Need some information, any tips on where to look?

#1
Hi I'm new and was hoping I could draw upon the collective knowledge of these forums. I'm looking for a resource that will tell me how to play any hand so I have the best chance of winning that hand. As in when you have an 11 showing, standard is to double down regardless of the dealer's upcard. However, there is a chance that you'd draw a A-5 which with a dealer upcard of 7+ would require a hit in any other circumstance. This as you all know is the better strategy but it isn't what I'm looking for. I'd like to know the very best chance of winning any given hand even if it isn't always the smart bet.

Anybody have a link or know some way I can find this out? I'm terribly poor at math and figuring this out is beyond me.
 

Jeff Dubya

Well-Known Member
#2
You need to learn basic strategy. You know, that little card they sell to the newbies at the casino? Just make sure you have the right strategy for the game you are playing.

There's a great strategy engine on this website: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

As well as a very good BS trainer. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bst/BlackjackStrategyTrainer.htm

I would also strongly recommend articles written by Fred Renzey. http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/Archives/ Renzey has also written a great book that I am reading now, called "Blackjack Bluebook"
 
#3
Thanks but I know basic strategy and that isn't what I'm looking for. I want a link, like the ones you posted, but that will tell me the best chance of winning any given hand. Not the best bet to make on that hand. The best bet doesn't always equal the best chance to win the hand. I know tihs is an unusual request, I just hope the information can be found out there at all.
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#4
Go to Wizard of Odds and look here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/bjapx5.html

I think that is probably what you are looking for. But, after reading it, I think you'll find that it is just another way of looking at Basic Strategy.

Of course at the risk of repeating what has been stated many times on this forum, I'll go further and state that to make the max return on any given hand, you would have to count and factor in the index deviations based on the count.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#5
Actually, this is a common tournament need. When a push is no good for you, you should play the hand to maximize the chances of winning the hand, which sometimes means going against basic strategy.

For almost all hands, the Must-win strategy is the same as basic strategy.
Here are some exceptions:

For a game where the dealer stands on all 17s:
With 15 or 16 vs Ten: Stand.
With 16 vs 9: Stand.
With 12 vs 2 or 3: Stand.
With 17 vs Ace: Hit.
With Soft 18 vs 8: Hit.
With Soft 18 vs Ace: Hit.

For a game where the dealer hits soft 17:
Use the previous changes, and add:
With 16 or 17 vs Ace: Stand.
With Soft 18 vs 6: Hit.

Those tables are for a 2-deck game.
If you are playing a 6-deck H17 game, add these as well:
With Soft 18 vs 4 or 5: Hit.
With Soft 18 vs 6: Stand.

(I'm surprised by that last one, but this data comes from research I did a long time ago. Why S18v6 would flip-flop the opposite direction from S18v5, I don't know. That's the only suspect entry in these charts.)

To my knowledge, this information has never been accurately presented by any author but me. My article on the topic was published in Blackjack Confidential magazine several years ago. Wong's tournament strategy book covers this, but with several mistakes.
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#6
Interesting Ken....but, are these deviations to be used only for a "Must Win" where a push will do you no good? That would only occur in tournament play....or for someone who has placed an abnormally large bet out in desperation <smile>.
 
#8
So nobody has a breakdown on the best move to win each hand... or knows where to look for one?

Thanks by the way Ken, where did you get that information? Do you have a breadkdown for every possible hand or just the ones you mentioned?
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#9
If a typical hand is not listed above, the maximize-wins strategy is the same as basic strategy. In addition, you should obviously never double a hand where you might want to draw more than one card. For example, doubling 11v4 would be OK, but doubling 11v2 is not in case you draw the Ace.
That leaves only the pair splits. Wong's tournament strategy book has the information on which pairs should still be split and which should be doubled, but I suspect there are errors in his recommendations. I haven't run the numbers for myself on those.

Where did the list above come from? I generated the strategies myself using my own combinatorial analysis software.

Note to visitors: I'm concerned that this thread will be confusing to many people. The changes to strategy described in this thread will cost you money. I produced this list because it is often useful in tournament situations to maximize the percentage chance of winning a hand, at the expense of pushing less often and thereby having a lower expected value on the hand. The trade-off makes no sense at a regular blackjack table.

In other words, don't use these variations in strategy unless you completely understand the ramifications. I can't think of any legitimate use for them outside tournaments.
 
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Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#10
KenSmith said:
Note to visitors: I'm concerned that this thread will be confusing to many people. The changes to strategy described in this thread will cost you money. I produced this list because it is often useful in tournament situations to maximize the percentage chance of winning a hand, at the expense of pushing less often and thereby having a lower expected value on the hand. The trade-off makes no sense at a regular blackjack table.

In other words, don't use these variations in strategy unless you completely understand the ramifications. I can't think of any legitimate use for them outside tournaments.
Whew!!!! Thank you for clarifying that. I had the same concerns <LOL>

In tournaments, for those of you who have never played in a BJ tournament, you will often, in the last hands, come up against a "do or die" situation. If you do not win the hand, you will not have enough chips left to beat the chip leader and you will not advance to the next round. Drastic measures are demanded and having an edge such as Ken presented, could make the difference.
 
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