three cards. unfortunaly, they are useless aces and tens.
had they landed inside the F.T.C (first three cards, from now on), they had "POSSILY-NOT ALWAYS" formed a blackjack.
What does the card counter (C.C. from now on) think about this following situation?
He get 10-6 he dealer get's 11. (Some of you know that this is the worst situation of all).
what does he think?
1. he's very happy, after all he had two of these high value cards
2. just happy, not to happy
3. declare that he is unlucky today. he will surely have that feeling
if the next 11-10-6 ticket lands as 16 against 11 three times in a row
the professionnel C.C., in my opinion should be happy, no to happy.
he's done a good job, because his counting was favorable to him and he got these high value cards sometime ending in a blackjack format.
througt the F.T.C. I can tell the card counter that he should be 22% happy.
he knows he has done a good job, but F.T.C can tell him excacly how good
(a precise percentage) was his job.
now let's suppose that the dealer gave
11-10 (blackjack) dealer gets 6
the C.C. was counting cards waiting for that to happen. He did it!
and I know (I assume he's playing varying his bets), he will reset his bet
to the minimum. He goes for a new cycle of varying bets till his count is once again favorable to him.
If he does that, he's wrong, he has been only 22% efficient and should
lower his bet accordingly. if he was betting 18, for exmple, his next bet shoud be 18 - 18*22/100, rounded to 15 and not be to happy with this blackjack. that blackjack is categorised with FTC. worst of all blackjack.
ok, finished for today
For those you are still with me (thanks to you) I will end this post with an exercice for you.
You get "9-8" the dealer get's "2"
is that
very good new?
good new ?
no knew?
bad news?
answer in my next post. if you stick with me, you might have to read my previous post to answer that question. the answer is quite interesting (to my opinion, at least).
best regards
ben
Hello everybody
Today, I want to talk in more details about percentages.
You agree or disagree?
1. Short term results are meaningless.
2. Whichever game you playing at will have "lost hands/winner hands balance"
let's say you have played 1000 hands; (I still call that "short term")
three possibilities
the balance is in your favour ex: you won 525 bets dealer won 475 (difference +50)
the balance is in his favour ex: you won 480 bets dealer won 520
(difference -40)
the balance is Zero ex: you won 500 bets, so did the dealer (difference 0)
Testimonial stating. I have won 400$ after 20 minutes of playing might not be false ones
they just had a very positive balance on a very short period of time.
for example, they played a constant bet of 20$, played 70 hands. luckily, the win/loss balance reached 45 wins against 25 loss (+20) and they made 400 bucks.
Do you believe they proved something?
You can play at constant bet, but unless you have a clearly identified fair casino that allows the player to surrender, with the house edge to your advantage, you will never make money that way. I admire ken smith paying 10 days at constant bet but as it puts it himself, that is "serving a boring sentence".
Overall result (10$ constant bet) for 2689 hands was a loss of $200. To me, that means that up until now, that particular casino has the following advantage:
If mr. smith lost 200$ betting constantly 10$, that means that is win/loss balance is -20
If he played 2689 hands the house's edge is 20*100/2689 = -0.744% (to the casino's advantage, of course). I wouldn't declare that that this particular casino "IS FAIR" yet. I wont say the opposite either.
I have A question for ken smith when he states:
"The expected win of that action is 2689 * $10 * 0.11% = $29.58."
I want to ask you this. Where did you pick up that 0.11 factor.
1. Does the casino claim that these are the odds?
2. Do they play a particular set of rules that according to your knowledge tunrs out to have these odds.
I'm very curious to read your answer?
and for everybody
do you agree or disagree?
the only way to beat a casino (blackjack) is to vary you bets.
increase them when the last hand you played was at the house's advantage.
decrease them them when in the opposite situation.
What does a card counter do when his count is very much positive.
He will increase hit bet. Won't he?
Card counters like the high value cards. Yes and what they love most is blackjack. so do I.
Let me prove to you that card counters are using the three first card theory that I'm trying to develop here without knowing they do.
YOU ONLY GET A BLACKJACK INSIDE THESE FIRST THREE CARDS. if the hand requires a forth, a fifth or more cards to get to it's final result, that means there were no blackjack. you agree ?. and now and again a particular hand might be piled up with aces and tens coming after the first three cards. unfortunaly, they are useless aces and tens.
had they landed inside the F.T.C (first three cards, from now on), they had "POSSILY-NOT ALWAYS" formed a blackjack.
What does the card counter (C.C. from now on) think about this following situation?
He get 10-6 he dealer get's 11. (Some of you know that this is the worst situation of all).
what does he think?
1. he's very happy, after all he had two of these high value cards
2. just happy, not to happy
3. declare that he is unlucky today. he will surely have that feeling
if the next 11-10-6 ticket lands as 16 against 11 three times in a row
the professionnel C.C., in my opinion should be happy, no to happy.
he's done a good job, because his counting was favorable to him and he got these high value cards sometime ending in a blackjack format.
througt the F.T.C. I can tell the card counter that he should be 22% happy.
he knows he has done a good job, but F.T.C can tell him excacly how good
(a precise percentage) was his job.
now let's suppose that the dealer gave
11-10 (blackjack) dealer gets 6
the C.C. was counting cards waiting for that to happen. He did it!
and I know (I assume he's playing varying his bets), he will reset his bet
to the minimum. He goes for a new cycle of varying bets till his count is once again favorable to him.
If he does that, he's wrong, he has been only 22% efficient and should
lower his bet accordingly. if he was betting 18, for exmple, his next bet shoud be 18 - 18*22/100, rounded to 15 and not be to happy with this blackjack. that blackjack is categorised with FTC. worst of all blackjack.
ok, finished for today
For those you are still with me (thanks to you) I will end this post with an exercice for you.
You get "9-8" the dealer get's "2"
is that
very good new?
good new ?
no knew?
bad news?
answer in my next post. if you stick with me, you might have to read my previous post to answer that question. the answer is quite interesting (to my opinion, at least).
best regards
ben