shadroch said:
The one successful sports bettor that I know knows almost nothing about sports.
His only method is to put away Mondays paper,wait until Sat. compare the two lines and bet whichever games have moved X amount of points.
Smart man, it's all about line value. Especially when a line moves up or down past the pivot numbers (3, 7, etc). Half time lines about 10% of the time can give you a game with 10 or more points away from the opening line. THAT is where the real value can come in. Assuming the starting QB's were not injured before the half ends, in that case, NL will be given and action not offered. A half time line 10 or more points away from the opening spread wins around 71% of the time based upon 10 years of back referencing games vs. what the closing line was. My fav example of how this works is during a playoff game when the Buff Bills were home during a playoff game vs. the Houston Oilers. Bills were -6 1/2 for the entire game. Halftime score was something like 32-3 Oilers. Buffalo looked pitiful, halftime line was one half of the closing line = 3 to 3.5 at most casinos. Buffalo came back to win and the almost covered the 6 1/2 points! I remember they won by 6. However, when in light of the half time line, Buffalo could have LOST the game by 25 (29 - 3.5 = 25.5pts) and you would have won the halftime bet of Bills -3.5.
The line value? Simple:
THE GAME: Bills -6.5
HALF TIME: Bills -3.5 (if you do the math, this is actually Bills +25!!!)
25 pts + 6.5 = 31.5 pts of value.
THAT is line value.
The reason being, NFL lines are set by the oddsmakers and moved by the betting public. The games for the most part, generally speaking on the average, fairly set. The handicapping has already been done for the mathematical bettor. This bettor can take advantage of teams that have a tendency of starting out of the gates with guns ablazing vs. a team that is slow starting.
I didn't use this way of betting for college games due to lack of parity and quite frankly although you can get plenty of line value, unless you know of a coaches tendency, I avoided college football halftimes unless if the game involved Notre Dame(Holtz era) in the game with ND up by 30-35 pts. Holtz would always put in the scrubs in the 3rd quarter till the end whenver he was up by the mid 30's. Used to make easy money on Air Force this way as ND and AF would usually trade points. ND would frequently be laying 30-33 pts as a home fav. Half time line was typically 16-17 making ND a 46-50 pt home favorite under Holtz. Doesn't take an Einstein to figure out where the line value is here.