Do I have an edge? How big is it

[jee_pack]

at a game which has an edge of 0,45% over the players, w/8 decks. I practice (computer software) backcounting tables of 2 players, (HILOW), at TC 1 1/2, I wong-in with one hand and 1 unit, if TC Drops below 1, I leave, althoug, if it drops to barely below 1, I stay, another hand and see, but at TC 0.5, I should be gone unless I'm winning a lot of money (avoiding the risk of wonging out too early), but generally, I leave when it drops below 1 for more than 2 rounds (I leave on the second one). At TC +2, I bet 1 unit but play 2 hands, TC +3 = 2 hands at 2 units each, TC +4 = 2 hands at 3 units each and TC +5 and up, I play 2 hands with 4 units. I will play with this a bit on intuition, but never against the basic math, for example, if TC drops below 3 after a win to "almost +3", I'll still bet 2 units but only for 1 hand... even though in the end, this won't make much difference as my system is already far from optimal....

1: so do I have an edge?
2: what is the edge (can someone estimate it)
3: about how many hands should I play to see if I make money in the long run like this?
4: can anyone tell me approximatly what is my risk of ruin with a bankroll of 100 units, and also perhaps with 50 units...

if anyone's got ideas to make this better... feel free to express them

Thanks in advance

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by jee_pack

at a game which has an edge of 0,45% over the players, w/8 decks. I practice (computer software) backcounting tables of 2 players, (HILOW), at TC 1 1/2, I wong-in with one hand and 1 unit, if TC Drops below 1, I leave, althoug, if it drops to barely below 1, I stay, another hand and see, but at TC 0.5, I should be gone unless I'm winning a lot of money (avoiding the risk of wonging out too early), but generally, I leave when it drops below 1 for more than 2 rounds (I leave on the second one). At TC +2, I bet 1 unit but play 2 hands, TC +3 = 2 hands at 2 units each, TC +4 = 2 hands at 3 units each and TC +5 and up, I play 2 hands with 4 units. I will play with this a bit on intuition, but never against the basic math, for example, if TC drops below 3 after a win to "almost +3", I'll still bet 2 units but only for 1 hand... even though in the end, this won't make much difference as my system is already far from optimal....

1: so do I have an edge?
2: what is the edge (can someone estimate it)
3: about how many hands should I play to see if I make money in the long run like this?
4: can anyone tell me approximatly what is my risk of ruin with a bankroll of 100 units, and also perhaps with 50 units...

if anyone's got ideas to make this better... feel free to express them

Thanks in advance

i'll give a totally questimate so definately don't go to the bank with this:
1. yes
2. circa 1.1%
3. playing against the computer try for 30,000 hands i think that would get you close to your N0 . but it would be better if you could simulate multiple millions of hands.
4. looks to be less than 2% ROR per trip.

sorry i can't simulate this for you now but that is what you need to do.

[jee_pack]

thanks for replying! I'd like to ask you a few questions though... (your reply is below)

1: what does CIRCA mean?
2: what is N0?
3: I like that risk of ruin, That's good? right? How do you calculate it? And what exactly does it mean?

Thanks for the help!

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by jee_pack

thanks for replying! I'd like to ask you a few questions though... (your reply is below)

1: what does CIRCA mean?
2: what is N0?
3: I like that risk of ruin, That's good? right? How do you calculate it? And what exactly does it mean?

Thanks for the help!

Circa means around. There are other people here who can better explain N0, but if you search you will find it since it has been answered before.

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by jee_pack

thanks for replying! I'd like to ask you a few questions though... (your reply is below)

1: what does CIRCA mean?
2: what is N0?
3: I like that risk of ruin, That's good? right? How do you calculate it? And what exactly does it mean?

Thanks for the help!

for N0 see this link:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/N0.htm

for ROR (risk of ruin) see this link:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ror/ror.htm

[Cardcounter]

I don't know how good your playing stragedy is. Do you play index plays, do you even play basic stragedy? I have had people tell me they play basic stragedy but than I deal to them and I see them make basic stragedy mistakes. So not knowing how many mistakes you might make out of a 1000 plays I could not tell you your advantage.

[jee_pack]

don't worry about that, I know basic strategy second nature and I also have adjustments from the count, which I got from the Mensa guide to blackjack which gives the same strategy adjustment that they used in the MIT team. no worry's about that at all.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by jee_pack

2: what is N0?
3: I like that risk of ruin, That's good? right? How do you calculate it? And what exactly does it mean?

Risk of Ruin is the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll due to negative variance. The formulas are in Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack or you can use the calculators on the QFIT website:

http://www.qfit.com/cvcxonline.htm

You can also search these forums for more info on RoR.

Here's some info on N0:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891

-Sonny-