Refining my "visit the local casino" plan

[BlackDog]

Hi all!

Just wondering if anyone would like to offer up their ideas on the following plan...

I want to be able to walk into a casino, play Blackjack for as long as it takes, and walk out with 1000 extra bucks.

I have BS down and count using the basic Hi-Lo method. I will be playing against a 6 deck shoe.

So, here are my questions...

1. Is this possible to do on a regular basis and not get caught counting?

2. What is the minimum bank roll you would want to have immediately available?

3. Table selection...min/max bet size...number of players...time of day...

4. Any particular betting strategy you would use?

5. Anything you would like to add? Suggested reading, websites, or anything that has actually helped your game...

Keep in mind I am planning on actually doing this. I have a couple of more months of training at home that I want to do. Then I will hit the local casinos with a SMALL bank roll in order to get used to playing live. I have not played much with real money but have spent a ton of time this year learning at home.

Any input will be greatly appreciated and I will be more than happy to post my results....win or lose.

[SoBu Mike]

I'm not the one to ask honestly. I play a lot, but more for fun than anything. I just flat betand increase as I win and last week, I was down about 250 at one point playing on a 15 dollar table. Betting mostly 15 and 20 dollars, I got up to 750 in about an hour, and then went to a 25 dollar table and got to 1200 in another hour. So you can do it with a small bankroll if you use a hundred or 2 to build up first. It is hard to do regularly, but the past 2 weeks, I have come out a couple hundred ahead 4 or 5 different times. I'm going tonight for the 1000 and if I get it, I'm going to stop going for a while. I just can't sit out the lucky streak right now.

Mike

[KenSmith]

BlackDog, an average profit of $1000 per night is pretty ambitious.
Here are some numbers...

Let's assume you are playing a good 2-deck game, and varying your bets from $100 to $800 per hand based on the count. A good counting system will yield a profit of $1000 in this situation over about 350 hands. Depending on how fast the table is and how many other players there are, that's anywhere from 3 to 6 hours of play.

Of course, your single session results will typically be much larger wins or losses than the $1000 you are hoping to win. Two-thirds of the time, your results will be between a loss of $7000 and a win of $9000. One third of the time, you'll either lose more than $7K or win more than $9K in a single night.

Would you like to revise your expectations yet? :D

[KenSmith]

Oops, I see you'll be playing a six-deck game instead. Things just got a lot tougher.

First, we'll increase the spread, and bet from $100 to $1200.
Then you'll need more hands. It'll take close to 500 hands to make your expected profit.
The risk also worsens. In a typical night of 500 hands, two-thirds of the time you'll be between a loss of $12,000 and a win of $14,000 per night.

[hiimdoug]

1. Is this possible to do on a regular basis and not get caught counting?

Yes, it is possible but, you want to make sure you don’t hit the same shifts over and over again. Along with that, dress appropriate for time of day, if you’re going in the afternoon dress like a business man taking a few hours away from work. At night dress like a gambler/high roller. and make sure you act the part. And don't let yourself become known as a regular.


2. What is the minimum bank roll you would want to have immediately available?

Assuming you use KenSmith's bet spread of $100-$1200 the absolute minimum bankroll you should have is $150,000 and if you get unlucky (in the 5 percentile) you'll lose it all. According to Stanford Wong(www.bj21.com) while using the hi/lo count system you should have 250 times your big bet which in that case would be $300,000.

3. Table selection...min/max bet size...number of players...time of day...

with your table selection make sure its the table conditions with the best odds in your favor.
As for number of players, theoretically it doesn’t matter, but the fewer the better, more hands equals more money.

min/max bet size see #2, and see KenSmiths post

4. Any particular betting strategy you would use?

again, see KenSmiths Post and #5

5. Anything you would like to add? Suggested reading, websites, or anything that has actually helped your game...
http://www.bj21.com

Just remember you've got a 1.25% advantage over the house. Card Counting is not magic, it applying the law of large numbers in your favor... sooner or later you’ll be up, but in the middle you could be down, and if you hope to make a "$1000 extra bux" by just walking in, playing and walking out, you might want to re-evaluate doing this with card counting... sorry if that bursts your bubble... if not, more power too ya and good luck!!! just make sure and leave some money for the rest of us to win!!!

[BlackDog]

Originally Posted by KenSmith

Would you like to revise your expectations yet? :D

Nope...not just yet...I have the time to learn and spend at the tables and the bankroll :D However, I do not want to be stupid about it and lose money making dumb mistakes. So, thanks for the numbers and advice it helps a lot! Anything else you can think of in the future would be appreciated as well as I am sure I have not thought of everything

[BlackDog]

Originally Posted by hiimdoug

...and if you hope to make a "$1000 extra bux" by just walking in, playing and walking out, you might want to re-evaluate doing this with card counting... sorry if that bursts your bubble... if not, more power too ya and good luck!!! just make sure and leave some money for the rest of us to win!!!

Didn't burst it yet I am quite sure if it was that easy casinos would be dropping Blackjack and quick! Thanks for the info...very helpful!