Betting on three hands per round

[deadlywizard234]

Anybody have a way of figuring out hourly gain and risk of ruin when betting on 3 hands per round?? Can't figure it out using CVCX (can use it only to figure out 2 hands per round)

Here are the game conditions:

Count system: Complete Hi-Lo using Ill18
Decks: 6
Rules: H17 DAS
Hands per Hour: 150
Spread: (from $25 to $500, so 20)
Penetration: 52
Bankroll: $100,000

Anybody able to figure out the optimal hourly gain with a risk of ruin under 5%, all while betting on 3 hands per round and given the above conditions.



That said, I inserted the above information into the cvcx online viewer along with a risk of ruin of .9% (betting on 2 hands per a round, simplified bets) and managed to came up with an hourly gain of $290 using this betting strategy:

True Count Optimal Bet
<=0 2 x $25
1 2 x $50
2 2 x $125
3 2 x $300
>=4 2 x $500

[zengrifter]

CVX should be able to sim 3hand max bets. I like the max bet topping out at 1% divided between two hands.

Anyone do this man's sim? zg

[Automatic Monkey]

How about this one:

<2- 3 X $25 (You are still -EV at TC+1 in this game!)

2- 3 X $200
3- 3 X $350
4- 3 X $500

Win rate @ 150 hands per hour= $497.72

IBA%= 1.179%

SCORE= 50.94

SD/100= 186.0

N0= 19629

Absolute RoR with a 4000 unit BR= 4.61%

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Absolute RoR with a 4000 unit BR= 4.61%

If he tanks to 50k and cuts his betsize to half that would bring his overall RoR to what, 1%? zg

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

If he tanks to 50k and cuts his betsize to half that would bring his overall RoR to what, 1%? zg

No, to 4.61%! Betting unit/bankroll remains constant for constant RoR.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

No, to 4.61%! Betting unit/bankroll remains constant for constant RoR.

Then he needs to be clear that he is constantly resizing his bets, correct? zg

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Then he needs to be clear that he is constantly resizing his bets, correct? zg

No, absolute RoR does not account for a bet size change. It's the probability that a person who plays a certain game always at a certain betting level will ever go bankrupt.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

No, absolute RoR does not account for a bet size change. It's the probability that a person who plays a certain game always at a certain betting level will ever go bankrupt.

But if he knows ahead of time that he will be cutting back his bets if his bankroll drops then he will have a smaller ROR to start with. I don’t remember Schlesinger’s exact calculation off hand. I’ll have to look it up when I get home. He had a formula for adjusting the initial ROR if the player accepts a bet resize at a 50% bankroll drop.

-Sonny-

[zengrifter]

For DW's purpose he should resize at 75% and 50% tank. This will smooth things a bit and further reduce RoR.

On the other hand he should NOT resize upwards untill at least +50%. zg

[deadlywizard234]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

How about this one:

<2- 3 X $25 (You are still -EV at TC+1 in this game!)

2- 3 X $200
3- 3 X $350
4- 3 X $500

Win rate @ 150 hands per hour= $497.72

IBA%= 1.179%

SCORE= 50.94

SD/100= 186.0



N0= 19629

Absolute RoR with a 4000 unit BR= 4.61%

Ahhh ok, thanks for info, you weren't able to use CVCX to figure this out, were you?