Hole Card Sim

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#1
If anyone has the software I'd like to see a specific hole card simulation. In particular, an ace-neutral counting system with a TC of -4. I'd like to use it to try and improve my Spanish 21 hole card strategy.
Thanks,
BW
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#2
Are you counting AND playing hole cards? I would ditch the counting so you can make sure you don't look like a card counter.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#3
moo321 said:
Are you counting AND playing hole cards? I would ditch the counting so you can make sure you don't look like a card counter.
No. I want the info to generate a hole card strategy for SP21. Im not a computer programmer but there is software that adjusts holecard strategy to the count. A TC-4 in an ace neutral count with LS is going to generate something close to a SP21 hole card strategy. Right now I use my best guess, that's what I want to improve on.
BW
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#5
This might be possible to generate with CVDate ST. I'm running a sim right now, but once it's finished i'll take a look see what i come up with. If i'm right, should be able to do it with Spanish 21 rules rather than improvising.

RJT.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#6
RJT said:
This might be possible to generate with CVDate ST. I'm running a sim right now, but once it's finished i'll take a look see what i come up with. If i'm right, should be able to do it with Spanish 21 rules rather than improvising.
RJT.
Can CVDate ST run a hole card sim for SP21?? I wasn't aware of a software that could do it, hence my interest for a TC-4 ace neutral hole card strategy. Please keep me posted!
BW
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#7
Alright Brock,
Sorry i'd almost forgotten about this. Had a discussion with Norm - CVData can run sims on S21 Hole Carding and can generate HCing strategy changes, but can't generate a basic strategy. Sorry mate.

RJT.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#8
RJT said:
Alright Brock,
Sorry i'd almost forgotten about this. Had a discussion with Norm - CVData can run sims on S21 Hole Carding and can generate HCing strategy changes, but can't generate a basic strategy. Sorry mate.

RJT.
To confirm. CVData can run sims on SP21...AND... Hole carding....And can generate hole carding strategy changes. But can NOT generate a Spanish 21 hole card strategy. This is what I expected. Still if you can run it I'd like to see a -4TC hole card strategy in an ace neutral count. This should get something close to a Spanish 21 hole card strategy and I'll make my own calculations for Double Down rescue adjustments and bonus payouts.
Thanks,
BW
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#9
I've dicussed this with Norm further and unfortunately CVData doesn't support index generation for HC sims. Think this one's pretty much at a dead end, unless you can find someone who could run sims generate the correct BS for this game.

RJT.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#10
Appologies. Norm's just mailed me - apparently i mis-interpreted one of his mails. Apparently CVData does support index generation for HC sims, just not S21 HC sims.

RJT.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#11
Right I had heard the same. His software can do a hole card sim at TC-4 in an ace neutral count with special rules like suited 678 pays 2:1, but can't do a specific Spanish21 hole card sim. Hopefully a later version will have these applications...right now I'm not sure the added EV would justify me buying the program just to calculate that one sim, though my understanding is that it is the best BJ software on the market.
BW
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#12
CVData ST is very versitile. I've encountered a couple of things that it can't do yet, but that's when i've been looking to simulate some very unusual situations and in those instances Norm's been very helpful and co-operative in trying to find some way round the issue.
If you give me exactly what you want to see, i'll run a sim. HC, using Ace neutral count (Hi Opt I do?) with what rules, spread, bonus payouts, penetration, double down rescue etc etc?

RJT.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#13
Spanish 21 Sim

That is great RJT!
Below are the rules. The 777 bonus is neglible since it happens so infrequently.

