even money option for blackjack

[xxrenegadexx]

Does anyone know at what point(true count) or if at all it is the correct play to take the even money option for a blackjack?

[21forme]

Originally Posted by xxrenegadexx

Does anyone know at what point(true count) or if at all it is the correct play to take the even money option for a blackjack?

Even money is the same as insurance, so take it at the same TC you'd take insurance if you didn't have a blackjack.

[ihate17]

+3

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by 21forme

Even money is the same as insurance, so take it at the same TC you'd take insurance if you didn't have a blackjack.

To nitpick, taking even money at a slightly lower count decreases variance, which makes it a more profitable play. I'll usually take even money if the insurance count is close, or if I have a big bet out and the count has dropped during the hand.

[shadroch]

I once rode back from AC with a guy who spent half the trip trying to get me to understand that insurance and even money were not the same thing. That one had a slightly higher long term value.
Was he correct?

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I once rode back from AC with a guy who spent half the trip trying to get me to understand that insurance and even money were not the same thing. That one had a slightly higher long term value.
Was he correct?

No, even money IS insurance.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by shadroch

I once rode back from AC with a guy who spent half the trip trying to get me to understand that insurance and even money were not the same thing. That one had a slightly higher long term value.
Was he correct?

Yes, see above. Any decrease in variance is the same as being able to bet a higher unit with the same RoR, which means a higher win rate.

[shadroch]

AM seems to be implying otherwise.This guy kept telling me that there were some situations where you'd take one but not the other.

[ihate17]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

To nitpick, taking even money at a slightly lower count decreases variance, which makes it a more profitable play. I'll usually take even money if the insurance count is close, or if I have a big bet out and the count has dropped during the hand.

At a borderline count, the cost to you is insignificant in my opinion. I weight this situation with another factor, what has happened in that pit in the past. If I had recently taken even money in a higher count, now have a borderline count, I will always take it again. If the opposite is true, then I would decline.

ihate17

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Yes, see above. Any decrease in variance is the same as being able to bet a higher unit with the same RoR, which means a higher win rate.

It doesn't matter if the variance decreases or not, that doesn't make the actual bet of even-money more valuable. I'm not talking about lifetime EV here, I'm talking about the insurance/even money bet EV.

Let's say me and you are sitting at the same table and we both bet 100 dollars. You get a blackjack and I get a 20. You take even money, and I insure my 20. That means we both have bet 50 dollars the dealer will have a BJ. Well, how does your 50 earn more money than my 50? It doesn't, and never will earn more than mine, because it's the same bet.

So, the EV of the ACTUAL BET of insurance or even money is always the same. One will not have a slightly higher EV in the longrun.