novice- negtive shoe runs?

[sinomonis]

How many negative shoes should I expect before getting a positive count.I assumed,being a novice that every few shoes would automatically give me a positive count?

Any feedback about your runs with negative/positive counts would be appreciated.

[Sonny]

In general about 1 out of 5 shoes gets positive. Roughly 25% of the hands you see will be a TC+1 or better. That means you will be at a disadvantage 75% of the time. There will be times when you play (or watch) for over an hour and never see a profitable count. On the other hand, there will be times when you see 2-3 hot shoes in a row. You never know. It just takes patience.

-Sonny-

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Sonny

In general about 1 out of 5 shoes gets positive.
-Sonny-

Really?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Really?

I believe that was one of Renzey's contributions. I seem to recall reading it in one of his articles, but I can't seem to find it right now.

-Sonny-

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Sonny

I believe that was one of Renzey's contributions. I seem to recall reading it in one of his articles, but I can't seem to find it right now.

-Sonny-

i believe Renzey alludes to the 1 out of 5 shoes in Blackjack BlueBook II

anyway here is a quote from an article that alludes to Renzey's ace/ten front count that mentions the frequency of posiitve 'playable' shoes:

"Now here's the bad news. On only about 25% of your shoes will your front count be "36" or lower. That means 75% of the time you'll still have a disadvantage heading into the heart of the shoe. If you play every shoe all the way through, you'll lose money on most of them. Simply raising your bets on one shoe out of four will only be enough to put you just about dead even with the house. But to play with an edge, YOU MUST WALK AWAY FROM EVERY FRONT COUNT OF "40" OR MORE! . Yes, this means you'll very likely walk away from more shoes that with Blackjack card counting. By doing that, a 1 to 6 betting spread will gain you a quarter percent overall edge using the Ace/10 Front Count."

see link:
http://anmore2003.tripod.com/BeyondB...ategy/id15.htm

perhaps Mr. Renzey will read this and comment......

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Really?

Yes. Its beter in 2D games. zg

[ChefJJ]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Really?

As a player who rarely "wongs" in or out (but I'm not afraid to use timed bathroom breaks or cell phone calls), I would attest to that. A lot of shoes I never get above making my base bet. That's where BS is extremely important to keep you in it or get you ahead...but that's common knowledge obviously.

good luck

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by ScottH

Really?

it makes sense when you think about it from the perspective of the relatively huge bet spread 1:12 (for play all) or more one needs to apply to beat the shoe game .

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Yes. Its beter in 2D games. zg

Ok. Almost all of my play has been with 2D games so that is why I thought 1 in 5 was too low.

[Thunder]

I usually always have positive counts because I'm thinking positively while counting