Successful Non-Counters

[DC15]

Anyone know of any famous BJ players who are non counters and successful, I really only know of Donald Dahl because I have his book. I have no interest in card counting due to the fact that it is very hard to pull off these days with multiple decks and CSM's, I also like to keep it simple and fun.

DC

[shadroch]

There are plenty of successful non-counters. But they all hole-card,shuffle-track or do something to gain the advantage.The odds of someone being successful playing BJ without something to wipe out the house edge are astronomical. Progressions of any type don't wipe out the house edge.

[dacium]

The odds are hardly astronomical...

For example even if you use martingale you still have about a 33% chance of doubling your money. So one in every hundred people who use martingale will make over 4 times their money. One in every 1000 will make 7 times their money.

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by dacium

The odds are hardly astronomical...

For example even if you use martingale you still have about a 33% chance of doubling your money. So one in every hundred people who use martingale will make over 4 times their money. One in every 1000 will make 7 times their money.

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

Where are you coming up with these figures?One in a hundred martingalers will make four times their money? That makes no sense. Four times what money?Are you claiming that 1% of people who martingale will be successful in the long run? Based on what?

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by DC15

Anyone know of any famous BJ players who are non counters and successful, I really only know of Donald Dahl because I have his book. I have no interest in card counting due to the fact that it is very hard to pull off these days with multiple decks and CSM's, I also like to keep it simple and fun.

DC

What makes you think Dahl is successful? Because he said so? Progression strategies cannot give you an advantage.

[dacium]

Originally Posted by shadroch

Where are you coming up with these figures?One in a hundred martingalers will make four times their money? That makes no sense. Four times what money?Are you claiming that 1% of people who martingale will be successful in the long run? Based on what?

I never said anything about being successful 'in the long run'. I said if you martingale some amount of money, you have a 1 in 3 chance to double it, 1 in 100 chance to 4x it and 1 in 1000 chance to 7x it. This was off the top of my head.

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose, and you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row a total of 75/5=15 times to win 15*5 = $75. The chance of not loosing 4 games in a row is 1-(0.505^4) = 93.49%. Doing this 15 times in a row is 0.9349^15=36.43%. So therefore 36.43% of people who attempt to double their money on a martingale progression succeed.

It also follows that 36.43% of that 36.43% will double their money again.
So to make 4 times your money it would be 0.3643^4=1.76%. Thats 1 in 56 people trying this progression will win 4 times their money, so if they started with $75 they will walk away with $300 won plus their 75.

All that I am saying is that the odds of some one being successful are not 'astronomical'. I know several people who play basic strategy and progression who have not yet lost their starting money. Its called standard deviation and variance.

[EasyRhino]

Tournament players?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by dacium

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose…

The odds for BJ are slightly different. Excluding ties, the player will win 47% of the hands and lose 53% of the hands. That makes it a little tougher to beat the odds.

Originally Posted by dacium

…you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row

But that won’t double your money, it will only win you one unit. You would need to win 15 units to double your $75 bankroll. The chances of being ahead by 15 units are much worse than the chances of not losing 4 in a row.

As far as comparing it to card counting, it’s not fair to compare someone trying to win $5 to someone trying to win $12,000. You don’t consider the bankroll requirements for the progression player. To have a fair comparison they should both have the same amount of risk. If the card counter has a 1-in-20 chance of going broke (a 5% RoR) then you should give the progression player a big enough bankroll to have the same chances of success. Then you could fairly see who will take longer to double his bankroll.

Actually, this would be an interesting experiment...

-Sonny-

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by dacium

I never said anything about being successful 'in the long run'. I said if you martingale some amount of money, you have a 1 in 3 chance to double it, 1 in 100 chance to 4x it and 1 in 1000 chance to 7x it. This was off the top of my head.

If a game is 50.5% to win and 49.5% chance to loose, and you are playing martingale lets say you have $75, so the bets are $5 10 20 40. To double your money you need to not loose 4 games in a row a total of 75/5=15 times to win 15*5 = $75. The chance of not loosing 4 games in a row is 1-(0.505^4) = 93.49%. Doing this 15 times in a row is 0.9349^15=36.43%. So therefore 36.43% of people who attempt to double their money on a martingale progression succeed.

It also follows that 36.43% of that 36.43% will double their money again.
So to make 4 times your money it would be 0.3643^4=1.76%. Thats 1 in 56 people trying this progression will win 4 times their money, so if they started with $75 they will walk away with $300 won plus their 75.

All that I am saying is that the odds of some one being successful are not 'astronomical'. I know several people who play basic strategy and progression who have not yet lost their starting money. Its called standard deviation and variance.

Its called bullshit,and you know it.
Its like telling someone they should quit when they are ahead.

[Mimosine]

Originally Posted by dacium

Now compare a card counter. 'proper' bank roll is about $12,000 to make $9 per hour, thats over 1300 hours of play just to double your money.

$9 is well below the expectation for this sized bankroll. it isn't $100s of dollars an hour, but it sure as hell isn't $9. i would guess it is closer to $30/hour depending on rules, system, and style of play.

e.g. 1-4 spread in DD game using KO. a $25 min bet should yield at least $30/hour.