Win/Loss/Tie% ?

[b]

I read that the averages on any hand of Bj is win 40%, lose 45%, push 5% or something like that. I assume that is at a count of 0.
Does anyone know how those %'s change based on the count?
Is there a table for this?
Count W L P
-1 ? ? ?
0 40 45 5
+1 ? ? ?
+2
+3


thanks for any help

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by b

I read that the averages on any hand of Bj is win 40%, lose 45%, push 5% or something like that.

I think it is around 43% win, 49% lose and 8% tie.

Originally Posted by b

Does anyone know how those %'s change based on the count?

It doesn’t change much based on the count. You will still win/lose about the same at just about any count.

-Sonny-

[b]

Sonny
My numbers added up to only 90% - good thing I am an accountant by trade.
I guess I am a little surprised by your answer that the %'s dont change with the count. Intuitively I would have guessed that at a count of +4 (+1.5%) that my win % s/b over 50% at least?
If you are correct then where is the logic that we should big bets on high counts come from if our win % doesnt increase?

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by b

My numbers added up to only 90% - good thing I am an accountant by trade.

Now if only you could find a way to pay 90% of your taxes…

Originally Posted by b

If you are correct then where is the logic that we should big bets on high counts come from if our win % doesnt increase?

The reason you bet big on high counts is not because you win more hands but because the hands that you win are worth more money. At a high count you are more likely to get a blackjack, which pays 3:2 instead of 1:1. Even if you only win 43% of the time you still have a +EV situation. Imagine a game where you got a BJ 43% of the time and the dealer got a BJ 49% of the time:

.43 * 1.5 - .49 = 0.155 = 15.5% advantage!

You will also win more double downs and the dealer will bust his stiffs more often. That is the reason that a high count is more profitable than a negative/neutral count.

-Sonny-

[schismist]

I believe at high counts, you actually push much more, lose a little more, and win less. However, when you win you win 150% as much when you get a blackjack and 200% to 800% as much when you double or split.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by b

I guess I am a little surprised by your answer that the %'s dont change with the count... If you are correct then where is the logic that we should big bets on high counts come from if our win % doesnt increase?

Surely the W/L/T percentages are not constant over any and all counts.?!

I don't know by how much they change at what counts but they must change somewhat I would think. Like u say. And even Sonny seems to say.

[schismist]

No, like I said, of course they are not constant. Think of an extreme case: a deck with four tens, and only four tens. The push rate here is 100%!

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by schismist

No, like I said, of course they are not constant. Think of an extreme case: a deck with four tens, and only four tens. The push rate here is 100%!

Couldn't agree with u more

Just didn't want to hit anyone that thinks otherwise with a sledgehammer lol.

O yeah - I also agree with what u said about the effect of extremely high counts.

[shadroch]

[QUOTE=Sonny;49705]Now if only you could find a way to pay 90% of your taxes…



If THEY could find a way to make us pay 90% of our taxes,........

[Cardcounter]

What if instead of how many hands you won they adjusted it for double downs counting as 2 wins or 2 loses. If you split to 3 hands you could get up to 3 wins in the hand or 3 loses. If you got a blackjack it would count as 1 1/2 wins. I wonder what the win, loss, and push ratio would look like than after the adjustments.