confused on this index play for KO

[p8ntballsk8r]

when the count is higher than the key count it says to stay on a 16 vs dealer 10. I'm unsure as to why you would do this because if there is a surplus in 10's then the dealer is just as likely to have a 10 in the hole as your next card to be a 10.

Similarly any card other than a 6 that would bust your 16 would also make a pat hand for the dealer.

I'm confused why when you have bigger bets out and receive a 16 v 10 it's a stay and pray the dealer has a 2,3,4,5,6 in the hole.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by p8ntballsk8r

when the count is higher than the key count it says to stay on a 16 vs dealer 10. I'm unsure as to why you would do this because if there is a surplus in 10's then the dealer is just as likely to have a 10 in the hole as your next card to be a 10.

Similarly any card other than a 6 that would bust your 16 would also make a pat hand for the dealer.

I'm confused why when you have bigger bets out and receive a 16 v 10 it's a stay and pray the dealer has a 2,3,4,5,6 in the hole.

go look up the math for it. at this count, you will lose more hitting than standing. a high count doesn't only mean the dealer will "have a 10 in the hole" it means the dealer (and you) will bust more often, hence you stand at this count, with math & statistics on your side that you will win more, by busting less with 16v10.

think about the rules of BJ, and then think about the rules that the dealer MUST follow... it has nothing to do with what the dealer's hole card might be. no decision in BJ does.

[WABJ11]

Can you give a link to the chart your referring to?

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by p8ntballsk8r

when the count is higher than the key count it says to stay on a 16 vs dealer 10. I'm unsure as to why you would do this because if there is a surplus in 10's then the dealer is just as likely to have a 10 in the hole as your next card to be a 10.

Similarly any card other than a 6 that would bust your 16 would also make a pat hand for the dealer.

I'm confused why when you have bigger bets out and receive a 16 v 10 it's a stay and pray the dealer has a 2,3,4,5,6 in the hole.

Sometimes it's just an act of faith

You don't have to know why, just believe there is a God who says do it!

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by WABJ11

Can you give a link to the chart your referring to?

no. maybe check an index in BlackJackAttack. I haven't read the entire tome yet, but it might be in there.

1) Do you understand how BS was generated? If yes, then proceed to question 2, if no then learn how BS was figured out. Wikipedia might have an explaination.

2) Index plays can be generated in a similar way to how BS was generated, by varrying the composition of the deck that is being dealt, the probability and pay table changes drastically on hit/stand/double/split decisions. The most important 14-18 or so index plays add about 2% in expectation. That is how important and significant they are!

If you understand why you should take insurance at TC = +3 (hi/lo), or RC = +3 (KO), then it takes a little bit of a leap in understanding to derive and convince yourself that index plays work, like 16v10.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Sometimes it's just an act of faith

You don't have to know why, just believe there is a God who says do it!

almost, or if you're so inclined you can do some research, figure out who came up with the I18, read about how they solved the problem, or even go and read about how much edge they give your game and of these things should convince you without having to defer to faith.

though there is nothing wrong with faith if that is what it takes for you to believe. but you damn well better believe it when your TC = 3 and the dealer has an A up, etc etc...