A player 21 always wins.
Player blackjack beats dealer blackjack.
Player may double on any number of cards.
Player may hit and double down after splitting aces.
Player may surrender after doubling, known as "double down rescue." The player forfeits an amount equal to his original bet.
A five-card 21 pays 3 to 2, a six-card 21 pays 2 to 1, a seven or more card 21 pays 3 to 1. However, the bonuses are not paid if the player doubled.
A 6-7-8 or 7-7-7 of mixed suits pays 3 to 2, of the same suit pays 2 to 1, and of spades pays 3 to 1. These bonuses do not pay after doubling.
Suited 7-7-7 when the dealer has a seven face up pays $1000 for bets of $5-$24 and $5000 for bets of $25 or over. In addition, all other players receive a $50 "envy bonus." This bonus does not pay after doubling or splitting.
Dealer stands on a soft 17.
8 Spanish decks are used.
Late surrender on the initial two cards.
A player may make an insurance bet of half of their initial wager even after receiving a blackjack paying 3:2

Best sim I can think of is Hi OptI with a TC of -4 as you suggested. 75% Pen and flat betting.
I think the double down plays vs dealer pat hands could be worked out using simple probabilities. For example a 10 vs a dealer 17 has six ways to win double the initial bet, one way to push, and 5 ways to lose the initial bet. I think this makes it a better play to double than hit.
BW
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#14
Brock,
I have tried to run this sim or as close to the above specified conditions as i could get a couple of times now. Unfortunately it's not giving me the right results. The numbers it's coming up with are just flat out wrong - hiting player 21s etc etc. I've spoken to Norm about this - the problem is one of 2 things. Either the program itself does not like the conditions as it wasn't developed to sim SP hole carding or more likely i've made some mistakes imputting the data. I'd been through this a couple of times now and can't find any mistakes, but i'll keep playing about and see what i come up with.

RJT.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#15
Thanks RJT, your diligence is commendable. I guess there are a few bugs in any software, then more so in trying to write for extreme specifics such as these. Hopefully QFIT can sort it out and we can get some numbers for this. I can't be the only player that's excited about it.
BW
 
#16
Special Alert: Be advised that HC player extraordinaire, STALKER, has stated unequivocally, here in this very forum, that simulation software has NEVER been used to calc correct HC strategy.

Its the roids, man! zg
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#17
Brock Windsor said:
I can't be the only player that's excited about it.
You're not :)

Heck, I'd even settle for an EV table for BS for the AC game.

Apparently alot of you guys see the dealer's hole card a whole lot more often than I do :)

As to the 777 bonus, I once had the original odds of 1 in 550,000 down to 1 in 66.

But I lost :)

With a $25 bet too.

To make it just that more painful lol.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#18
zengrifter said:
Special Alert: Be advised that HC player extraordinaire, STALKER, has stated unequivocally, here in this very forum, that simulation software has NEVER been used to calc correct HC strategy.

Its the roids, man! zg
Well one could count AND hole card simultaneously, but to the degree of accuracy simulation software calculates BS, I would think it is only logical it could calculate a hole card BS with equal accuracy.
 
#19
Brock Windsor said:
Well one could count AND hole card simultaneously, but to the degree of accuracy simulation software calculates BS, I would think it is only logical it could calculate a hole card BS with equal accuracy.
Of course! What could the Roided One be talking about? zg
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#20
RJT said:
Brock,
I have tried to run this sim or as close to the above specified conditions as i could get a couple of times now. Unfortunately it's not giving me the right results. The numbers it's coming up with are just flat out wrong - hiting player 21s etc etc. I've spoken to Norm about this - the problem is one of 2 things. Either the program itself does not like the conditions as it wasn't developed to sim SP hole carding or more likely i've made some mistakes imputting the data. I'd been through this a couple of times now and can't find any mistakes, but i'll keep playing about and see what i come up with.

RJT.
Any more news on this? A trend Im starting to notice hole carding Spanish 21 is that doubling A2 vs dealer 12 may be a bad play. Since you can double on any number of cards (ie you put a 5 on your A2 and double on the soft 18) and also a dealer 12 is quite strong in Spanish21. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I think the better play may be to hit this particular hand. Also curious about thoughts on when to surrender to a 19.
BW
 
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