Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #1  
Old April 30th, 2007, 07:02 PM
D.G. D.G. is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5
Default Frequency of losing x times in a row per 100,000 hands

Hello. Where can I find out how many times I will lose 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11,12,13,14,15 hands in a row per 10,000 hands, and per 100,000 hands?

I have scoured the web looking for this info, and I'm at a loss.

I would GREATLY appreciate any help.
  #2  
Old May 1st, 2007, 01:58 AM
Kasi Kasi is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,119
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.G. View Post
Hello. Where can I find out how many times I will lose 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11,12,13,14,15 hands in a row per 10,000 hands, and per 100,000 hands?

I have scoured the web looking for this info, and I'm at a loss.

I would GREATLY appreciate any help.
To get u started, if it were a coin toss, you'd lose x times in a row 0.5 to the x power.

Poke around wizardofodds.com. U'll find it.
  #3  
Old May 1st, 2007, 09:13 AM
Sonny's Avatar
Sonny Sonny is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 4,748
Default

You can also get the streak percentages for various games (number of decks, rules, etc.) here:

http://www.bjstats.com/bjsc.asp

In the "Table" pulldown menu select "Streaks - Hands In A Row"

-Sonny-
  #4  
Old May 1st, 2007, 09:57 PM
D.G. D.G. is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
You can also get the streak percentages for various games (number of decks, rules, etc.) here:

http://www.bjstats.com/bjsc.asp

In the "Table" pulldown menu select "Streaks - Hands In A Row"

-Sonny-

Awesome, Sonny. That's EXACTLY what I was looking for. I only have one question, though. How do I find out how many total hands were played in this sim? That way, I will know how often you will get a streak of x per 10,000 hands, 100,000 hands, ect...
  #5  
Old May 1st, 2007, 10:38 PM
Sonny's Avatar
Sonny Sonny is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 4,748
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.G. View Post
How do I find out how many total hands were played in this sim? That way, I will know how often you will get a streak of x per 10,000 hands, 100,000 hands, ect...
You can use the percentages for that. They will tell you the number of hands won/lost per hundred. Just multiply them by 100 to get the number of hands per 10,000 or by 1,000 to get the number of hands per 100,000.

-Sonny-
  #6  
Old May 2nd, 2007, 08:37 PM
Kasi Kasi is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,119
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.G. View Post
Awesome, Sonny. That's EXACTLY what I was looking for.
Just wondering what u plan to do with the information? Design a betting system?

No need to reply if it's private.
  #7  
Old May 3rd, 2007, 11:21 AM
D.G. D.G. is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasi View Post
Just wondering what u plan to do with the information? Design a betting system?

No need to reply if it's private.
Not private at all. And, yes, I'm trying to be the first person to ever design a progressive betting system that works, lol. I started out gambling hard core 4 years ago. I started counting cards with Brice Carlson's "Blackjack for Blood" counting system, but I didn't understand that counting doesn't change the # of hands you win/lose, so I was lucky to break even after 2 years of counting. The past 2 years I have gone broke playing NL Texas, and 7 card stud.

I feel like I have finally learned enough that I can make a run at a reliable income, and I feel like blackjack is the best game for that.

Here's my progressive betting strategy that I am trying to calculate-

Assume $5 is your betting unit.

Lose 5 hands in a row, then Martingale it- $25, $50, $100, ect....

My theory is that at some point, the frequency of losing x number of hands in a row will decrease to a point where when you finally do hit that big loser, you will have made more money up to that point than you lose.

To say it another way, I want to lose 5 hands in a row, then Martingale it up to a point where I will bust out on the 15th hand, with the theory that the money I have made on my previous winning sessions will be more than the money that I make on that one losing session, because the frequency of losing 15 hands in a row will be outwayed by all of the times I have succesfully Martingale'd.

My basis of this theory is that if you graph out the number of losing streaks that you will have over 100,000 hands ( x losing streaks of 3 hands, y losing streaks of 4 hands, z losing streaks of 5 hands, ect...), the graph is a curve, not a straight line.

I know that the chances of this working is slim, but I don't understand mathmatically why, so I am digging into the numbers.
  #8  
Old May 3rd, 2007, 12:00 PM
D.G. D.G. is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
You can use the percentages for that. They will tell you the number of hands won/lost per hundred. Just multiply them by 100 to get the number of hands per 10,000 or by 1,000 to get the number of hands per 100,000.

-Sonny-
Ok, so I think that I have it figured out. Out of every 100,000 hands played by this sim, there were-

LOSING STREAKS

10,544 streaks of 1
5,572 streaks of 2
2,954 streaks of 3
1,568 streaks of 4
832 streaks of 5
441 streaks of 6
234 streaks of 7
124 streaks of 8
66 streaks of 9
35 streaks of 10
19 streaks of 11
10 streaks of 12
5 streaks of 13
3 streaks of 14


Is that correct? It seems like there should be a lot more of the higher # losing streaks?
  #9  
Old May 3rd, 2007, 01:51 PM
ihate17's Avatar
ihate17 ihate17 is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,742
Default Just another Martingale but waiting till the sixth hand

Am I missing something here. If you win any of the 6th - 15th hands you will be even. If you lose the 15th hand you will be down $25,600. Most times, of course, you will be even.
I know I sent you an PM in response to your sending me one, and stated that there have been several times where I have lost over 20 hands in a row and loses of 10 or more are just not that rare.
I also can not see where you will be picking up profits of more than $5 at a time while subjecting yourself to a progression that might cause you to find a table that will accept a $12,800 bet just to break even.

ihate17
  #10  
Old May 3rd, 2007, 05:39 PM
D.G. D.G. is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ihate17 View Post
Am I missing something here. If you win any of the 6th - 15th hands you will be even. If you lose the 15th hand you will be down $25,600. Most times, of course, you will be even.
I know I sent you an PM in response to your sending me one, and stated that there have been several times where I have lost over 20 hands in a row and loses of 10 or more are just not that rare.
I also can not see where you will be picking up profits of more than $5 at a time while subjecting yourself to a progression that might cause you to find a table that will accept a $12,800 bet just to break even.

ihate17
Let's say you start the Martingale progression after the fifth loss in a row, so on the sixth bet you place a bet of $25, then $50, then $100, then $200, then $400, and once you lose that $400 bet, your session is over, $800 down.

I think the average ratio of wins to losses is 45 wins per 100 hands, 49 losses, and 6 pushes. If you use this modified Martingale, the advantage is that you will have , on average, 3 streaks per hour of 6 or more losses in a row. If you cancel those losses out with a Martingale, you are effectively shifting the win/loss ratio into a state where you will win more hands than you lose.

The question that has to be answered is- Will shifting the win loss ratio in this manner make you more money than th amount of money that you will lose, once you do hit that tenth loss (or where ever you put the stop point).

So if you start the Martingale after 5 losses in a row, and you are prepared be wiped out (of that single session), after the 10th loss, will you have enough small streaks that shift the win loss ratio in your favor to outweigh the enevitable losing session?
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:49 PM.


Forum Software vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2005-2011 Bayview Strategies LLC