Optimal Strategy for the Flat Better

I've never played BJ in a casino, however, I've been thinking about how I should approach the game when I have the chance to play. However, even then, I don't expect to be playing a lot - maybe one weekend a year. I don't mind necessarily that the house has a very slight edge, however, I do want to use some strategy to minimize the house edge as much as possible while minimizing fluctuation in bankrole to the extent feasible.

So, how should I approach the game? I don't think I should count cards and play a 1:10 spread at a $25 minimum table. So there are three strategic areas I'm considering:

1) Are there any double-down plays that have such a small increase in expected gain that should not be made in the interest of minimizing bankroll fluctuation? For example, while it may be correct per basic strategy to double-down on a 9 versus a dealer 3 in a six-deck shoe, is the gain in advantage so small, that perhaps I should pass on this on other similar plays to minimize bankrole fluctuation, with the tradeoff that I give a slightly greater advanage to the house?

2) How could card counting be used to alter basic strategy? For example, by my calculations, the expected increase in return from hitting a hard 16 versus a dealer 10 is very small. Also, by my rough estimate, somewhere between 20% to 25% of hands will have a hard 16 versus dealer 10 at some point during the hand. It seems that there is great potential to devise a counting strategy specific to making the decision to stand on 16 versus a 10.

Interesting side-note: If one is trying to devise an optimal counting strategy specifically for making the decision about standing on 16 vs. a 10, my simulations show that ace should count as a low card, not a high card as in hi-low. Also, not unexpectedly a higher prevalence of 6's would encourage the player to stand on 16, however, 7's go the other way. In general, it looks like a higher prevalence of Ace through 5 and 7's would warrent hitting a 16, and a higher prevalence of 6's, 9's, and 10's would warrent standing. 8's appeared be fairly neutral.

3) Given that I'm not counting cards for purposes of altering my bets but with the intent of altering basic strategy, would it be more advantagous to play maybe a 2-deck game vs 6 decks?

Any thoughts on my general logic? Can anyone point me to any sources that discuss optimal strategies for flat betters?

Hi nosnhoj,

I am not an expert on the stats (Ken is the one to talk to about that) but as a "card counter in training" I have to wonder why you would even consider counting cards and altering BS if you only plan on hitting a casino once a year. It would seem to me that you should just stay with BS and have fun....That is unless you have a monster bankroll and plan on taking home a ton of money once a year

Don't get me wrong...if you want to learn to count by all means do so I just can't imagine that it would make that much of a difference for the casual player??? Anyone else have any insight on this?

Oh and the answer to question 3 is always play against 2 decks instead of 6 decks if you have the choice...that I do know

I am curious as to what the experts have to say...

No Expert

Nosnhoj,

I'm certainly no expert. You and I do have about the same objective though I play a lot more in casinos than one weekend a year. I bet conservatively but play agressively.

A large part of the game you and I play is played before you ever sit at a table. That would be the process of choosing your table. All other things being equal, you should look for a game with the fewest number of decks. That might not be practical though because in a lot of casinos, the fewer the decks, the higher the minimum bets. Or the weirder the table rules!

To help choose, I would look at the "House Advantage" calculators. I think there is one on this site or on the Tournament Blackjack site. I know there is one on "The Wizzard of Odds" site. You will see right off the bat that there is something like a .20% advantage to playing 2-deck versus 6-deck. There is another big savings if you can find a game in which the dealer stands on all 17's. With just those two options in your favor, you might find that you are playing against a house advantage of .14% in a DD game versus a .62% advantage in a 6-deck game.

With that stated, I will also say that has been my experience that my chipstack varies a LOT more when playing Double Deck games...though I play them anyway any time I can find one!

As for "Play Strategy", I wouldn't even dream of missing out on a split or double down opportunity. That is where the Basic Strategy player makes up for the built in advantage to the house. Granted, you will loose some of the hands you've Doubled and Split....but you will win more by doing it than if you don't. So yeah, split the 8's. Double the 9's against a 6. Split the 4's against 5 or 6. It'll pay off quicker than you might think. Don't get caught up in the "shoulda, coulda woulda's". Finish one hand and go on to the next one and don't waste time thinking about chasing rabbits (what the next card is after you've made a decision to stand).

Unless you are on a tremendously hot streak, get up and move around for a half hour or so every hour or two. Play some craps or Video Poker. You're only doing this once a year so try to take in a little more than just BJ.

By the way, you're listening to the idiot now who sits down and plays for 16 hours straight at the same table...but I'm infatuated with the game and play it for the joy of playing! So take my advise as being worth about that which you've paid for it.

Yeah, I have had my share of 12+ hour sittings

Optimal strategy for a flat bettor is Gregorian Strategy.