How many shoes for you?

[scuba]

just a quick question. . shoes games, 8 deck. How many shoes you count would be in your favour. Could you make something out of all of them or only a few or none you count would be any good. . I counted 10 in my first session with the highest count of 1- 2. Is this normal? Am i counting wrong? I use casino verite and count flawless.

Cheers?

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by scuba

just a quick question. . shoes games, 8 deck. How many shoes you count would be in your favour. Could you make something out of all of them or only a few or none you count would be any good. . I counted 10 in my first session with the highest count of 1- 2. Is this normal? Am i counting wrong? I use casino verite and count flawless.

Cheers?

for six deck its around one out of five shoes will get you a exploitable true count on average. i'd say that is a bit subjective since it depends on how agressively you bet.

[MEDITANK]

Don't forget, without decent pen, min 70% as the absolute least, positive TC's are diminished greatly as the chances of the 10's appearing lessens, not always I want to emphasis, but quite frequently. Played at a garbage joint last night, 8D with 3.2D pen. TC's were decent, +2 to +4 on one out of every 3rd shoe, but the 10's were hiding somewhere. When you see the +TC remain the same at the end of the shoe, you will understand the importance of pen

Luckily escaped and made some bucks at that joint, but I will never go back there. CBJN's report was way way off. It stated 1.7D, but things can change fast in this hobby.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by scuba

just a quick question. . shoes games, 8 deck. How many shoes you count would be in your favour. Could you make something out of all of them or only a few or none you count would be any good. . I counted 10 in my first session with the highest count of 1- 2. Is this normal? Am i counting wrong? I use casino verite and count flawless.

Cheers?

I guess it all depends on what 8D game with what rules at what level of penetration and what u define as "in your favor".

Why don't you set up casino verite with the card counting system you are using and the level of penetration and rules of the game u r talking about and then count 10 shoes and look at the results on the graphs.

But I don't think much more than 6-7% of your hands will be at TC+3 or more as a wild guess.

Interesting how quickly self-doubt can enter the picture despite counting flawlessly in simulation!

Not picking on u in any way but this game can sure make one scratch one's head and wonder "Is it me or the BJ Gods?"

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Kasi

......

Interesting how quickly self-doubt can enter the picture despite counting flawlessly in simulation!

Not picking on u in any way but this game can sure make one scratch one's head and wonder "Is it me or the BJ Gods?"

it most certainly is interesting. what a strange game blackjack is. the very nature of how it plays out slices one up like a two edged sword. if you win a few hands you think this is great play on but the truth of the matter is that likely those few winning hands you were just distracted by meant the composition of the pack remaining to be dealt is now poorer in high value cards. so one finds ones self being cheered and encouraged by the result of the very factors that are slowly working to bring disaster down upon your head.
on the other hand for the most part one finds ones self losing more hands than one wins. the more one plays the more one experiences this. this of course goes on and on since the dealer acts last and has that sneaky advantage of winning when against you if you bust even if he busts. it's difficult to grasp the advantage that this fact gives the dealer and even if you know that it's mainly sucessful double downs, sucessful insurance bets and blackjacks that gives you a fighting chance it's not casually evident to you that those sucessful doubles, sucessful insurance bets and blackjacks occur mostly when the pack remaining to be dealt is richer in high value cards than low value cards. you really lose nearly as many hands when you have the advantage so even when you are winning you feel as if you are losing.
then there is lady luck's pernicious behavior that is built in to blackjack as normal fluctuation. the thing that can make a clueless ploppy a winner for a short while and a skillful counter lose when everything is done right.
the way blackjack naturally plays out spells a recipe for disaster if one can't maintain the mental mindset to stick to the gameplan in the face of what naturely invites one to recklously overbet as a result of a feeling or frustration and desperation or a feeling of invincability.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g

on the other hand for the most part one finds ones self losing more hands than one wins. the more one plays the more one experiences this.

I can relate to everything u said - are we lucky or good lol? And how do we know?

Assuming a play-all approach, I don't think the number of hands one wins or loses changes. - we always lose more hands than we win.

Even in + counts, it wouldn't surprise me that we still lose more hands than we win. But I don't know that or at what TC we might actually win more hands than we lose. Maybe TC +4 or so?

About the only time we might win more hands than we lose using BS is when we double - and even that's not absolutely true.

[positiveEV]

Originally Posted by Kasi

About the only time we might win more hands than we lose using BS is when we double - and even that's not absolutely true.

If you don't win more hands than you loose on a double down, then the correct move would not be to double, because doubling would then double your loses and it's impossible to get a blackjack after a double down.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by asiafever

If you don't win more hands than you loose on a double down, then the correct move would not be to double, because doubling would then double your loses and it's impossible to get a blackjack after a double down.

Sorry - I meant winning less than 50% of your hands when u double - so even though u don't win more than half the hands, it's still OK to double.