How to bet with a replenishable bankroll?

[Mimosine]

After the dent my BR took in Vegas i'm fully prepared to lose the remainder of my dwindling BR over the next few months. Fall however brings new opportunities.

If you were going to have a replensihable bankroll of $10k, built up from $0 at a rate of $1k per month, after how many months, or at what %age of the 10k in the bank can you start betting as if you actually had the 10k?

Having only $1000 seems too small to max bet at the $100 level (only 10 max bets), but what is the correct amount of money to have to bet at this level? 30 max bets?

is it a really bad idea to bet on a bankroll that you don't have, but one day will? my sense is that it is not a bad idea, based on advice seen in earlier threads, but i've never seen a definite answer. the BR will be true in every sense - it will be only for BJ, but i do want to keep my ROR low, and 10k seems to be the right level to make that happen. (or at least 5k).

thanks in advance. -M.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Mimosine

Having only $1000 seems too small to max bet at the $100 level (only 10 max bets), but what is the correct amount of money to have to bet at this level? 30 max bets?

There has been quite a bit of research done on the Replenishable Bankroll concept. Many formulas have been created and debated, and various approaches have been analyzed. In my opinion it has been overanalyzed to death (this coming from the guy who loves to play with formulas! )

If it were me, I would use a very simple approach. Basically you have two options:

1) You can begin playing immediately with your first $1k and play at low stakes, gradually increasing your stakes as your bankroll grows. This approach will get you in action the soonest but your initial EV probably won’t be worthwhile. On the other hand, if you hit some moderately positive variance you might earn enough to start playing the big money early.

2) You can save up your money for a few months until you have enough to make your first trip using your full spread (as though you had the $10k already). You could use the trip ROR formula to determine how much $$$ you need before you can make your first trip. It will depend on how many hours you are planning to play. If you play short sessions then you could start playing with a smaller bankroll and still be relatively safe. If you prefer marathon sessions then you will want a decent wad of cash to make sure you don't tap out early. If you lose your first session bankroll then you will have to wait a few more months until you save up another one.

I like the second approach better, but either approach is justifiable.

Originally Posted by Mimosine

is it a really bad idea to bet on a bankroll that you don't have, but one day will?

It’s not a bad idea at all. It is a valid approach to playing BJ and it will get you playing sooner, which means more EV. I don’t play that way but I know of several successful players that do (or did at one point). As long as the money is guaranteed to come in later you can use this approach.

-Sonny-

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes, I'm a trip-RoR guy. This is only a good idea if you have a strong non-BJ income. One of the reasons why is if you make $70/hr in your day job, you are going to get frustrated playing for less than that at a casino, especially if you aren't particularly fond of the casino environment and the things you have to endure as an AP.

[21forme]

Originally Posted by Sonny

2) You can save up your money for a few months until you have enough to make your first trip using your full spread (as though you had the $10k already). You could use the trip ROR formula to determine how much $$$ you need before you can make your first trip. It will depend on how many hours you are planning to play. If you play short sessions then you could start playing with a smaller bankroll and still be relatively safe. If you prefer marathon sessions then you will want a decent wad of cash to make sure you don't tap out early. If you lose your first session bankroll then you will have to wait a few more months until you save up another one.
-Sonny-

Please explain that ROR calculator to me. Are the default Win rate and SD what should be used there? Also, how can it determine an ROR without knowing your bet spread? Is it assuming only 1 unit bets?

[sagefr0g]

how i've worked it has been:

started with a small trip bankroll $300
got lucky and it just kept building.
but i had the philosophy in mind that if any particular session wiped out a trip bankroll that i'd replace it with earnings from my work. (only had to do this three times in two years)
but the caveate to the use of the replenishing was that i'd repay my work earnings money back once my blackjack play regained double that money.
i never spend any of my blackjack earnings, just keep building them.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by 21forme

Please explain that ROR calculator to me.

Sure thing. The Bankroll is the number of units you have as your bankroll (I’m sure you knew that but I’m just being thorough ).

Win Rate is your hourly EV. It is the number of units you expect to win each hour. It will be based on your playing style and bet ramp.

Std. Dev. is your hourly standard deviation (SD). It describes what sort of fluctuations you should expect while playing. This is also based on your bet ramp.

Hands Played is the number of hands you are planning to play during the trip. If you are Wonging then do not include the hands you watch but do not play.

You can use the defaults if you want to get a general idea, but ideally you should input your personal EV and SD from a simulator program.

[zengrifter]

Based on 1000 per month, I would start out betting like I had 3000, then when I did have 3000 I would bet like I had 6000 and then when I had 6000 I would bet like 10,000. zg

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Based on 1000 per month, I would start out betting like I had 3000, then when I did have 3000 I would bet like I had 6000 and then when I had 6000 I would bet like 10,000. zg

Is there any reason you first would bet as if triple your bankroll, then double and then only 2/3rds?

Would u double your unit when u had 3000 playing to 6000?

Just curious.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Mimosine

Having only $1000 seems too small to max bet at the $100 level (only 10 max bets), but what is the correct amount of money to have to bet at this level? 30 max bets?

I don't think there are any right and wrong answers - there is no correct amount. You have to figure what game with what rules and what penetration you will be playing for how long at what spread at what count and see if you are comfortable with that ROR.

And if u play 2 different games, do it for that game too. Do it for the same game at different levels of penetration.

For stuff like this I couldn't agree more with sonny's advice

"You can use the defaults if you want to get a general idea, but ideally you should input your personal EV and SD from a simulator program.".

You want to bet $100 max? Spend one bet on some software. I guarantee u won't regret it.

[zengrifter]

Snyder says play like you have the whole 10k, betting 1/4Kelly. And be prepared
for wiping out on a few months and having to wait for the installment. zg