Hole Card Play Spanish 21

[Brock Windsor]

I have been searching all over to try and get a hole card basic strategy for Spanish 21. If the dealer exposes his hole card in BJ I use Shackleford's (wizard of odds) appendix 16. http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix16.html
Occasionally however I find a hole carding dealer on Spanish 21 and want to be able to take FULL advantage. The beauty of Spanish 21 hole carding is you can make more extreme plays (like hitting 17) without drawing any heat and the rules (Double any number cards, Double Down rescue, surrender) in my opinion would make it more advantageous to hole card Spanish 21 than regular BJ. Right now I follow Shacklefords appendix 16 with a few alterations: Surrender everything except 11 to a dealer 20. Double 10&11 vs 17 (and rescue it if I lose). Surrender 15,16 and 17 to a dealer 19. I think this captures the bulk of the advantage but Im sure there are a few plays where I am not aggressive enough and a few where I am too aggressive. Any advice/suggestions on obvious omissions is appreciated. I don't think there is any software that can test it, but someone with an astute knowledge of probability could likely help my edge a bit. The casino I play has a bunch of new hires starting this week, they're usually my best source of hole carders so some good information sooner is better than perfect information later.
Thanks and what a great site! Here are the SP21 rules I play:
A player 21 always wins.
Player blackjack beats dealer blackjack.
Player may double on any number of cards.
Player may hit and double down after splitting aces.
Player may surrender half of total bet after doubling down (known as "double down rescue.")
A five-card 21 pays 3 to 2, a six-card 21 pays 2 to 1, a seven or more card 21 pays 3 to 1. However the bonuses are not paid if the player doubled.
A 6-7-8 or 7-7-7 of mixed suits pays 3:2, of the same suit pays 2:1, and of spades pays 3:1.
Suited 7-7-7 when the dealer has a seven face up pays $1000 for bets of $5-$24 and $5000 for bets of $25 or over. In addition, all other players receive a $50 "envy bonus." This rule does not apply after splitting.
Dealer stands on a soft 17.
8 Spanish decks are used. (No 10's)
Late surrender on the initial two cards.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

Right now I follow Shacklefords appendix 16 with a few alterations: Surrender everything except 11 to a dealer 20. Double 10&11 vs 17 (and rescue it if I lose). Surrender 15,16 and 17 to a dealer 19. I think this captures the bulk of the advantage but Im sure there are a few plays where I am not aggressive enough and a few where I am too aggressive. Any advice/suggestions on obvious omissions is appreciated.

Wish I could help you. Have no idea what expected values are in SP21. Sounds like more than a few alterations. Not that they're wrong.

Personally, in the absence of sure and certain knowledge, or close to it lol, I tend to not do it.

I mean, after all, even with more tens, the Wiz table never suggests surrender.

[Brock Windsor]

I am 99% confident the Wizards appendix 16 table does not account for the possibility of surrender. If you've got say a 19vs20 your expectancy hitting is around -85%. Anything below -50% should surrender. Unfortunately the casinos I play don't offer surrender on Blackjack games. Only on SP21, hence my perceived increase in expected value hole carding SP21 tables.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

I am 99% confident the Wizards appendix 16 table does not account for the possibility of surrender. If you've got say a 19vs20 your expectancy hitting is around -85%. Anything below -50% should surrender. Unfortunately the casinos I play don't offer surrender on Blackjack games. Only on SP21, hence my perceived increase in expected value hole carding SP21 tables.

Forget the value of surrendering a 19 to a dealer 20 in either game in my opinion it is just too obvious that someone might start watching you closer than you wish. Even with hole card knowledge you have to take your lumps on certain hands but you still maintain a great advantage.

ihate17

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

I am 99% confident the Wizards appendix 16 table does not account for the possibility of surrender. If you've got say a 19vs20 your expectancy hitting is around -85%. Anything below -50% should surrender. Unfortunately the casinos I play don't offer surrender on Blackjack games. Only on SP21, hence my perceived increase in expected value hole carding SP21 tables.

I think you're right about the Wiz table - I was just wondering about the more marginal hands like 12 vs 20 or 19 etc especially with increased 21 payoffs for multi-card hands, etc.

But I have no idea so good question and good luck!

[MGP]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I think you're right about the Wiz table - I was just wondering about the more marginal hands like 12 vs 20 or 19 etc especially with increased 21 payoffs for multi-card hands, etc.

But I have no idea so good question and good luck!

His hole card table doesn't include surrender which you can tell because not even a single standard surrender is present and it's not listed in the key. The isn't relevant for Spanish 21 anyways because it's not taking into account that a player 21 always wins and multicard bonuses are present.

[Brock Windsor]

Being able to double any number of cards and rescue your double downs is the big offensive one I want. Get double the table max out there when you know the dealer has 16 under...sweet. Still haven't found anyone with the time or talent to put this together so will keep playing as I have for now. The math is over my head but Im learning as I research and looking into some new software. I've got SPSS15 but haven't taken stats since 2nd year economics, will have to refresh myself to find out if the program is even useful for something like this. Scoped out the new dealers, no hole carders yet but a couple of real plugs. Pushing/paying busted hands, doubling down for more, insuring for more. The Pit lady really tore into one poor guy that was trying to pay a 22 but the player kept insisting she had busted and to take her money. They pulled him after that hand and degraded him for his lack of intelligence right there in the pit but hopefully they'll let him back. People get nervous first day on the job, then again we're all there to prey on them so guess the casinos gotta be tough.
BW

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

The math is over my head but Im learning as I research and looking into some new software. I've got SPSS15 but haven't taken stats since 2nd year economics, will have to refresh myself to find out if the program is even useful for something like this.BW

I've heard Mathematica software could do this but really don't know what is involved.

MGP - What software do u use to produce those EXTREMELY ACCURATE CA runs?

[MGP]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I've heard Mathematica software could do this but really don't know what is involved.

MGP - What software do u use to produce those EXTREMELY ACCURATE CA runs?

LOL - thanks, I use VB.Net. I started with Excel which works ok but is much slower. I converted to VB.Net due to both speed and to overcome the memory restrictions in VBA. My CA does handle Spanish21 but not holecarding.

[lvhcm]

I have the exact strategy authored by James Grosjean. Would you like it?